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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Political Strategy Notes

“If you see the poll averages and models settle into a steady Clinton lead of 2 points or less, or have the race tied or Trump ahead, then Clinton backers can break out their worry beads,” observes Charlie Cook in his post “The Race Tightens, But It’s Still Clinton’s to Lose” at the Cook Political Report. “Trump supporters can take heart at the recent tightening, but I don’t think we are anywhere near a tossup race yet.”

Simon Maloy nails Trump and the false equivalency lapdogs masquerading as journalists in his Salon.com post, “Trump’s successful tax dodge: Months of lying and stonewalling somehow aren’t a major scandal: Donald Trump Jr. confirmed that his dad’s tax info will remain hidden and that transparency hurts Trump politically

At Roll Call Jason Dick explains why “Democrats Believe Long Shots Can Deliver a House Majority.”

But Maddowblog’s Steve Benen reports “The New York Times’ Upshot…maintains a frequently updated forecasting model showing which party is favored to control the Senate in the next Congress. A month ago, by a roughly two-to-one margin, Democrats were favored to be in the majority. As of this morning, however, according to this model, there’s a 51% chance Republicans will be in charge…Daily Kos has its own projections, and it too shows the GOP favored to keep its Senate majority. The Huffington Post’s forecasting model tilts even more heavily in the Republicans’ favor.”

Meanwhile Susan Page, focusing on Chester County, PA, argues at USA Today that “A suburban tide against Trump could sink his election bid.” Seh quotes Ruy Teixeira: “In Donald Trump, you have a perfect storm of a candidate in terms of pressing buttons to sending white, college-educated voters, particularly women, in the other direction,” says Ruy Teixeira, co-director of “States of Change,” a nonpartisan project that studies the impact of demographic trends on elections. “These are not voters who are protectionist or anti-immigrant. He represents a type of Republicanism or strand of the Republican Party that they probably like the least.”

Here come the Koch Brothers big money to rescue Republicans down-ballot. “Of its roughly $250 million budget for the election, Freedom Partners said it would spend $42 million on TV and digital advertising, all told. The rest will now be focused on its ground game in addition to voter contact by phone and mail, and events.”

Apropos of my post on health care yesterday, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee reports on a new push for a “Senate resolution calling for every American to have the choice of a public health insurance option.” According to the announcement, “With Hillary Clinton actively campaigning on big ideas like a public option, debt-free college, and expanding Social Security benefits, Democrats will earn a mandate in 2016 to govern boldly and progressively in 2017. Bernie Sanders’ partnership with Senate leaders and grassroots groups on this push shows increasing Democratic unity around big progressive ideas…Hillary Clinton called for a public option on May 9 and reaffirmed this support in a big economic speech on August 11.”

Is Arizona A Swing State This Year?” Jude Joffe-Block reports on the latest developments at npr.org.

Reporting on the possibilities for women office holders in this year’s election, at The American Prospect  Peter Dreier offers some statistics to ponder: “Since the 1970s, the number of women in Congress and in other levels of government has steadily grown. Women now comprise 20 percent of the Senate, 19.3 percent of House members, 24.6 percent of state legislators, 12 percent (six) of the nation’s 50 governors, and 19 percent of the mayors of the nation’s 100 largest cities. Even so, American women still are still far less represented in government than their international peers…There are currently 20 women in the Senate—14 Democrats and six Republicans—according to the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University…Twelve women—including three incumbents—are currently running for ten Senate seats. (There are 34 Senate races this year)…If things break well for the Democrats, the next Senate could have 24 women—19 Democrats and five Republicans. This would be a record number of women in the Senate.”

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