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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Political Strategy Notes

Josh Kraushaar has a clue for Dems, particularly Michelle Nunn in GA in his National Journal post, “The Democrats’ Most Effective Midterm Message: Outsourcing: Taking a page from Obama’s 2012 playbook, Democrats have found a winning message in a dismal political environment.” But it’s not only Georgia; Kraushaar notes that the issue has traction in IL, MN, CT, MA, or pretty much any electorate with substantial numbers of “blue- and gray-collar voters that aren’t that enthused about shiny young capitalists.”
Luke Brinker presents compelling evidence at Salon.com for “How the minimum wage could tip key midterm races.”
At NBC News.com Mark Murray writes of the GOP lead in a new national bipartisan NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll: “Their edge over Democrats (two points among likely voters) is narrower than it was at this same point in 2010 (seven points), suggesting the GOP won’t see the wave-like gains it made in the last midterm cycle.” Republican Bill Mc Iturff notes, “When you are sitting on top of an unstable electorate, there is a joker in the deck.” Murray notes further, “And in perhaps the best news of all for Democrats…they’re leading Republicans in congressional preference among registered voters in the top-11 Senate races, 47 percent to 42 percent. That’s a reversal from a month ago, when Republicans held a 10-point lead in the top Senate races.”
Crystal Ball’s Sean Trende observes, “To predict Democrats retaining Senate control, you basically have to bet on (a) Democrats sweeping South Dakota, Iowa, Colorado, and North Carolina; (b) picking off enough Republican seats in very red states like Kentucky, Kansas, or Georgia to offset any losses in (a) or; (c) systemic polling failure. You can make a plausible case for each of those scenarios, with (b) probably being the most likely. Regardless, given the current state of polling and knowing how races have behaved over the past few cycles, those really do appear to be the options left for Democrats.”
At Post Politics Sean Sullivan explains “Why Georgia looks more promising than Kentucky for Senate Democrats.”
Talking Points Memo’s Dylan Scott explores “The Strategy Dems Are Betting Will Save Mark Udall — And The Senate“:…Focus on two core Democratic constituencies — women and Hispanics — and an unprecedented, data-driven get-out-the-vote effort…The methods have evolved — better software this time, an all mail-in ballot election — but the foundation remains the same, Paul Dunn, DSCC’s national field director, told TPM in a phone interview.” Scott notes that Udall’s campaign supposes “Bennet’s operation in key categories: 25 field offices in 2014, versus 15 in 2010; 100 field organizers versus 40; and 3,200 volunteers in the last month versus less than 1,000.”
Marquette law School poll has stat tie in Governor’s race, with Republican Scott Walker trending down.
At Time Politics Jay Newton-Small notes an encouraging trend, “Midterm Elections See Surge in Tough-to-Lure Candidates: Young Moms.” Newton-Small notes, “On average, women enter politics four years later–at the age of 51 versus 47–than men, according for Rutgers University’s Center for American Women in Politics. But not so this cycle: A remarkable number of young mothers are running for Congress.”
Timothy Cama reports at The Hill that “Six organizations are teaming up to visit college campuses and encourage young people to vote in the name of environmental protection….The groups, led by the Environmental Defense Fund’s (EDF) Defend Our Future campaign, are backing a Campus Consciousness Tour in eight college towns.”

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