Don’t look now, but it’s already time for the DNC and the states to figure out the 2028 Democratic presidential primary calendar, so I wrote an overview at New York:
The first 2028 presidential primaries are just two years away. And for the first time since 2016, both parties are expected to have serious competition for their nominations. While Vice-President J.D. Vance is likely to enter the cycle as a formidable front-runner for the GOP nod, recent history suggests there will be lots of other candidates. After all, Donald Trump drew 12 challengers in 2024. On the Democratic side, there is no one like Vance (or Hillary Clinton going into 2016 or Joe Biden going into 2020) who is likely to become the solid front-runner from the get-go, though Californians Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris lead all of the way too early polls.
But 2028 horse-race speculation really starts with the track itself, as the calendar for state contests still isn’t set. What some observers call the presidential-nominating “system” isn’t something the national parties control. In the case of primaries utilizing state-financed election machinery, state laws govern the timing and procedures. Caucuses (still abundant on the Republican side and rarer among Democrats) are usually run by state parties. National parties can vitally influence the calendar via carrots (bonus delegates at the national convention) or sticks (loss of delegates) and try to create “windows” for different kinds of states to hold their nominating contests to space things out and make the initial contests competitive and representative. But it’s sometimes hit or miss.
Until quite recently, the two parties tended to move in sync on such calendar and map decisions. But Democrats have exhibited a lot more interest in ensuring that the “early states” — the ones that kick off the nominating process and often determine the outcome — are representative of the party and the country as a whole and give candidates something like a level playing field. Prior to 2008, both parties agreed to do away with the traditional duopoly, in which the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary came first, by allowing early contests representing other regions (Nevada and South Carolina). And both parties tolerated the consolidation of other states seeking influence into a somewhat later “Super Tuesday” cluster of contests. But in 2024 Democrats tossed Iowa out of the early-state window altogether and placed South Carolina first (widely interpreted as Joe Biden’s thank-you to the Palmetto State for its crucial role in saving his campaign in 2020 after poor performances in other early states), with Nevada and New Hampshire voting the same day soon thereafter. Republicans stuck with the same old calendar with Trump more or less nailing down the nomination after Iowa and New Hampshire.
For 2028, Republicans will likely stand pat while Democrats reshuffle the deck (the 2024 calendar was explicitly a one-time-only proposition). The Democratic National Committee has set a January 16 deadline for states to apply for early-state status. And as the New York Times’ Shane Goldmacher explains, there is uncertainty about the identity of the early states and particularly their order:
“The debate has only just begun. But early whisper campaigns about the weaknesses of the various options already offer a revealing window into some of the party’s racial, regional and rural-urban divides, according to interviews with more than a dozen state party chairs, D.N.C. members and others involved in the selection process.
“Nevada is too far to travel. New Hampshire is too entitled and too white. South Carolina is too Republican. Iowa is also too white — and its time has passed.
“Why not a top battleground? Michigan entered the early window in 2024, but critics see it as too likely to bring attention to the party’s fractures over Israel. North Carolina or Georgia would need Republicans to change their election laws.”
Nevada and New Hampshire have been most aggressive about demanding a spot at the beginning of the calendar, and both will likely remain in the early-state window, representing their regions. The DNC could push South Carolina aside in favor of regional rivals Georgia or North Carolina. Michigan is close to a lock for an early midwestern primary, but its size, cost, and sizable Muslim population (which will press candidates on their attitude towards Israel’s recent conduct) would probably make it a dubious choice to go first. Recently excluded Iowa (already suspect because it’s very white and trending Republican, then bounced decisively after its caucus reporting system melted down in 2020) could stage a “beauty contest” that will attract candidates and media even if it doesn’t award delegates.
Even as the early-state drama unwinds, the rest of the Democratic nomination calendar is morphing as well. As many as 14 states are currently scheduled to hold contests on Super Tuesday, March 7. And a 15th state, New York, may soon join the parade. Before it’s all nailed down (likely just after the 2026 midterms), decisions on the calendar will begin to influence candidate strategies and vice versa. Some western candidates (e.g., Gavin Newsom or Ruben Gallego) could be heavily invested in Nevada, while Black proto-candidates like Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and Wes Moore might pursue a southern primary. Progressive favorites like AOC or Ro Khanna may have their own favorite launching pads, while self-identified centrists like Josh Shapiro or Pete Buttigieg might have others. Having a home state in the early going is at best a mixed blessing: Losing your home-state primary is a candidate-killer, and winning it doesn’t prove a lot. And it’s also worth remembering that self-financed candidates like J.B. Pritzker may need less of a runway to stage a nationally viable campaign.
So sketching out the tracks for all those 2028 horses, particularly among Democrats, is a bit of a game of three-dimensional chess. We won’t know how well they’ll run here or there until it’s all over.
Beware the October Surprise.
If the New Republic is right and the Pakistanis produce senior members of Al Quaida to the command of Washington, then all is in play.
If bin Ladin turns up dead or alive on 30th October, Bush will win. Regardless of how far down in the polls Bush is, I think that would turn it.
I would certainly encourage Mr. Dowd to continue with such predictions….
It makes getting “there” (if there is down 15 points) all the more easier, but no amount of spinning, ‘pre-planning’, or acting the part of an oracle makes recovering from that 15 point deficit any easier.
I occasionally enjoy taking a stroll down right-leaning blogs to gauge the right’s reaction to stories, events and what-not… and the reaction to Dowd’s comments have been more or the less the same as mine, though with a GOP face.
The wheels are truly coming off — we’re starting to get more and more of these “process stories”, these “inside baseball” type pieces focusing on the GOP side of the aisle that then become angry internal wrangling…. not unlike the Dem MO pre-primary season dating back to 2000.
The key is that the dem surrogates take items like Dowd’s analysis and run with it (piecemeal, of course)…..
“I think Matthew Dowd is absolutely correct — GWB is doomed to be down 15 points by August.”
Period.
That’s increased reluctance, of course, or decreased willingness…
Have convention bounces increased or decreased over the years? Is there any general trend? It seems to me that since a national party convention is essentially a show for TV, the fragmentation of the viewing audience, the decline of the broadcast networks, and the decreased reluctance to devote lots of time to this sort of thing would render them less relevant over the past decade or so.
“One post-Dem convention poll had Dukakis up 17 points; others had Dukakis up by less. The distinction is that George Bush Sr. was not the incumbent, he was the Vice President. The point made in the post is that no incumbent behind by that much has gone on to win.”
This is putting a tremendous amount of weight on the incumbency factor alone. Given that Bush was the VP, one would expect at least some of the incumbency effect to apply to him. Since there are so few cases anyway of Presidential elections, and fewer still of incumbent Presidents running, I wonder if the Dukakis vs Bush campaign is not at least as much relevant as the absence of any case in which an incumbent President is down by over 10% after the challenger’s convention and still wins.
“I suppose it’s all about the expectations game: predict some outlandish bad outcome for your candidate and then when it doesn’t occur claim things are going your way.”
Hannity (hey, I was driving home and nothing else was on) was doing just this tonight on his radio show. Only, he said the typical bounce from naming a VP was fifteen points — an odd manipualation of Dowd’s odd number. He went on to say that the failur of this 15 point bounce to occur is a clear sign of the public’s distaste for the ticket with “the numbers 1 and 4 liberals in the senate” on it.
AB
about whether “Dowd now believes Kerry is up by 8 points?”, it seems that article that you cited or Dowd’s email points out that the challenger gains ~7 and the incumbent loses 8. And he states that he believes that they are tied.
… should read “Kerry ahead 47 to 44”.
AP-Ipsos poll, with leaners, Mon – Wed: Bush ahead 46 to 45.
AP-Ipsos poll, with leaners, Tues – Wed: Kerry ahead 47 to 47.
http://2.004k.com/national/
One post-Dem convention poll had Dukakis up 17 points; others had Dukakis up by less.
The distinction is that George Bush Sr. was not the incumbent, he was the Vice President. The point made in the post is that no incumbent behind by that much has gone on to win.
One question I have: what was Dukakis’ lead over Bush I after the Dem convention?
I had the impression it was over 10%, maybe well over. Is this not true?
isn’t this just more of the “soft bigotry of low expectations?”
sounds to me like Dowd is trying to skew the CW that if Kerry doesn’t get that 15 point bounce, he’s toast. same thing they did to Gore in the last coup (I mean election).
The banality of american electoral politics:
40% R / 40% D are intransigent. Of the remaining 20%, half are split 50/50, hence the 45-45 poll results. The remaining 10% are in play and the last 3 months of the campaign, including the convention kabuki theater is for their benefit. Who the fuck are these people and why do they get to decide the fate of the country?
I wish someone would go through and catalog the predictions that Dowd has made. It seems he comes out with one of these every few months; usually in the right direction, but with a loaded dice to spin his guys way when it lands.
Ruy
I just came from seeing 3000 women pay money, get up at the crack of dawn to cheer on Kerry and Edwards here in NYC. Biggest event of its kind ever.
This huge level of enthusiasm is hard to square with the AP poll which is just now on the MSNBC home page which shows Bush ahead by 49-45. Poll taken Monday prior to the announcement and then Tuesday and Wednesday. How can that be?
And what is the agenda of the home page editor touting this poll when their own NBC poll shows Kerry ahead.
I hope you write about this. I think polls like the AP can be used to push poll public opinion and set up confusion about the electoral outcome.
I think people like you need to start defensive debunking.
What’s depressing is how mindless the media has been about repeating Dowd’s spin – without even stopping to think about, much less check, the facts.
That’s the great GOP advantage in this election: Their media strategy assumes that journalists are clueless, selfish oafs with the long-term memory of a sea sponge.
And what do you know – they’re right.
I agree with the last poster. There’s nothing scientific or historical about this. Dowd’s just trying to raise expactations knowing Kerry probably won’t get that high of a bounce, and then Dowd can go back to the press and say the bounce wasn’t as high as expected. However, i do enjoy Fabrizio uptight about Dowd’s comments…
Bounce numbers historically fall off at a rate of 1 to 2 points per week after the convention. Perhaps Dowd is figuring that by the time Bush gets his bounce (which I predict will be much less than normal) Kerry’s bounce will be gone or at least in reach.
Fact is that there is simply not room for a 15 point bounce for Kerry, not enough independents out there. This is an expectations game and Dowd wants Kerry’s 8 or 9 points to look enemic.
Has anyone attempted to get Dowd to answer the question “Where did you get the fifteen point number from?” I know it is hard to get a hold of some people, and the speculation is interesting, but maybe Dowd has something to back up the claim.
Ruy….we have a chat going on over at dKos. Might you fill us in on your polling methods? How do you find people to answer your polls? I’ll respost your response, if you should give one.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/7/9/11533/48230