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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Teixeira: House Districts in CA Breaking Blue

The following note by Ruy Teixeira, author of The Optimistic Leftist and other works of political analysis, is cross-posted from his Facebook page:

California Dreamin’

The LA times has released polls of likely voters in 8 California congressional districts. Josh Marshall highlights the good news for Team Blue:

“Look at this new set of polls from California. The gist is that Republicans are at risk of losing a bunch of suburban seats the party has held for decades. In other words, they’re looking at a possible total wipe out. Democrats universal loathe Devin Nunes. But he’s generally been seen — rightly — to be safe in this cycle. But look at the numbers. He’s at 53 percent versus 45 percent for Andrew Janz. That’s still a pretty solid position to be in. But that’s not safe anymore. Duncan Hunter, under indictment but in an extremely Republican district, is up by only 2 points over Campa-Najjar.

Here are the other numbers.

CA-10
Harder (D) 50%
Denham (R) 45%

CA-25
Hill (D) 50%
Knight (R) 46%

CA-39
Cisneros (D) 49%
Kim (R) 48%

CA-45
Porter (D) 52%
Walters (R) 45%

CA-48
Rouda (D) 48%
Rohrabacher (R) 48%

CA-49
Levin (D) 55%
Harkey (R) 41%

The gist is these are all really bad numbers for Republicans. It’s in the nature of wave elections that most or nearly all of the tight races break against the incumbent party. Republicans could quite plausibly face a total wipeout in California. But shift the climate a bit and some or all could hold on. Notably, these samplings were done from September 16th to 23rd. So before any possible tightening over the last week to ten days.”

It will be interesting to see what things look like if they do another set of these polls in a week or two. But these results are very good. Pickups in California alone could get the Democrats a fair way toward their House takeover goal.

An LA Times article by David Lauter goes into a lot more detail on these results and it’s worth looking at. Among other things, it gives some demographic breakdowns for each district. Here’s a fairly typical result from one of the districts, the 48th, where Democrat Harley Rouda has a very good chance of taking out the truly dreadful Dana Rohrabacher. Note the education split among whites and the strong Latino support for Rouda.

 

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