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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Political Strategy Notes

In “Gloomy Republican Campaigns Leave behind Reagan Cheer,” Jeremy W. Peters describes increasingly pessimistic assessments of the political moment by GOP presidential candidates, then adds: “Despite the country’s challenges, there are signs of improvement: Job growth is up, unemployment is down, and the economy is in vastly better shape than it was eight years ago.” Barring a sudden economic downturn, this is going to be a tough sell for Republicans a year from now.
Despite the incessant coverage of everything Trump, The Upshot’s Nate Cohn explains “Why He’s Still Such a Long Shot.”The party has huge incentives to unify against Trump. He is unacceptable to nearly every Republican wing. A unified party could spend millions — even hundreds of millions — attacking Mr. Trump, criticizing him in the media and fueling his eventual opponent…If it came down to it, G.O.P. campaigns and aligned super PACs could easily spend more than $100 million in California, New York, New Jersey and other big, blue and often winner-take-all states in April, May and June of 2016 to knock Mr. Trump out.”
At The American Prospect, however, Adel M. Stan’s “A Nation of Sociopaths? What the Trump Phenomenon Says About America” merits serious thought. Many factors feed Trump’s popularity, all of them worrisome. Stan’s concern about rising sociopathy is only enhanced by the poll referenced at the end of today’s Strategy Notes.
Whatever divisions still fester within the Democratic Party regarding the Iran arms agreement, Democratic senate candidates in the battleground states are of one accord in support of the deal, reports Alex Roarty in the National Journal.
in “A rising force, moderate Democrats put their stamp on California legislative session Sacramento Bee reporters Christopher Cadelago, Jeremy White and Alexei Koseff take an interesting look at Democratic party politics in the most influential megastate.
NYT columnist Charles M. Blow provides some perceptive observations in “Bernie Sanders and the Black Vote,” as the candidate struggles to improve his polling percentages with a key pro-Democratic constituency.
At CNN Politics Eugene Scott addresses an interesting question: “Can Democrats sway young evangelicals?,” noting, “In the past three presidential elections, Democrats have garnered no more than 24% of the white evangelical vote, according to exit polls conducted by Edison Research for CNN.”
At Roll Call Emily Cahn and Eli Yokley report that Democrats have potential map-expander U.S. Senate candidates in three states: Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick in AZ,. Secretary of State Jason Kander in MO and Connor Eldridge in AR. But there is some concern about NH and NC, which should be in play if Dems can secure reasonably strong candidates.
Caveats about internet polling notwithstanding, this is disturbing.

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