washington, dc

The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Political Strategy Notes

Almost Every GOP Senator Just Voted to Keep Letting Terror Suspects Buy Guns: Once again, gun safety measures fail to move forward in Congress after a massacre,” reports Becca Andrews at Mother Jones.
“Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg says Republican candidates for the House and Senate would risk large defections from their base if they are seen as sabotaging Trump…Moreover, Greenberg sees a focus on Trump’s personal volatility as having helpful ricochet effects with other constituencies. To the extent that Trump is forced by the party to tone down his rhetoric – just watch his flat, Teleprompter-driven address from last Tuesday – he may start losing some of his magic with working-class voters…Greenberg argues that Clinton knows she has to offer a strong economic message with a populist feel to win over the millennial voters who flocked to Sanders. Appeals aimed their way will simultaneously help earn Sanders’ blessing and pick up the white working-class votes she’ll need.” — from E. J. Dionne, Jr.’s syndicated column.
Hillary Clinton Is On A Mission To Rebuild The Democratic Party: A 50-state strategy has been tried before. Her staff think they can do it right this time,” according to Sam Stein, writing at HuffPo.
Steve Benen reports at msnbc.com that “Clinton moves forward with a ’50-state strategy‘.”
At The Monkey Cage Gabriel Sanchez and Alan I. Abramowitz explain why “Hillary Clinton’s lead in the polls may be larger than it seems…” The authors noter, “Why were so many of the polls wrong? In part, because they failed to capture how minorities would vote. Unfortunately, some pollsters may be making the same mistakes in 2016 — and thereby underestimating Hillary Clinton’s lead in the polls…In 2012, many polls underestimated how many minorities would vote and how many would vote for Obama…In 2016, the country is even more diverse. Pollsters need to take steps to more accurately estimate the political attitudes and behavior of black, Latino and Asian American voters…If Clinton does as well with minority voters as Obama did, then her lead in the poll would be 10 points (see here).
At salon.com Sean Illing explains why “The Republicans’ November fantasy: A glance at the GOP’s swing state strategy ought to delight Democrats everywhere: The Republicans’ strategy for November is based on wishful thinking. Hillary could win this election in a rout.
Also at salon.com, read Gary Legum’s “Don’t rule it out: Thanks to Donald Trump, the Democrats have a slight chance of taking back the House: The Democrats need to win 30 seats to get control of the House — it’s unlikely but definitely not impossible.”
NYT’s Lynn Vavreck afforms that “Yes, Political Ads Are Still Important, Even for Donald Trump” and notes, “A study estimated that most of the impact of an ad in a presidential election is gone within a day or two of its airing (I am one of the authors of this paper). In governor, congressional and Senate elections, the effects last a bit longer: three or four days. Fleeting effects on campaigns have been shown by various authors in the lab; in Canada; in the 2000 and 2004 general elections; in the 2006 midterm elections; in the 2012 general election; and in field experiments in a Texas governor’s primary in 2006 and a general election in 2014.”
The title, as well as the content, of Joan McCarter’s Daily Kos article delineates one major difference between the two parties: “The consequences of an election in Louisiana: 200,000-plus people now have Medicaid.”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.