April 4: Keep Bashing Musk Til He’s Gone
This week’s election results in Wisconsin had a pretty clear message for Democrats, as I explained at New York:
The most tiresome intra-Democratic debate of them all soon reached crisis levels after Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory. Should the “party of the people” focus on the threat to democratic institutions MAGA authoritarians most definitely pose? Or should they instead pursue lost non-college-educated voters via the ancient “populist” formula of class warfare over purely economic issues? The debate has often become very personal, with “populists” tending to dismiss arguments about democracy as elitist mumbo jumbo unintelligible to working stiffs who just want to see the money, and people frightened about fascism worrying that Americans will cheerfully sell out our heritage of liberty for $2 a gallon gas.
Fortunately, and just in the nick of time, a figure has emerged at the highest levels of government who can instantly unite “populists” and “defenders of democracy.” That would be Elon Musk, who is simultaneously the richest man on earth (and in modern history) and an even greater threat to democratic institutions than Trump. He is, moreover, via the DOGE initiative, waging aggressive war on public-sector programs that restrain his tiny class of corporate predators and benefit the general public while violating every constitutional norm imaginable. And suffusing this entire assault on the people and the institutions to which Democrats should feel loyalty is a nihilistic personality exhibiting some of the worst impulses of the human race: narcissism, messianism, ethnocentrism, worship of power and technology, and a testosterone-poisoned lust for combat and destruction. It’s as though Bruce Wayne had decided to become the Joker instead of Batman.
Terrifying as Musk is, Democrats should thank their lucky stars that he doesn’t simply operate in the background of the MAGA movement, financing Trump’s antics but otherwise remaining anonymous. No: He has insisted on a very public place on the stages of politics, commerce, and culture, rivaled only by his benefactor and enabler in the White House. And the more people see of him, the less they seem to like him.
This week’s judicial election in Wisconsin shows what happens when this peculiar man makes himself the center of attention in a popularity contest not limited to his sycophants on X. The most polarized electorate in the entire nation fed by the most expensive campaign ever to revolve around judges decided by a healthy margin that they did not want Elon Musk in charge of their destiny (much less the “destiny of humanity” he so fatuously claimed was at stake). And better yet, the dispirited ranks of Democrats turned out disproportionately at the polls in the first electoral test since last November’s disaster.
It’s now clear that so long as Musk is the most powerful figure in the administration and the living symbol of Trump 2.0, Democrats should make Musk-bashing even more of a daily preoccupation than it has already become. Populists can draw fresh attention to the very real class implications of DOGE’s assault on corporate regulation and on practical services like Social Security offices accessible to old folks and medical facilities that can keep middle-class people alive. Defenders of democratic institutions can continue to expose (and attack in courts) the arrogant pretense that self-appointed engineers who brag about their destructive intentions should be entrusted with “reforming” government. And everyone can keep exposing the deeply sinister tech-bro worldview Musk and his accomplices exemplify, aimed at converting the United States of America into a privately held corporate oligarchy governed by insanely wealthy elites deploying AI at will and treating life itself as a video game in which the losers are the rest of us.
Musk-bashing won’t solve all the problems facing Democrats. They still need to regain public trust about their own values and competence. For one thing, DOGE’s very existence remains a terrible indictment of the contempt for government that is now so epidemic, and that Democrats have for so long either ignored or tried to buy off with popular benefits; they need their own credible “government reform” agenda and the determination to carry it out.
But make no mistake: Elon Musk is a political gift, particularly if his ego and Trump’s reliance on his support mean he will insist on keeping himself front and center, showing up at Cabinet meetings and MAGA rallies alike while indulging his endless glossolalia on X. So long as he remains the face of Trump 2.0, Democrats would be wise to make sure that face is the first thing Americans think of when they survey the political landscape. If Musk and DOGE crash or are subdued by the jealous god in the Oval Office (as some reports suggest Trump has signaled may happen), that is a very good thing in itself and a worthy goal for the opposition.
Beware the October Surprise.
If the New Republic is right and the Pakistanis produce senior members of Al Quaida to the command of Washington, then all is in play.
If bin Ladin turns up dead or alive on 30th October, Bush will win. Regardless of how far down in the polls Bush is, I think that would turn it.
I would certainly encourage Mr. Dowd to continue with such predictions….
It makes getting “there” (if there is down 15 points) all the more easier, but no amount of spinning, ‘pre-planning’, or acting the part of an oracle makes recovering from that 15 point deficit any easier.
I occasionally enjoy taking a stroll down right-leaning blogs to gauge the right’s reaction to stories, events and what-not… and the reaction to Dowd’s comments have been more or the less the same as mine, though with a GOP face.
The wheels are truly coming off — we’re starting to get more and more of these “process stories”, these “inside baseball” type pieces focusing on the GOP side of the aisle that then become angry internal wrangling…. not unlike the Dem MO pre-primary season dating back to 2000.
The key is that the dem surrogates take items like Dowd’s analysis and run with it (piecemeal, of course)…..
“I think Matthew Dowd is absolutely correct — GWB is doomed to be down 15 points by August.”
Period.
That’s increased reluctance, of course, or decreased willingness…
Have convention bounces increased or decreased over the years? Is there any general trend? It seems to me that since a national party convention is essentially a show for TV, the fragmentation of the viewing audience, the decline of the broadcast networks, and the decreased reluctance to devote lots of time to this sort of thing would render them less relevant over the past decade or so.
“One post-Dem convention poll had Dukakis up 17 points; others had Dukakis up by less. The distinction is that George Bush Sr. was not the incumbent, he was the Vice President. The point made in the post is that no incumbent behind by that much has gone on to win.”
This is putting a tremendous amount of weight on the incumbency factor alone. Given that Bush was the VP, one would expect at least some of the incumbency effect to apply to him. Since there are so few cases anyway of Presidential elections, and fewer still of incumbent Presidents running, I wonder if the Dukakis vs Bush campaign is not at least as much relevant as the absence of any case in which an incumbent President is down by over 10% after the challenger’s convention and still wins.
“I suppose it’s all about the expectations game: predict some outlandish bad outcome for your candidate and then when it doesn’t occur claim things are going your way.”
Hannity (hey, I was driving home and nothing else was on) was doing just this tonight on his radio show. Only, he said the typical bounce from naming a VP was fifteen points — an odd manipualation of Dowd’s odd number. He went on to say that the failur of this 15 point bounce to occur is a clear sign of the public’s distaste for the ticket with “the numbers 1 and 4 liberals in the senate” on it.
AB
about whether “Dowd now believes Kerry is up by 8 points?”, it seems that article that you cited or Dowd’s email points out that the challenger gains ~7 and the incumbent loses 8. And he states that he believes that they are tied.
… should read “Kerry ahead 47 to 44”.
AP-Ipsos poll, with leaners, Mon – Wed: Bush ahead 46 to 45.
AP-Ipsos poll, with leaners, Tues – Wed: Kerry ahead 47 to 47.
http://2.004k.com/national/
One post-Dem convention poll had Dukakis up 17 points; others had Dukakis up by less.
The distinction is that George Bush Sr. was not the incumbent, he was the Vice President. The point made in the post is that no incumbent behind by that much has gone on to win.
One question I have: what was Dukakis’ lead over Bush I after the Dem convention?
I had the impression it was over 10%, maybe well over. Is this not true?
isn’t this just more of the “soft bigotry of low expectations?”
sounds to me like Dowd is trying to skew the CW that if Kerry doesn’t get that 15 point bounce, he’s toast. same thing they did to Gore in the last coup (I mean election).
The banality of american electoral politics:
40% R / 40% D are intransigent. Of the remaining 20%, half are split 50/50, hence the 45-45 poll results. The remaining 10% are in play and the last 3 months of the campaign, including the convention kabuki theater is for their benefit. Who the fuck are these people and why do they get to decide the fate of the country?
I wish someone would go through and catalog the predictions that Dowd has made. It seems he comes out with one of these every few months; usually in the right direction, but with a loaded dice to spin his guys way when it lands.
Ruy
I just came from seeing 3000 women pay money, get up at the crack of dawn to cheer on Kerry and Edwards here in NYC. Biggest event of its kind ever.
This huge level of enthusiasm is hard to square with the AP poll which is just now on the MSNBC home page which shows Bush ahead by 49-45. Poll taken Monday prior to the announcement and then Tuesday and Wednesday. How can that be?
And what is the agenda of the home page editor touting this poll when their own NBC poll shows Kerry ahead.
I hope you write about this. I think polls like the AP can be used to push poll public opinion and set up confusion about the electoral outcome.
I think people like you need to start defensive debunking.
What’s depressing is how mindless the media has been about repeating Dowd’s spin – without even stopping to think about, much less check, the facts.
That’s the great GOP advantage in this election: Their media strategy assumes that journalists are clueless, selfish oafs with the long-term memory of a sea sponge.
And what do you know – they’re right.
I agree with the last poster. There’s nothing scientific or historical about this. Dowd’s just trying to raise expactations knowing Kerry probably won’t get that high of a bounce, and then Dowd can go back to the press and say the bounce wasn’t as high as expected. However, i do enjoy Fabrizio uptight about Dowd’s comments…
Bounce numbers historically fall off at a rate of 1 to 2 points per week after the convention. Perhaps Dowd is figuring that by the time Bush gets his bounce (which I predict will be much less than normal) Kerry’s bounce will be gone or at least in reach.
Fact is that there is simply not room for a 15 point bounce for Kerry, not enough independents out there. This is an expectations game and Dowd wants Kerry’s 8 or 9 points to look enemic.
Has anyone attempted to get Dowd to answer the question “Where did you get the fifteen point number from?” I know it is hard to get a hold of some people, and the speculation is interesting, but maybe Dowd has something to back up the claim.
Ruy….we have a chat going on over at dKos. Might you fill us in on your polling methods? How do you find people to answer your polls? I’ll respost your response, if you should give one.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/7/9/11533/48230