One very central dynamic in the recent saga of Democratic anxiety over Joe Biden’s chances against Donald Trump, given the weaknesses he displayed in his first 2024 debate, has been the role of his understudy, Vice-President Kamala Harris. My colleague Gabriel Debenedetti explained the problem nearly two years ago as the “Kamala Harris conundrum”:
“Top party donors have privately worried to close Obama allies that they’re skeptical of Harris’s prospects as a presidential candidate, citing the implosion of her 2020 campaign and her struggles as VP. Jockeying from other potential competitors, like frenemy Gavin Newsom, suggests that few would defer to her if Biden retired. Yet Harris’s strength among the party’s most influential voters nonetheless puts her in clear pole position.”
The perception that Harris is too unpopular to pick up the party banner if Biden dropped it, but too well-positioned to be pushed aside without huge collateral damage, was a major part of the mindset of political observers when evaluating Democratic options after the debate. But now fresher evidence of Harris’s public standing shows she’s just as viable as many of the candidates floated in fantasy scenarios about an “open convention,” “mini-primary,” or smoke-filled room that would sweep away both parts of the Biden-Harris ticket.
For a good while now, Harris’s job-approval numbers have been converging with Biden’s after trailing them initially. These indicate dismal popularity among voters generally, but not in a way that makes her an unacceptable replacement candidate should she be pressed into service in an emergency. As of now, her job-approval ratio in the FiveThirtyEight averages is 37.1 percent approve to 51.2 percent disapprove. Biden’s is 37.4 percent approve to 56.8 percent disapprove. In the favorability ratios tracked by RealClearPolitics, Harris is at 38.3 favorable to 54.6 percent unfavorable, while Biden is at 39.4 percent favorable to 56.9 percent unfavorable. There’s just not a great deal of difference other than slightly lower disapproval/unfavorable numbers for the veep.
On the crucial measurement of viability as a general-election candidate against Trump, there wasn’t much credible polling prior to the post-debate crisis. An Emerson survey in February 2024 showed Harris trailing Trump by 3 percent (43 percent to 46 percent), which was a better showing than Gavin Newsom (down ten points, 36 percent to 46 percent) or Gretchen Whitmer (down 12 points, 33 percent to 45 percent).
After the debate, though, there was a sudden cascade of polling matching Democratic alternatives against Trump, and while Harris’s strength varied, she consistently did as well as or better than the fantasy alternatives. The first cookie on the plate was a one-day June 28 survey from Data for Progress, which showed virtually indistinguishable polling against Trump by Biden, Harris, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Gavin Newsom, J.B. Pritzker, Josh Shapiro, and Gretchen Whitmer. All of them trailed Trump by 2 to 3 percent among likely voters.
Then two national polls released on July 2 showed Harris doing better than other feasible Biden alternatives. Reuters/Ipsos (which showed Biden and Trump tied) had Harris within a point of Trump, while Newsom trailed by three points, Andy Beshear by four, Whitmer by five, and Pritzker by six points. Similarly, CNN showed Harris trailing Trump by just two points; Pete Buttigieg trailing by four points; and Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer trailing him by five points.
Emerson came back with a new poll on July 9 that wasn’t as sunny as some for Democrats generally (every tested name trailed Trump, with Biden down by three points). But again, Harris (down by six points) did better than Newsom (down eight points); Buttigieg and Whitmer (down ten points); and Shapiro (down 12 points).
There’s been some talk that Harris might help Democrats with base constituencies that are sour about Biden. There’s not much publicly available evidence testing that hypothesis, though the crosstabs in the latest CNN poll do show Harris doing modestly better than Biden among people of color, voters under the age of 35, and women.
The bottom line is that one element of the “Kamala Harris conundrum” needs to be reconsidered. There should be no real drop-off in support if Biden (against current expectations) steps aside in favor of his vice-president (the only really feasible “replacement” scenario at this point). She probably has a higher ceiling of support than Biden as well, but in any event, she would have a fresh opportunity to make a strong first or second impression on many Americans who otherwise know little about her.
My Former spouse told me “The State is supposed to pay for the boys support and needs- don’t bug me about it!”
As the mother of two, now grown sons, who had a former spouse become incarcerated immediately following our divorce, his then Temporary Child Support Order was put on hold, NOT ACCRUING interest or anything while he went to prison for 8 years. He had his medical, dental, 3 hots and a cot, recreation access sufficient to build things to sell to other inmates, their families and friends, and had to send NO MONEY to support his children. I was toughing it, working a clerical job, Medicaid, Foodstamps for the boys, yard sales and hand me downs mostly for their church and school clothes. I Pro Se attempted to get an order for Child Support for during those eight years, after I barely (he went for a minimum wage job so as not to pay what was appropriate- $10 job before he went in. Kept getting a crotchety, old goat of a judge, rudely barking, “Ya can’t get money out of someone in jail.” I wanted to see the statute, but nobody would tell me, so when his new bride (married after out 3 months) cried “Abuse”” he was violated on his Probation and messed my upkeep of our sons up, me stressed already, I had to drop out of my Paralegal course at Valencia (started when I was 40, realizing the boys weren’t going to get anything decent with me working clerically) and was hospitalized for Major Depression Recurrent.
No these guys/gals have not
PAID THEIR DEBT TO SOCIETY”, not as long as their children have not received their 8 years worth of support, loss of a positive male role model (which he wasn’t anyway!).
They should assess and Order Child Support in the beginning according to the rate of pay then, let it accrue while they are in, and upon release, give them a fraction of the Child Support Arrearage so as not to “frighten” them, debying freedom in order to avoid their responsibilities returning to jail. The after a year or so of the small percentage, they will mostlikely have accepted a raise, promotion, and they’ve becom aclimated to being FREE & OUTSIDE, their percentage can be increased, they’ll be more likely to pay it than return as before. Shoulf they get their DEBT TO THEIR CHILDREN/Society caught up, paid off, THEN THEY SHOULD RECEIVE SOME RIGHTS, BUT ONLY ON THE CONDITION THEY CONTINUE OR COMPLETE THEIR CHILD SUPPPORT PAYMENTS IN THEIR ENTIRETY. CHILDREN FIRST
Felon disenfranchisement and DREs are the major reasons why the Republican party maintains so many seats in congress. If ex-felons could have voted on hand counted paper ballots in the 2000 elections, Al Gore would be President and 3100+ dead American soldiers would now be alive. Paper Ballots are needed to break the current minority control of the United States.
The problem with restoring voter rights for ex-felons is that if Democrats advocate it, then we’re tagged with caring more about criminals than “decent, honest folks” (as the term goes). Because of that, I think Dems should focus only on an automatic restoration of voting rights once someone is completely free of the jucidial system, i.e., they are out of prison and not on parole or probation. The argument for this is much simpler and less politically controversial to make. Sadly, I think it’s the best we can do.
Hello, I have friend whose son served time and was paroled. She claims he is inelgible to vote. I say there must be a way. Does someone have some advice??
I do not understand why a person that has served his time and has been reintroduced to society must be held accountable for a crime paid for. While in jail I can see but once released to society ALL RIGHTS and PRIVLEDGES should be restored.
That will probably happen now since so many from the bush Crime Family are going to be going to jail and they need these thieves and Liars to operate.
Just and repukulan move to strip a Real American of participation in the government.