The reaction among Democrats to Donald Trumpâs return to power has been significantly more subdued than what we saw in 2016 after the mogulâs first shocking electoral win. The old-school “resistance” is dead, and itâs not clear what will replace it. But Democratic elected officials are developing new strategies for dealing with the new realities in Washington. Here are five distinct approaches that have emerged, even before Trumpâs second administration has begun.
Some Democrats are so thoroughly impressed by the current power of the MAGA movement they are choosing to surrender to it in significant respects. The prime example is Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, the onetime fiery populist politician who is now becoming conspicuous in his desire to admit his partyâs weaknesses and snuggle up to the new regime. The freshman and one-time ally of Bernie Sanders has been drifting away from the left wing of his party for a good while, particularly via his vocally unconditional backing for Israel during its war in Gaza. But now heâs making news regularly for taking steps in Trumpâs direction.
Quite a few Democrats publicly expressed dismay over Joe Bidenâs pardon of his son Hunter, but Fetterman distinguished himself by calling for a corresponding pardon for Trump over his hush-money conviction in New York. Similarly, many Democrats have discussed ways to reach out to the voters they have lost to Trump. Fettermanâs approach was to join Trumpâs Truth Social platform, which is a fever swamp for the president-electâs most passionate supporters. Various Democrats are cautiously circling Elon Musk, Trumpâs new best friend and potential slayer of the civil-service system and the New DealâGreat Society legacy of federal programs. But Fetterman seems to want to become Muskâs buddy, too, exchanging compliments with him in a sort of weird courtship. Fetterman has also gone out of his way to exhibit openness to support for Trumpâs controversial Cabinet nominees even as nearly every other Senate Democrat takes the tack of forcing Republicans to take a stand on people like Pete Hegseth before weighing in themselves.
Itâs probably germane to Fettermanâs conduct that he will be up for reelection in 2028, a presidential-election year in a state Trump carried on November 5. Or maybe heâs just burnishing his credentials as the maverick who blew up the Senate dress code.
Other Democrats are being much more selectively friendly to Trump, searching for âcommon groundâ on issues where they believe he will be cross-pressured by his wealthy backers and more conventional Republicans. Like Fetterman, these Democrats â including Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren â tend to come from the progressive wing of the party and have longed chafed at the centrist economic policies advanced by Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and, to some extent, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Theyâve talked about strategically encouraging Trumpâs âpopulistâ impulses on such issues as credit-card interest and big-tech regulation, partly as a matter of forcing the new president and his congressional allies to put up or shut up.
So the idea is to push off a discredited Democratic Establishment, at least on economic issues, and either accomplish things for working-class voters in alliance with Trump or prove the hollowness of his âpopulism.â
Colorado governor Jared Solis has offered a similar strategy of selective cooperation by praising the potential agenda of Trump HHS secretary nominee, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., as helpfully âshaking upâ the medical and scientific Establishment.
At the other end of the spectrum, some centrist Democrats are pushing off what they perceive as a discredited progressive ascendancy in the party, especially on culture-war issues and immigration. The most outspoken of them showed up at last weekâs annual meeting of the avowedly nonpartisan No Labels organization, which was otherwise dominated by Republicans seeking to demonstrate a bit of independence from the next administration. These include vocal critics of the 2024 Democratic message like House members Jared Golden, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Ritchie Torres, and Seth Moulton, along with wannabe 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Josh Gottheimer (his Virginia counterpart, Abigail Spanberger, wasnât at the No Labels confab but is similarly positioned ideologically).
From a strategic point of view, these militant centrists appear to envision a 2028 presidential campaign that will take back the voters Biden won in 2020 and Harris lost this year.
Weâre beginning to see the emergence of a faction of Democrats that is willing to cut policy or legislative deals with Team Trump in order to protect some vulnerable constituencies from MAGA wrath. This is particularly visible on the immigration front; some congressional Democrats are talking about cutting a deal to support some of Trumpâs agenda in exchange for continued protection from deportation of DREAMers. Politico reports:
“The prize that many Democrats would like to secure is protecting Dreamers â Americans who came with their families to the U.S. at a young age and have since been protected by the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program created by President Barack Obama in 2012.
“Trump himself expressed an openness to ‘do something about the Dreamers’ in a recent ‘Meet the Press’ interview. But he would almost certainly want significant policy concessions in return, including border security measures and changes to asylum law that Democrats have historically resisted.”
On a broader front, the New York Times has found significant support among Democratic governors to selectively cooperate with the new administrationâs âmass deportationâ plans in exchange for concessions:
“In interviews, 11 Democratic governors, governors-elect and candidates for the office often expressed defiance toward Mr. Trumpâs expected immigration crackdown â but were also strikingly willing to highlight areas of potential cooperation.
“Several balanced messages of compassion for struggling migrants with a tough-on-crime tone. They said that they were willing to work with the Trump administration to deport people who had been convicted of serious crimes and that they wanted stricter border control, even as they vowed to defend migrant families and those fleeing violence in their home countries, as well as businesses that rely on immigrant labor.”
While the Democrats planning strategic cooperation with Trump are getting a lot of attention, itâs clear the bulk of elected officials and activists are more quietly waiting for the initial fallout from the new regime to develop while planning ahead for a Democratic comeback. This is particularly true among the House Democratic leadership, which hopes to exploit the extremely narrow Republican majority in the chamber (which will be exacerbated by vacancies for several months until Trump appointees can be replaced in special elections) on must-pass House votes going forward, while looking ahead with a plan to aggressively contest marginal Republican-held seats in the 2026 midterms. Historical precedents indicate very high odds that Democrats can flip the House in 2026, bringing a relatively quick end to any Republican legislative steamrolling on Trumpâs behalf and signaling good vibes for 2028.
This is a great website. Thanks so much. I’d happily chip in, if so required.
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&ie=UTF-8&q=Adam+parkhomenko
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&ie=UTF-8&q=Adam+parkhomenko
Here’s the AP/Ipsos poll:
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2314
Summary:
Yep, Bush is ahead.
His handling of the economy is up, as is general consumer confidence.
Yep, Kerry is making headway.
His strong support represents 64% of his voters now, up from only 55% of his voters strong in June.
That’s based on Monday-Wednesday poll. On Tuesday-Wednesday only, an additional question was added with full tickets paired. No difference (+4 Bush/Cheney over Kerry/Edwards) than full poll, and down from +3 Kerry/Edwards in June.
Read the whole thing. I think larger trends (improving consumer expectations, handover in Iraq) are more important than first impressions of Edwards in explaining current trends. (Check out the graph called “Consumer Attitudes and Political Measures Chart”)
Let’s see how the rest of July plays out.
See “Kerry’s Non-Southern Strategy”, on how Edwards will help the ticket, by Kenneth Baer in TAP online:
http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&name=ViewWeb&articleId=8078
It’s a bit David Brooks-ish in its pop sociological assertions but worth the read nonetheless.
No, it’s a positive theme that we can do something about the divisions in our country, but ignoring them (which seems to be the conservative approcah) will not make them go away.
MARCU$,
Good point; optimistic messages sell well. But do you consider Edwards’ “two Americas” message to be an optimistic one? I don’t. He speaks of the haves and the have-nots, us and them. It’s a divisive, negative theme.
> Edwards has less experience than Dan Quayle.
Conservative TV host Joe Scarborough (of all people!) has a great response:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5389875/
“Today, President Bush took a shot at John Edwards, suggesting the U.S. senator was ill-prepared to be vice president of the United States.”
“The attack was a cheap shot: John Edwards has served the same amount of time in the Senate as George W. Bush served as governor of Texas when he was elected president. The Texas legislature only meets every other year and the governorship of the Lone Star State has long been considered one of the weakest positions of its kind in America. Add to it that Edwards has sat on the intelligence committee through the days before and after September 11th. You could argue that Edwards has more experience in key areas than George W. Bush did when he ran in 2000.”
“Other vice presidents, like Harry Truman, were dismissed as political hacks and lightweights, too, because of their relative lack of experience. But when the Senator from Missouri replaced one of the greatest presidents of the 20th century, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Truman exceeded all expectations and ended up being one of our country’s strongest leaders.”
———————————————————-
> And Edwards’ populist message may sound great
> on the stump but rarely wins votes (ask Al Gore
> or Pat Buchanan).
True, *negative* populism doesn’t sell. But a case could be made that Edwards’ optimistic brand of populism matches that of Clinton and Reagan.
MARCU$
I think Bush’s comment would make a winning campaign slogan.
“Kerry-Edwards ’04:
Otherwise, Cheney Can be President!”
That’s a winner.
Missed the AP Ipsos-Reid poll, which is much worse than the ones you report. It had Bush up 4 and at 50% (albeit with Ralph).
Just want to check arithmetic on the CBS poll. Unless I’ve gone completely off my rocker, isn’t Edwards fav/unfav of 38/9 a net of +29, not +19?
That’s gotta be JamesB3 from dailykos…
Drudge is touting a new AP poll (along w/Faux News, always the most Bush-loving poll) that says Bush has GAINED with Edwards on the ticket, leads Kerry, and has gained confidence on domestic issues and the economy.
The media will make sure that this and the Zogby (who is totally unreliable in good or bad news if you ask new) poll are the only polls that matter, and will try to tell people that Edwards actually helps Bush.
The truth is that it’s just too polarized for any VP candidate to make a real difference.
“Cheney can be president”
Probably the most unintentionally scary thing he could say! đ Let the american people take it as a warning! Yet another unsonsidered statement that will come back quickly to bite W in the ass.
Re: Edwards experience – just to reiterate what has already been stated upthread:
Edwards: 6 years as U.S. Senator
Bush: 6 years as Governor of Texas
Edwards: Successful ($50 million) career as a plaintiff’s attorney.
Bush: Business failed.
Kerry: married into money.
Edwards: made his own fortune.
Bush: born with money.
S Robinson —
Matthew Dowd’s “15% bounce” comment sounds like pure pre-emptive expectations-raising spin to me. Don’t buy it.
I would also add that the prevaling wisdom in 2000 was that who was President would not matter all that much. Times had been so easy with the peace and prosperity that people thought we could put it on autopilot and people could register disgust at Clinton’s affair.
The last four years have disabused us of that notion, and the consensus is that this is an election that matters, and I think a lot of minds have been cast, mostly on the basis of an up or down on Bush — Kerry just needs to not be objectionable.
storwino makes an important point – there is not a lot of room for big changes in this electorate.
Bush and Kerry each probably have 40% of likely voters who are very unlikely to switch in the runnup. Another 5% are pretty devoted to each, leaving about 10% of likely voters in play. So, big bounces are probably not too likely.
If everything plays out normally the undecideds should break Kerry, but if Kerry gives those undecideds a reason not to vote for him – Dukakis in the tank kind of thing, or debate screw ups, it could swing the other way.
I seem to remember though, that under pressure GWB tends to get frustrated and is probably more apt to screw up, whereas Kerry has a reputation of improving when it gets important.
Nice comment, TinMan. The difference is that not many Republicans were taking Hatch seriously as a presidential candidate, while the comment I mentioned came from your (presumptive) nominee. You would have done better to mention the elder Bush’s ‘voodoo economics’ line about Reagan’s tax cuts!
When you hear Republicans disparage Sen. John Edwards’s lack of experience, remember the words of Sen. Orrin Hatch, spoken to George W. Bush at a debate on Dec. 6, 1999.
“You’ve been a great governor,” Hatch declared of his rival for the Republican presidential nomination. “My only problem with you, governor, is that you’ve only had four and going into your fifth year of governorship. . . . Frankly, I really believe that you need more experience before you become president of the United States. That’s why I’m thinking of you as a vice presidential candidate.”
I guess it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Kerry-Edwards would get a quick bounce. Even Matthew Dowd, Bush’s chief strategist, estimates that Kerry may gain a 15-point bounce between naming his VP and the media attention from the convention. My surprise is all the excitement Edwards is generating among the Dems. Edwards has less experience than Dan Quayle. Didn’t Kerry make a comment about Edwards still being in diapers when Kerry came back from Vietnam? And Edwards’ populist message may sound great on the stump but rarely wins votes (ask Al Gore or Pat Buchanan).
As far as ‘earning’ their money, you know the GOP will spin this as one marrying into money (twice!) and the other making it from contingency fees.
The initial reaction was positive, but the long term traction depends on how the ticket is sold – and there appear to be a few great ways to build on the buzz.
1) Pound on the fact that both Kerry and Edwards have been a success in every job that they have ever had.
2) Repeat often that they both have excellent training – great grades, consistent focus on getting things done.
3) Reiterate that neither of them came from wealthy backgrounds – Kerry’s dad was in the State Dept, and one was a mill worker. One upper middle class, one lower middle class. But neither grew up wealthy. Instead they went and earned it.
Of course, these are not too subtle contrasts.
Here’s a press release from Zogby.
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews839.html
I tend to agree with Zogby’s take that there just isn’t room for a lot of movement in our electorate today.
I was interested to note at the very bottom they mention the “slight weights” they added to account for region, party, age, race, religion, gender and presidential voter. This sounds really suspect to me. Trying to be conservative, I guessed there would be:
4 categories for region,
3 categories for party,
4 categories for age,
4 categories for race,
2 categories for religion,
2 for gender, and
2 for presidential voter.
Based on that I arrived at 1536 unique categories. I would say that the margins of error in those sub-groups would be higher.
I’m guessing he applies some kind of clustering based on all those factors. Does anyone know anything about what he’s doing?
What are the chances that Bush will drop Cheney, as some Republican bloggers are fantasizing?
Found it– Google “Zogby Edwards July,” then click on the News link (Bloomberg reports the whole poll, which says no bounce– nothing about night one vs night two, though).
Where can we see that Zogby two-night poll?
> “Mr. Bush, is it true, as the New Republic reports,
> that you are playing election year politics with the
> security of the United States? Why was going after
> these high value targets not a concern for years,
> invading Iraq instead, but when you have fallen
> behind in the polls, has it become necessary to
> capture him before the election.
Josh Marshall made the same exact point the other day. Why is getting Osama suddenly such a high priority when it clearly wasn’t in the spring of 2003??
I agree it is probably better if Kerry raises the point in advance. His campaign might perhaps want to repeat this basic message in a number of attack ads, to thoroughly raise the point that the Bushies are “extremely concerned about terrorists” only when it suits their partisan goals at home… Osama was clearly a unwelcome distraction in early 2003, for example, when voters had to be reminded about the real and perceived dangers of Saddam at every opportunity.
MARCU$
Would you comment on the new Zogby 2-nite poll? He suggests a large bounce for Kerry/Edwards on the first night, followed by an even GREATER swing toward Bush on the second night?
Marcus,
Kerry shoudl do something with that article. Something along the lines of
“Mr. Bush, is it true, as the New Republic reports, that you are playing election year politics with the security of the United States? Why was going after these high value targets not a concern for years, invading Iraq instead, but when you have fallen behind in the polls, has it become necessary to capture him before the election.
“The American people will forgive a lot in their President, but they will not forgive a President putting his own election concerns above the security of the United States. These are serious charges and I urge you to repudiate them, and to get to the bottom of why they are being leveled. You might want to do the same with the Plame case. Furthermore I ask you to repudiate your failures in the area of American security, and to change courses to one of greater security for Americans above partisan electioneering. You might not win the election, Mr. President, but it will go along way toward regaing your honor and dignity.”
Perhaps a rewrite or two đ
I am really nervous about July 27, though. THE NEW REPUBLIC reports the Administration is working as hard as it can to pressure Pakistan to capture Bin Laden and/or other leading Al Qaeda operatives before Kerry/Edwards are officially nominated in Boston three weeks from now, or before the November elections at the very latest. And the Paki’s have some incentives to comply, since they reportedly are worried about Kerry/Edwards favoring India if they win the elections (Democratic presidents usually feel less inclined to do business with military dictators in Pakistan than do Republican ones).
MARCU$
Thanks for the breakdown. I have nothing to add to the conversation except that I am a bit surprised by my own gut feeling that it’s s a good choice. Pleasantly surprised.