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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Exit Poll Stats in GA, NC Shed Light on GOP Near-Sweep

Poll analysts are still chewing on data from the election, particularly CNN’s exit polls. Here’s some statistical nuggets from the results in NC and GA which offer some clues:
In GA, where David Perdue beat Michelle Nunn by 8 points, 31 percent of the electorate earned over $100,000. Nunn received 51 percent from those earning less than $100K (Perdue 47 percent), while Perdue won 62 percent of those earning over $100K (Nunn 35 percent). Nunn did better among those earning less than $50K (who were 34 percent of the electorate), 56-42 percent. But among the 66 percent of the electorate who earned more than $50K, Perdue lead 57-41 percent. Of those earning $50-100K, Perdue won their votes by 52-46. percent.
Also in GA, Nunn received only 19 percent of the vote from white males, who were 34 percent of the electorate. She got 27 percent of the vote from white females, who were 30 percent of the GA electorate. African Americans were 29 percent of the GA electorate, Latinos 4 percent (African Americans were 30.5 percent of GA’s population in 2010 Census). Nunn won 92 percent of the African American vote.
In NC, where Republican Thom Tillis edged out Kay Hagan by 2 percent, 24 percent of the electorate earned more than $100K. Hagan won the 76 percent who earned who earned less than $100K by 51-44, but Tillis won the over $100Ks by 59-39.
Tillis won 69 percent of the white male vote (36 percent of the NC electorate) and 56 percent of white women, who were 38 percent of yesterdays NC voters. African Americans were 21 percent of the NC turnout (21.5 percent of NC’s population in 2010), while Latinos were 3 percent. Hagan received 96 percent of NC’s African American vote.
Two of the most obvious conclusions that leap out from this data are: (1.) The Republicans did an excellent job of turning out their constituencies in both states, and (2.) Georgia is a long way from becoming a purple state. More later…

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