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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

2016 Election Predictions Updates

In no particular order of historic accuracy:

“First things first: Hillary Clinton has a 70 percent chance of winning the election, according to both the FiveThirtyEight polls-only and polls-plus models. That’s up from a 65 percent chance on Sunday night, so Clinton has had a good run in the polls in the final days of the campaign. Clinton’s projected margin of victory in the popular vote has increased to 3.5 percentfrom 2.9 percent.” — Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com.

President – Clinton 322 EVs, Trump 216 EVs; Senate – 50 Democrats, 50 Republicans; House – 201 Democrats, 234 Republcians (Net Dem pick-up of 13 seats; Governors – 18 Democratic, 31 Republicans (no net pick-ups for either party). — Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley, Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

Ed Kilgore: Clinton by 3 in popular vote, 307-231 in electoral votes.

“Our Senate forecasts — both polls-only and poll-plus — tipped toward Republicans late Monday, giving them about a 51 percent chance of maintaining their majority. While that technically makes the GOP a slight favorite, the fight for Senate control remains basically a coin flip. Still, our Senate forecasts have been inching in the GOP’s favor over the past several days, largely driven by a shift in the generic congressional ballot.” —Harry Enten at Five ThirtyEight.com.

Jonathan Chait: Clinton by five, 318 electoral votes.

“The presidential race may be inducing whiplash, but the House battleground remains relatively stable in the final week. We rate only 40 House races in Lean or Toss Up, and Democrats would need to sweep 35 of them to win control, so Republicans remain overwhelming favorites to hold onto their majority. But there is still plenty of uncertainty about the size of that majority: Democrats could gain anywhere from 5 to 20 seats.” — David Wasserman, Cook Political Report.

Eric LevitzI like Clinton by five nationally.

Most probable single outcome (shown on map below): Clinton 323 EV, Trump 215 EVMedian: Clinton 312 EV, Trump 215 EV. Meta-Margin: 2.7%…Mode (see histogram at right): Clinton 309 EV, Trump 229 EV…National popular vote: Clinton +4.0 ± 0.6%.” — Sam Wang, Princeton Election Consortium.

Hillary Clinton has an 84% chance to win.” —  Josh Katz at The Upshot

“While we are moving two states in Donald Trump’s direction on this second-to-last day of the campaign, the overall map still clearly favors Hillary Clinton: She has 275 electoral votes solidly or leaning her way — five more than she needs to win the White House on Tuesday night. In fact, even if Trump holds all of the states either solidly or leaning his way and wins all three states currently rated as “toss-ups,” he is still seven electoral votes short of 270.” — “Hillary Clinton has enough electoral votes to win the White House in final Fix map” by Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake at The Fix.

“The Democrats have 52% chance of winning the Senate” — Josh Katz at The Upshot

Charlie Cook: “There is a food fight un­der way among many of those do­ing pres­id­en­tial-elec­tion mod­el­ing… It’s not my style or ex­pert­ise to put a spe­cif­ic per­cent­age on Clin­ton’s chances of win­ning, but, suf­fice it to say, it’s a really big num­ber…The Sen­ate is tough­er to call. The strong like­li­hood of a Clin­ton vic­tory means that the Demo­crat­ic tar­get is 50 seats, a gain of four, with Vice Pres­id­ent Tim Kaine cast­ing a tiebreak­ing vote if ne­ces­sary. Right now, I think the odds are highest for a four-seat gain, next likely would be five seats.” — Taegan Goddard’s “Cook Sees a Clinton Win and Democratic Senate.”

“Trump will win Ohio and Iowa and outperform Romney in the course of losing Michigan and Pennsylvania. Elsewhere he’ll slightly underperform Romney en route to losing North Carolina, Florida and Nevada. The only major twist will be a Trump electoral vote from northern Maine. The popular vote will be Hillary 50, Trump 44. The Electoral College splitwill be 322-216. The Senate will be 50-50, with Tim Kaine as the decider.” — NYT columnist Russ Douthat

Next President Democratic – 89%, Republican 11 % — Prediction Markets at 3:12 a.m., Nov. 8.

“The HuffPost presidential forecast model gives Democrat Hillary Clinton a 98.2 percent chance of winning the presidency. Republican Donald Trump has essentially no path to an Electoral College victory…The Senate is likely to shift to a Democratic majority, with 51 seats, or 50 seats and Tim Kaine as the vice presidential tie-breaker. The HuffPost model says there’s a 66 percent chance Democrats will get 51 or more seats, and a 25 percent chance the chamber ends up with each party at 50 seats.” – “HuffPost Forecasts Hillary Clinton Will Win With 323 Electoral Votes:Democrats stand a strong chance of taking control of the Senate as well.” by Natalie Jackson

“It would be a mistake to call Trump’s current path to an electoral-college victory narrow. It is nonexistent.” — Stuart Rothenberg.

3 comments on “2016 Election Predictions Updates

  1. Thomas on

    This election has told us that opinions regarding the odds of who will win are barely opinions and should be ignored. We were fed a bill of goods about Clinton’s odds. I thought we had a good shot. Apparently not. Last time I’m listening to so called experts.


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