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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Political Strategy Notes

Despite all of the buzz about Democratic success in fund-raising outpacing Republicans, Elaine Kamarck reports at Brookings that conservative organization independent expenditures on Congressional primaries and the general election in 2014 is more than double that of liberal organizations.
According to a new NYTimes/CBS News/YouGov poll of more than 100K respondents conducted 9/20-10/1 reported by Nate Cohn at The Upshot, Democrats are 4 points ahead in 46 U.S. Senate races, but have only “a nominal edge” in NC, CO and IA. “If the Democrats sweep all three — an outcome by no means assured with such tenuous leads — Senate control could be decided by Kansas, where the Republican senator Pat Roberts is tied with the independent candidate Greg Orman. If Mr. Orman won and caucused with the Democrats, then they would hold the Senate.” If Dems can’t win KS or AK, explains Cohn, they will have to win one of four southern states, KY, AR, LA or GA, where “Republican David Perdue saw his lead fall to four percentage points against Michelle Nunn….Whether the Democratic turnout machine can turn its advantage in voter contacts into additional votes on Election Day might well determine Senate control.”
In GA, reports Bloomberg View’s Albert R. Hunt, “This race is surprisingly close because of the state’s changing demographics. As recently as 2004, whites, who vote overwhelmingly Republican, accounted for 71 percent of the electorate. In 2012, they made up a little more than 61 percent. The black vote, almost all Democratic, grew to 30 percent from less than 25 percent, and the small Hispanic vote is increasing. The Atlas Project, a Democratic organization that studies voting patterns, projects that this trend will continue.” Hunt calculates that Nunn needs 30 percent of the white vote, and for African Americans to be 30 percent of the electorate in GA.
Nunn’s opponent David Perdue is in some pretty scalding hot water, explain John Bresnahan and Manu Raju at Politico: “David Perdue has run aggressively as a “job creator,” touting his record as a top executive with Fortune 500 companies as the chief selling point in his Georgia Senate campaign…Yet during a…nine-month stint in 2002-03 as CEO of failed North Carolina textile manufacturer Pillowtex Corp…– Perdue said he was hired, at least in part, to cut costs by outsourcing manufacturing operations overseas. Perdue specialized throughout his career in finding low-cost manufacturing facilities and labor, usually in Asia…During a July 2005 deposition, a transcript of which was provided to POLITICO, Perdue spoke at length about his role in Pillowtex’s collapse, which led to the loss of more than 7,600 jobs. Perdue was asked about his “experience with outsourcing”…”Yeah, I spent most of my career doing that,” Perdue said, according to the 186-page transcript of his sworn testimony.”
Nunn’s ad on the revelations:

A new NBC/Marist poll of LVs has “Kansas GOP Sen. Pat Roberts down double digits, North Carolina Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan with a 4-point lead and a neck-and-neck race in Iowa,” reports James Hohmann at Politico. Hagan “has now led in the past 10 public polls.”
Washington Post columnist E. J. Dionne, Jr. explains “Why Democrats aren’t getting credit for the economy.” Dionne cites as key factors the “different worries” that come with better times and wage stagnation.
In addition to low wages, long-term unemployment and involuntary part-time employment are still too high, add Yulan Q. Mui and Katie Zezima, also at The Post.
2014 as best year for private sector job growth since 1999 is not a bad meme, however. Or if you want to up the ante, how about “Best Year for Job Creation This Century

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