Everyone knows that Donald Trump can’t be trusted on abortion policy (or many other things). But his particular lies on abortion are worth noting, as I explained at New York.
There is no exercise more exhausting and probably futile than examining a Donald Trump speech or social-media post for lies, half-truths, and incoherent self-contradictions. But itâs important on occasion to highlight some very big whoppers he tells that are central to his political strategy. Itâs well known that Trumpâs own position on abortion policy has wandered all over the map, and itâs plausible to suggest his approach is entirely transactional. Now that heâs staked out a âstatesâ rightsâ position on abortion that is designed to take a losing issue off the table in the 2024 presidential election, heâs telling two very specific lies to justify his latest flip-flop.
The first is his now-routine claim that âboth sidesâ and even âlegal scholars on both sidesâ of the abortion debate âagreedâ that Roe v. Wade needed to be reversed, leaving abortion policy up to the states:
This claim was the centerpiece of Trumpâs April 9 statement setting out his position on abortion for the 2024 general election, as CNNÂ noted:
“In a video statement on abortion policy he posted on social media Monday, Trump said: ‘I was proudly the person responsible for the ending of something that all legal scholars, both sides, wanted and, in fact, demanded be ended: Roe v. Wade. They wanted it ended.’ Later in his statement, Trump said that since ‘we have abortion where everybody wanted it from a legal standpoint,’ states are free to determine their own abortion laws.”
This is clearly and demonstrably false. The three âlegal expertsâ on the Supreme Court who passionately dissented from the decision to reverse Roe are just the tip of the iceberg of anguish over the defiance of precedent and ideological reasoning underlying Justice Samuel Alito in the majority opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Womenâs Health Organization. The Society of American Law Teachers immediately and definitively issued a âcondemnationâ of the Dobbs decision. When the case was being argued before the Supreme Court, the American Bar Association filed an amicus brief arguing the constitutional doctrine of stare decisis required that Roe be left in place. None of these views were novel. Back in 1989 when an earlier threat to abortion rights had emerged, 885 law professors signed onto a brief defending Roe.
Sure, there was a tiny minority of âpro-choice, anti-Roeâ liberals over the years who claimed resentment of the power of the unelected judges who decided Roe would eventually threaten abortion rights (not as much, it turns out, as the unelected judges that decided Dobbs). And yes, there have always been progressive critics (notably Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg) of the particular reasoning in the original Roe decision, but by no means have any of them (particularly Ginsburg) favored abandoning the federal constitutional right to abortion even if they supported a different constitutional basis for that right. So Trumpâs claim is grossly nonfactual and is indeed not one that any self-respecting conservative fan of Dobbs would ever make.
The second big lie that Trump has formulated to defend his latest statesâ-rights position is that heâs just supporting the age-old Republican stance on the subject, as he has just asserted at Truth Social:
“Sending this Issue back to the States was the Policy of the Republican Party and Conservatives for over 50 years, due to Statesâ Rights and 10th Amendment, and only happened because of the Justices I proudly Nominated and got Confirmed.”
Yes, of course a growing majority of Republicans have favored reversal of Roe as a way station to a nationwide ban on abortion, but not as an end in itself. The GOP first came out for a federal constitutional amendment to ban abortion from sea to shining sea in its 1980 party platform, and every single Republican presidential nominee since then has backed the idea. There have been disagreements as to whether such a constitutional amendment should include exceptions for pregnancies caused by rape or incest. But the last GOP presidential nominee to share Trumpâs position that the states should be the final arbiter of abortion policy was Gerald R. Ford in 1976, as the New York Times reported at the time:
“[Ford] said that as President he must enforce the 1973 Supreme Court ruling that forbids states to ban abortions. But he has come out in favor of a constitutional amendment that would overturn that ruling and return to the states the option of drawing up their own abortion laws.”
Ronald Reagan, who challenged Fordâs nomination in 1976 and was already a proponent of a âpro-lifeâ constitutional amendment, and the GOP formally adopted that position in 1980; four years later, it adopted its long-standing proposal that by constitutional amendment or by a judicial ruling the protection of fetal life under the 14th Amendment should be recognized and imposed on the country regardless of what states wanted. Anti-abortion leader Marjorie Dannenfelser noted this well-known history in a not-so-subtle rebuke to Trumpâs revisionist history, as NBC News reported:
â’Since 1984, the GOP platform has affirmed that 14th Amendment protections apply to unborn babies and endorsed congressional action to clarify this fact through legislation,’ Marjorie Dannenfelser, the president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, said in a statement to NBC News. ‘Republicans led the charge to outlaw barbaric partial-birth abortions federally, and both chambers have voted multiple times to limit painful late-term abortion.âŻThe Senate voted on this most recently in 2020. In January 2023, House Republicans also voted to protect infants born alive during an abortion.’â
Itâs pretty clear that anti-abortion activists know Trump is lying about both Roe v. Wade and the GOP tradition and will support him anyway. But the rest of us should take due notice that the once and perhaps future presidentâs word on this subject, including his current pledge to leave abortion policy to the states, cannot be trusted for even a moment. Absent the abolition of the Senate filibuster (which, lest we forget, Trump backed as president out of impatience with the Senateâs refusal to bend the knee to his every demand), there isnât going to be a complete federal ban on abortion in the foreseeable future. But Trump can be counted on to use the powers of the presidency to make life miserable for women needing abortion services, among the many âenemies of the peopleâ he wants to punish.
This is a great website. Thanks so much. I’d happily chip in, if so required.
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&ie=UTF-8&q=Adam+parkhomenko
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&ie=UTF-8&q=Adam+parkhomenko
Here’s the AP/Ipsos poll:
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2314
Summary:
Yep, Bush is ahead.
His handling of the economy is up, as is general consumer confidence.
Yep, Kerry is making headway.
His strong support represents 64% of his voters now, up from only 55% of his voters strong in June.
That’s based on Monday-Wednesday poll. On Tuesday-Wednesday only, an additional question was added with full tickets paired. No difference (+4 Bush/Cheney over Kerry/Edwards) than full poll, and down from +3 Kerry/Edwards in June.
Read the whole thing. I think larger trends (improving consumer expectations, handover in Iraq) are more important than first impressions of Edwards in explaining current trends. (Check out the graph called “Consumer Attitudes and Political Measures Chart”)
Let’s see how the rest of July plays out.
See “Kerry’s Non-Southern Strategy”, on how Edwards will help the ticket, by Kenneth Baer in TAP online:
http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&name=ViewWeb&articleId=8078
It’s a bit David Brooks-ish in its pop sociological assertions but worth the read nonetheless.
No, it’s a positive theme that we can do something about the divisions in our country, but ignoring them (which seems to be the conservative approcah) will not make them go away.
MARCU$,
Good point; optimistic messages sell well. But do you consider Edwards’ “two Americas” message to be an optimistic one? I don’t. He speaks of the haves and the have-nots, us and them. It’s a divisive, negative theme.
> Edwards has less experience than Dan Quayle.
Conservative TV host Joe Scarborough (of all people!) has a great response:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5389875/
“Today, President Bush took a shot at John Edwards, suggesting the U.S. senator was ill-prepared to be vice president of the United States.”
“The attack was a cheap shot: John Edwards has served the same amount of time in the Senate as George W. Bush served as governor of Texas when he was elected president. The Texas legislature only meets every other year and the governorship of the Lone Star State has long been considered one of the weakest positions of its kind in America. Add to it that Edwards has sat on the intelligence committee through the days before and after September 11th. You could argue that Edwards has more experience in key areas than George W. Bush did when he ran in 2000.”
“Other vice presidents, like Harry Truman, were dismissed as political hacks and lightweights, too, because of their relative lack of experience. But when the Senator from Missouri replaced one of the greatest presidents of the 20th century, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Truman exceeded all expectations and ended up being one of our country’s strongest leaders.”
———————————————————-
> And Edwards’ populist message may sound great
> on the stump but rarely wins votes (ask Al Gore
> or Pat Buchanan).
True, *negative* populism doesn’t sell. But a case could be made that Edwards’ optimistic brand of populism matches that of Clinton and Reagan.
MARCU$
I think Bush’s comment would make a winning campaign slogan.
“Kerry-Edwards ’04:
Otherwise, Cheney Can be President!”
That’s a winner.
Missed the AP Ipsos-Reid poll, which is much worse than the ones you report. It had Bush up 4 and at 50% (albeit with Ralph).
Just want to check arithmetic on the CBS poll. Unless I’ve gone completely off my rocker, isn’t Edwards fav/unfav of 38/9 a net of +29, not +19?
That’s gotta be JamesB3 from dailykos…
Drudge is touting a new AP poll (along w/Faux News, always the most Bush-loving poll) that says Bush has GAINED with Edwards on the ticket, leads Kerry, and has gained confidence on domestic issues and the economy.
The media will make sure that this and the Zogby (who is totally unreliable in good or bad news if you ask new) poll are the only polls that matter, and will try to tell people that Edwards actually helps Bush.
The truth is that it’s just too polarized for any VP candidate to make a real difference.
“Cheney can be president”
Probably the most unintentionally scary thing he could say! đ Let the american people take it as a warning! Yet another unsonsidered statement that will come back quickly to bite W in the ass.
Re: Edwards experience – just to reiterate what has already been stated upthread:
Edwards: 6 years as U.S. Senator
Bush: 6 years as Governor of Texas
Edwards: Successful ($50 million) career as a plaintiff’s attorney.
Bush: Business failed.
Kerry: married into money.
Edwards: made his own fortune.
Bush: born with money.
S Robinson —
Matthew Dowd’s “15% bounce” comment sounds like pure pre-emptive expectations-raising spin to me. Don’t buy it.
I would also add that the prevaling wisdom in 2000 was that who was President would not matter all that much. Times had been so easy with the peace and prosperity that people thought we could put it on autopilot and people could register disgust at Clinton’s affair.
The last four years have disabused us of that notion, and the consensus is that this is an election that matters, and I think a lot of minds have been cast, mostly on the basis of an up or down on Bush — Kerry just needs to not be objectionable.
storwino makes an important point – there is not a lot of room for big changes in this electorate.
Bush and Kerry each probably have 40% of likely voters who are very unlikely to switch in the runnup. Another 5% are pretty devoted to each, leaving about 10% of likely voters in play. So, big bounces are probably not too likely.
If everything plays out normally the undecideds should break Kerry, but if Kerry gives those undecideds a reason not to vote for him – Dukakis in the tank kind of thing, or debate screw ups, it could swing the other way.
I seem to remember though, that under pressure GWB tends to get frustrated and is probably more apt to screw up, whereas Kerry has a reputation of improving when it gets important.
Nice comment, TinMan. The difference is that not many Republicans were taking Hatch seriously as a presidential candidate, while the comment I mentioned came from your (presumptive) nominee. You would have done better to mention the elder Bush’s ‘voodoo economics’ line about Reagan’s tax cuts!
When you hear Republicans disparage Sen. John Edwards’s lack of experience, remember the words of Sen. Orrin Hatch, spoken to George W. Bush at a debate on Dec. 6, 1999.
“You’ve been a great governor,” Hatch declared of his rival for the Republican presidential nomination. “My only problem with you, governor, is that you’ve only had four and going into your fifth year of governorship. . . . Frankly, I really believe that you need more experience before you become president of the United States. That’s why I’m thinking of you as a vice presidential candidate.”
I guess it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Kerry-Edwards would get a quick bounce. Even Matthew Dowd, Bush’s chief strategist, estimates that Kerry may gain a 15-point bounce between naming his VP and the media attention from the convention. My surprise is all the excitement Edwards is generating among the Dems. Edwards has less experience than Dan Quayle. Didn’t Kerry make a comment about Edwards still being in diapers when Kerry came back from Vietnam? And Edwards’ populist message may sound great on the stump but rarely wins votes (ask Al Gore or Pat Buchanan).
As far as ‘earning’ their money, you know the GOP will spin this as one marrying into money (twice!) and the other making it from contingency fees.
The initial reaction was positive, but the long term traction depends on how the ticket is sold – and there appear to be a few great ways to build on the buzz.
1) Pound on the fact that both Kerry and Edwards have been a success in every job that they have ever had.
2) Repeat often that they both have excellent training – great grades, consistent focus on getting things done.
3) Reiterate that neither of them came from wealthy backgrounds – Kerry’s dad was in the State Dept, and one was a mill worker. One upper middle class, one lower middle class. But neither grew up wealthy. Instead they went and earned it.
Of course, these are not too subtle contrasts.
Here’s a press release from Zogby.
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews839.html
I tend to agree with Zogby’s take that there just isn’t room for a lot of movement in our electorate today.
I was interested to note at the very bottom they mention the “slight weights” they added to account for region, party, age, race, religion, gender and presidential voter. This sounds really suspect to me. Trying to be conservative, I guessed there would be:
4 categories for region,
3 categories for party,
4 categories for age,
4 categories for race,
2 categories for religion,
2 for gender, and
2 for presidential voter.
Based on that I arrived at 1536 unique categories. I would say that the margins of error in those sub-groups would be higher.
I’m guessing he applies some kind of clustering based on all those factors. Does anyone know anything about what he’s doing?
What are the chances that Bush will drop Cheney, as some Republican bloggers are fantasizing?
Found it– Google “Zogby Edwards July,” then click on the News link (Bloomberg reports the whole poll, which says no bounce– nothing about night one vs night two, though).
Where can we see that Zogby two-night poll?
> “Mr. Bush, is it true, as the New Republic reports,
> that you are playing election year politics with the
> security of the United States? Why was going after
> these high value targets not a concern for years,
> invading Iraq instead, but when you have fallen
> behind in the polls, has it become necessary to
> capture him before the election.
Josh Marshall made the same exact point the other day. Why is getting Osama suddenly such a high priority when it clearly wasn’t in the spring of 2003??
I agree it is probably better if Kerry raises the point in advance. His campaign might perhaps want to repeat this basic message in a number of attack ads, to thoroughly raise the point that the Bushies are “extremely concerned about terrorists” only when it suits their partisan goals at home… Osama was clearly a unwelcome distraction in early 2003, for example, when voters had to be reminded about the real and perceived dangers of Saddam at every opportunity.
MARCU$
Would you comment on the new Zogby 2-nite poll? He suggests a large bounce for Kerry/Edwards on the first night, followed by an even GREATER swing toward Bush on the second night?
Marcus,
Kerry shoudl do something with that article. Something along the lines of
“Mr. Bush, is it true, as the New Republic reports, that you are playing election year politics with the security of the United States? Why was going after these high value targets not a concern for years, invading Iraq instead, but when you have fallen behind in the polls, has it become necessary to capture him before the election.
“The American people will forgive a lot in their President, but they will not forgive a President putting his own election concerns above the security of the United States. These are serious charges and I urge you to repudiate them, and to get to the bottom of why they are being leveled. You might want to do the same with the Plame case. Furthermore I ask you to repudiate your failures in the area of American security, and to change courses to one of greater security for Americans above partisan electioneering. You might not win the election, Mr. President, but it will go along way toward regaing your honor and dignity.”
Perhaps a rewrite or two đ
I am really nervous about July 27, though. THE NEW REPUBLIC reports the Administration is working as hard as it can to pressure Pakistan to capture Bin Laden and/or other leading Al Qaeda operatives before Kerry/Edwards are officially nominated in Boston three weeks from now, or before the November elections at the very latest. And the Paki’s have some incentives to comply, since they reportedly are worried about Kerry/Edwards favoring India if they win the elections (Democratic presidents usually feel less inclined to do business with military dictators in Pakistan than do Republican ones).
MARCU$
Thanks for the breakdown. I have nothing to add to the conversation except that I am a bit surprised by my own gut feeling that it’s s a good choice. Pleasantly surprised.