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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Political Strategy Notes

Make Sasha Issenberg’s TNR article “How the Democrats Can Avoid Going Down This November: The new science of Democratic survival” your political strategy must-read of the day. Here’s a couple of reasons why: “For a party populated with Unreliable voters, the midterm imperative is clear: Raise the dollars and secure the volunteer commitments. Then go and turn out those who are already on your side but won’t show up without a friendly nudge…Democrats should not be too worried about the inbound negative ads: There will be millions of Unreliables in Senate battlegrounds this fall who would never vote for a Republican. And once mobilized, a reluctant voter’s ballot counts the same as any other’s. But the enthusiasm and interest of the activists and donors upon whom that mobilization depends can certainly waver.”
See also TNR’s companion post to Issenberg’s article “The Democrats’ Best Senate Hopes: An Unorthodox Ranking,” which pegs the “Democratic Vote DeficIts” for WV, AK, MT, NH, IA, LA, AR, KY, MI, CO, NC AND GA to specific numbers provided by TargetSmart and Clarity Campaign Labs, in rank order “from easiest to most difficult.”
Quin La Capra reports at The Hill that “Eleven states/jurisdictions have enacted the National Popular Vote (NPV) bill, giving the proposal 165 electoral votes — 61 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to trigger the new voting system.”
Sam Stein’s HuffPo post “Obamacare’s Poll Numbers Improve In Republican Districts” notes “Attitudes toward the Affordable Care Act continue to shift in the law’s favor, even in Republican-held congressional districts, a new poll set to be released Monday by a Democratic firm will show…The poll, which was conducted by Democracy Corps in battleground congressional districts and shared in advance with The Huffington Post, shows 52 percent of respondents want to “implement and fix” the 2010 health care reform law versus 42 percent who want to “repeal and replace” it. Those numbers were 49 percent to 45 percent, respectively, in the firm’s December poll…The favorable trend toward Obamacare has been witnessed not just in Democratic districts but also in Republican districts.”
…And the Florida Republicans couldn’t tank Obamacare, despite pulling out all stops:

But Ronald Brownstein warns at The National Journal that the President’s approval ratings are still too low, according to a new Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor Poll. Yet, “The one solace for Democrats in the new poll is that Congress is even more unpopular than the president. Just 11 percent of those surveyed said they approved of Congress’s performance, while 80 percent disapproved. In the five times the Heartland Monitor has tested Congress’ rating since November 2012, only last November did it score more poorly, with just 9 percent approving and 84 percent disapproving.”
AP’s Alan Fram reports that the upcoming vote on the minimum wage could be a turning point for Dems, with women and young voters in particular, but also with the electorate as a whole: “It’s a powerful values issue for middle-class voters,” Democratic pollster Geoffrey Garin said of the minimum wage push. “And it’s a powerful motivator for voters in the Democratic base who are a focal point of Democratic efforts to turn out voters in the midterm elections.”
He’s singing a diffetrent tune nowadays, but right here you can watch Rand Paul trashing Ronald Reagan.
At least some conservatives are more than a little nervous about adopting Cliven Bundy as their new poster-boy. As Alyssa Rosenberg notes, “On Fox News, my colleague Charles Krauthammer goes further, making the point that romanticizing a rejection of federal authority often ends in embarrassment. “This is a man who said that he doesn’t recognize the authority of the United States of America. That makes him a patriot?” Krauthammer asked. Anti-government language has been a powerful rhetorical tool, but it is difficult to sever those sentiments from the neo-Confederate sentiments that trail stubbornly behind it. Maybe it is time to try to elevate a different path to conservative stardom.” Ya think?

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