In thinking about the choices any new presidential administration faces, something occurred to me about Donald Trump that may be worth considering by Democrats trying to cope with him, so I wrote about it at New York:
Having never lacked faith in himself, Donald Trump probably feels completely entitled to his 2024 election win, the governing trifecta it created, and the relatively high levels of popularity (for him, anyway) that made it all possible. But the odds are very high that between the weighty national problems he inherits and the controversial nature of some of the things he wants to do, he’s probably at the summit of his popularity. As Ross Barkan recently argued at New York, there may be nowhere to go but down:
“Now are the days of wine and roses for MAGA because Joe Biden is still president and Trump’s reign remains hypothetical. On January 20, the script flips: The inflation and affordability crises are Trump’s problems. So is governing, which he has never excelled at. While Trump’s second term may promise, in theory, less chaos than his first, there isn’t much evidence that his White House will evince the grim, rapacious discipline of the Bush-Cheney years, when Republicans actually dominated all policymaking at home and abroad.”
Trump does, however, have some control over how much popularity he is willing to lose. Like anyone who becomes president with some political capital and the ready means to use it (i.e., controlling Congress as well as the White House, and having a lot of friends on the U.S. Supreme Court too), the 47th president will have to decide whether to take some risks on policies that are very likely to reduce his popularity or, instead, play to the galleries. To put it even more simply, he can cash in some chips on stuff he wants to do that could offend or even shock some of the people who voted for him or keep building his stash for the future. Given Trump’s almost unlimited control over his troops in Washington, he can probably go in either direction, but that choice of direction could have an enormous impact on those of us who would greatly prefer a less ambitious MAGA agenda.
There are a lot of reasons Trump may not care if he remains popular while fulfilling his presidential goals. This is the final presidential term of a 78-year-old man; for him, the future really is right now. Yes, forcing unpopular measures through Congress might endanger the fragile Republican control of the House in the 2026 midterms. But history indicates it’s very likely Democrats will flip the House no matter what Republicans do, and let’s face it: The long-range future of the Republican Party may not be of great interest to the president-elect. Even after being nominated as its presidential candidate three straight times while gradually grinding down intraparty opposition to a fine dust, Trump still acts suspiciously toward his party’s Establishment and clearly views it as a vehicle rather than a cause. This is more speculative, but given his personality profile the 47th president may even prefer, or at least not mind, a falloff in the GOP’s electoral performance once he’s gone.
Add in Trump’s impulsiveness, which doesn’t suggest someone for whom delay of gratification comes naturally, and it seems a “go big, then be gone” attitude is likely. Beyond that, it’s unclear how sensitive this man is to changes in popularity: He’s never been in an election he didn’t think he’d won, and he has a tendency to ignore the polls that give him news he doesn’t want in favor of the one or two that show support for his agenda and message always remaining sky-high. If he did something that made his popularity crash, would he even notice it, and if not, would any of the sycophants around him break the bad — and possibly fake — news?
All in all, the best bet is that Donald Trump will pursue his maximum agenda with little regard to how anyone feels about it so long as he’s getting it done. Perhaps Republican officeholders (e.g., his vice-president) who have plans beyond 2028 can talk him into more prudent conduct; but in case you haven’t noticed, he’s stubborn, and it will probably take a lot of blatant, in-your-face adversity to change his course. Democrats can supply some of that, of course, but a stronger than usual popular backlash could matter most.
Biden should immediately switch to and highlight the platform of providing quality middle class jobs and deceasing outsourcing. Middle class has been the solid voting block for Democrats, and unfortunately being neglected in the 2016 election, and pretty much until now. We fight for immigrants, LGBT and women’s rights whom by far and large are middle-class themselves! The platform has to, at least to a degree, to highlight the plight of middle classes, and provide solid policy on bringing jobs back to America. Otherwise, we lose the election like we did in 2016. “It’s the economy, xxx” – of the middle class!
Take away the Republican’s Trump card:
“It’s the economy stupid!” – and Trump has borrowed unprecedented amounts to get re-elected. Why have I not been asked if I think that it is reasonable for Trump to have borrowed about $30,000 dollars per taxpayer ($48k+ per family) to float the economy until he gets re-elected? Why has Dems just let him have his strongest argument uncontested?
Simply put, he is a real estate con man that has completely succeeded in his greatest con. It is child play to tie the “King of Debt” to the king size debt he has built up. Why have I, as well as all voters, not been asked who do we think he will stick with this unprecedented bill?
In 2016, Republican’s had complete control our federal government. Did they fund the wall? No. Did they pass an anti-abortion law? No. Did they shrink the size of government? No. Did they reduce the deficit? No.
If fact, what they did is pass a huge tax cut for the rich. So why not show how Trump has played middle America? He lies to them. Trump also has lied about who pays the China Tariffs. We pay, of course. Why am I not hearing about how we are now paying more in the tariff tax than we have received in the tax cut? Why have I not heard about how this is another of Trump’s cons.
The underlying Republican strategy is to lie and cheat, and their lies will be effective. We are in the calm before the storm, and once they are done with muddying the water, then they will make the argument that we have to vote for them for the economy. TAKE THE TRUMP CARD AWAY!