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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Political Strategy Notes

At The Daily Beast Michael Tomasky notes “You’ve seen the poll results showing at least five senators who voted against the Manchin-Toomey bill losing significant support. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire is the only one of the five from a blue state, so it’s probably not surprising that she lost the most, 15 points. But Lisa Murkowski in Alaska lost about as much in net terms. Alaska’s other senator, Democrat Mark Begich, lost about half that. Republicans Rob Portman of Ohio and Jeff Flake of Arizona also tumbled.” As for the next vote on background checks, Tomasky sees “eight potential switches, where six are needed” if it comes up again in the not to distant future.
Further, “…59 percent of Americans are dissatisfied with the results of the Senate gun votes: 19 percent said they were angry about the votes, and 40 percent said they were disappointed by the results,” according to a new poll from CBS News and the New York Times, conducted April 24-29.
Jobless claims are down, although killjoy economists attribute it to ‘Spring swoon” pattern of recent years. The trade deficit is narrowing impressively as well. And the Monitor “What’s behind best April for Detroit’s Big 3 since 2007?” is also encouraging.
At Wonkblog, Brad Plumer’s “Is U.S. manufacturing making a comeback — or is it just hype?” provides a more informative and cautiously optimistic look at the economic recovery in the U.S.
Democracy is running a forum on “Winning the Voting Wars” featuring a number of articles of interest, including: “Playing Offense: An Aggressive Voting Rights Agenda” by Michael Waldman; “Make It Easy: The Case for Automatic Registration” by Heather K. Gerken; “The Missing Right: A Constitutional Right to Vote” by Jonathan Soros & Mark Schmitt; “Expanding Citizenship: Immigrants and the Vote” by Tova Andrea Wang; and “A Temporary Victory: Looking Ahead to 2014” and Beyond by Jeff Hauser.
Anthony Salvato of CBS News asks “Do the Democrats have a lock on the Hispanic vote?,” and notes: “Hispanic households earning under $50,000 were the most pro-Obama at 82 percent, but Obama support drops as income rises, to 64 percent for Hispanic voters in households of $50,000 to $100,000 and households earning more than $100,000 split almost evenly 51 percent Obama to 48 percent Romney.”
At Politics365, Dr. Jason Johnson has an update on Republican efforts to suppress the college vote in Ohio.
However, there are indications that voter suppression has a downside for its perpetrators, arguably costing the GOP more votes than it gains from suppression, at least in certain localities. The Nation’s John Nichols explains “How Voter Backlash Against Voter Suppression Is Changing Our Politics.”
In his Wall St. Journal column, “The GOP Sets Its Sights on the Senate in 2014,” Karl Rove says the Republicans have only “an outside chance of a Senate majority,” and adds: “Last year, Democratic Senate candidates outraised Republicans by $60 million (not including the Connecticut and Pennsylvania races with GOP self-funders). The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee outraised its GOP counterpart by an additional $20 million. Republicans won’t make big pickups if there’s a disparity like this in 2014.”
It’s never over until the last ballot is counted, but do not bet the ranch on this happening.

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