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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Political Strategy Notes

Sad but true, regarding the horrific mass murder in Orlando: “GOP Congressmen Offer “Thoughts and Prayers.” Here’s How Much the NRA Gave Them to Offer Nothing More” by Forrest Wickman at slate.com.
Julian Zelizer probes “What Orlando terror attack means for Clinton, Trump and 2016” at CNN Opinion and observes, “the turmoil and fear the attacks raises will spur more questions and concerns from some voters about whether Trump can be trusted with the awesome responsibility of handling a terror attack; whether he has the knowledge, the temperament, the wisdom and the demeanor to guide the nation through these kinds of events.”
Trump doubles down on call for a temporary ban on Muslim migration to the U.S., tries to portray Clinton as advocate for for increasing the number of Muslims admitted to the U.S.
Washington Post syndicated columnist E. J. Dionne, Jr. explains why “The strategic playing field is tilting toward Clinton“: “Hillary Clinton faces a strategic choice…she needs a decent share of the blue-collar vote to hold key Midwestern states — and she will have to rally what have been core Democratic constituencies: younger voters, who eluded her during the primaries, African Americans and Latinos. But the direction of her campaign and her selection of a running mate will depend in significant part on the class tilt of her strategy…Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg says Republican candidates for the House and Senate would risk large defections from their base if they are seen as sabotaging Trump…Greenberg argues that Clinton knows she has to offer a strong economic message with a populist feel to win over the millennial voters who flocked to Sanders. Appeals aimed their way will simultaneously help earn Sanders’s blessing and pick up the white working-class votes she’ll need.”
“Trump can’t even take the Romney map for granted,” said Pennsylvania GOP strategist Ray Zaborney, quoted in “Road to 270: Electoral map already looks tough for Trump” by AP’s Thomas Beaumont and Julie Pace.
At The Fix, Philip Bump reports that “Donald Trump’s polling surge has faltered — and Democrats haven’t even united.”
Lots of hype in headlines about Sen. Sanders not yet conceding or endorsing Clinton, even in some of the better newspapers. But when you read the stories below the headlines, what makes more sense is that Sanders is just waiting for the optimum moment to endorse Clinton, when his supporters will be ready for it and when it can do the most good.
At the Crystal Ball Kyle Kondik offers a salient back-of-the-envelope calculation about what constitutes a wave election which can propel Dems to a House majority: “Remember: Democrats narrowly won the national House vote in 2012 but only won 201 seats. In 2006 and 2008 — years where Democrats won House majorities — they led the generic ballot polling by about 10 points right before the election…That’s probably where the generic ballot polls will have to be in the fall to suggest that Democrats have a real shot at flipping the House.”
Should that happen, one of the more obnoxious wingnuts and Trump endorsers may be one of the celebrated political casualties of the blue wave, according to Eric Garcia’s Roll Call post, “Darrell Issa Gets Viable Challenger: Retired Marine colonel’s strong showing in jungle primary surprises experts.”

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