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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Political Strategy Notes

At The Fix, Janell Ross explains “What Hillary Clinton’s massive win among black voters [in SC] really says“: “There is evidence of substantial but far from record-setting overall primary turnout there, too. But, there is also this: Black voters turned out and voted in large numbers relative to other Democrats, giving their numerical majority within the party added meaning…Black voters in South Carolina cast 6 in every 10 Democratic primary votes, according to CNN’s exit poll data. That ratio is huge — and sets a record-high in South Carolina black voter participation rate. The previous high was 55 percent, set in 2008…It is a result that should begin to crush the popular and often repeated myth that black political behavior in 2008 and 2012 was nothing more than a blip, a fleeting kind of emotion-only engagement inspired by a singular and history-making black candidate.”
The Associated Press adds: “Six in 10 South Carolina primary voters were women, and 8 in 10 of them said they voted for Clinton. She was also supported by about 7 in 10 men…Six in 10 white women supported Clinton, while a majority of white men said they voted for Sanders…Clinton ate into Sanders’ advantage among young voters. Although he was supported by a slim majority of primary voters under 30, she was supported by about three-quarters of those between the ages of 30 and 44, as well as 8 in 10 of those 45 and older…Two-thirds of white voters under 45 supported Sanders, but among blacks, that group went overwhelmingly for Clinton.”
More demographic breakdowns of the SC Democratic primary vote exit polls right here.
Looking forward, Politico’s senior politics editor Charlie Mahtesian has useful guide to Super Tuesday, “Breaking down Democrats’ Super Tuesday map:What to watch for in the biggest day of the Democratic presidential race so far.
The Upshot’s Nate Cohn adds, “The results in South Carolina — as well as in Nevada, where Mrs. Clinton also won black voters by a wide margin — suggest that she can count on big wins in six Super Tuesday states where black voters represent an above-average share of Democratic voters: Alabama, Texas, Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas and Georgia. The polls say the same thing…As a result, the Sanders campaign has effectively conceded the South on Super Tuesday. The campaign is not airing advertisements there, according to NBC News data.”
From RMuse’s PoliticusUSA post, “Two Respected Liberal Journalists Issue An Important Warning To Democrats“: “Maddow and Capehart both note that regardless the incompetent and hate-mongering Republicans seeking their party’s nomination, “the Republican field is consistently making more people turn out to vote. Republicans have voted in four states so far this year and in every single one they have broken the voter turnout record for that state.” Maddow then pointed out, again, that voter turnout for Democrats is down substantially. In fact, it was down 28 percent in Iowa, it was down 13 percent in New Hampshire, and it was down 33 percent in Nevada…It is noteworthy that 41 percent of one Democratic faction would not support the “other Democrat” if their candidate is not the nominee..”
E. J. Dionne’s syndicated column, “Working-class slump stokes Trump” illuminates a major reason for the GOP front-runner’s success with one of the largest demographic groups: “…Trump embraces positions on economics and foreign policy anathema to most conservative politicians. He is an ardent critic of recent free-trade agreements, opposes cuts to Social Security and Medicare, has been even more vocal than many Democrats in criticizing President George W. Bush and the Iraq War and even endorses the Democrats’ long-standing call for government negotiations with pharmaceutical companies to drive down drug costs…This mix has allowed Trump to win votes from self-described moderates and conservatives alike, but his strongest support comes from voters at the lower end of the socioeconomic scale.”

Bridget Bowman reports at Roll Call that petitions bearing 1.3 million signatures urging Republicans to “do your job” and honor “the Senate’s Constitutional duty to consider a Supreme Court justice” have been delivered. Further, adds Bowman, “The Democratic National Committee launched a social media effort with the hashtag #DoYourJob, and hosted daily press calls with lawmakers about how a prolonged vacancy on the court would affect gay rights, immigration, abortion rights, voting rights, and health care.”

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