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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Teixeira: Will Latinos Turn Out in 2020?

The following article by Ruy Teixeira, author of The Optimistic Leftist and other works of political analysis, combines two articles cross-posted from his blog:

As the Pew piece cited below notes, Latinos’ weight in the eligible electorate, which will be the largest among minorities in 2020, could well be significantly less than that among actual voters due to their chronically low turnout.

But is that starting to change? Daily Kos Elections had an article today by Stephen Wolf covering a new report on 2018 voters in California districts that flipped Democratic. The somewhat remarkable story, illustrated by a table in the article, is that the Latino share of voters in 2018 in these districts about matched the share of voters in 2016. This is highly unusual given the usual dropoff you see among these voters if off-year elections–and that is clear by the comparison to 2014, also included in the article’s table. A good sign. Let’s hope they can keep the party going in 2020.

Pew has a nice short piece out about the topic that’s worth a look. Some nice charts, two of which are reproduced below, one on racial composition and the other on generational composition The big takeaways there are Hispanics becoming the largest group among eligible voters in 2020 and the sudden emergence of Gen Z as a significant group among eligibles.

In 2020, one-in-ten eligible voters will be members of Generation Z

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