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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Political Strategy Notes

Charles Pierce offers some perceptive insights about the President’s address last night, including that it was: “…a speech that was neither as bellicose as some people wanted, nor as isolationist as other people wanted. (Rand Paul, of course, feels strongly both ways.)…The president also asked the Congress, and the political elite of this country, to take ownership of all that loose talk that has come out of our government since that day 13 years ago, the incoherent babble of our national derangement…There are substantial political constituencies, both here and abroad, for the national derangement that began in 2001 to continue. And I think that last night’s speech was, in part, a attempt to challenge those constituencies to come out of the shadows and show themselves.”
From Greg Sargent’s Plum Line post “For Republicans, the midterm elections are all about Obama“: “The poll finds that 54 percent of voters — including 64 percent of independents and 63 percent of moderates — say Obama is “not a factor” in their vote…But 62 percent of Republicans — and 67 percent of conservative Republicans — say a reason for their vote is to “express opposition to Obama.” Perhaps Dems need an ad campaign along the lines of ‘Obama ain’t running, but Boehner and his obstructionist minions are on the ballot. End Gridlock, vote Democratic.”
In his wrap-up of the midterm primary season, Geoffrey Skelley notes at Sabato’s Crystal Ball that “On the House side, the percentage of incumbents that won less than 60% in their primaries was up from the last two midterm cycles. At the same time, the percentage of incumbents facing major-party opposition in November will be lower in 2014 than in 2010 or 2006…Although no incumbent lost in the Senate this cycle, 2014 continued the trend of increased competition in primaries seen in 2010. While 2010 saw more senators face actual opposition, both cycles saw six members win less than 60%…”
At The New Yorker Sam Wang rolls out the case that “Democrats Now Have a Seventy-Per-Cent Chance of Retaining Control of the Senate.”
Chris Cillizza posts at The Fix, however, that heavyweight pundits Charlie Cook and Stuart Rothenberg believe the Republicans have a significant edge — Rothenberg smells “a sizable Republican senate wave.” Cillizza doesn’t even mention Wang’s take.
Sometimes they just come right out and say it.
GA Governor’s race now in stat tie, according to SurveyUSA/11-Alive poll of registered LV’s. Democrat Michelle Nunn down 3 in Senate Race, with 14 point drop in support from women.
Re the proposed constitutional amendment to restore congressional authority to limit outside campaign spending that is up for a vote: A New York Times editorial supporting the measure notes that “outside spending on this year’s midterm elections ($189 million so far) is more than three times what it was at this point in 2010.”
File this idea under “not gonna happen,” since there is no strategic upside.

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