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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Political Strategy Notes

Nate Silver forecasts that President Obama is on track to win 307 electoral votes in light of the latest polling data, cites 13 latest major polls, none of which show Romney ahead in the nation-wide popular vote. Only one shows a 1 point gain for Romney (Battleground Politico) to a tie in the popular vote nationwide (two others show a tie, Rasmussen and CNN).
At HuffPo Pollster Mark Blumenthal writes: “In all, HuffPost Pollster has entered over 120 new statewide polls into our database over the past week, most in the closely contested battlegrounds. This new data has done little to alter the overall polling snapshot, which continues to favor Obama in contested states like Wisconsin, Nevada, Iowa and Ohio by margins of 2 to 4 percentage points. The electoral votes from these four states, combined with those from other states where Obama leads Romney by wider margins, would give the President 277 electoral votes, just over the 270 need to win.”
MSNBC’s Chris Hayes has an illuminating interview with Slate.com’s Sasha Issenberg on the Obama campaign’s edge in the front porch campaign and high tech GOTV.
Silver explains “Romney’s Reason to Play for Pennsylvania.” Silver says “Given the number of unappealing options for Mr. Romney, however, it may be worth a try. Pennsylvania still ranks seventh on the FiveThirtyEight list of tipping-point states — and that is without considering the mechanics of early voting. Pennsylvania has little early voting, meaning that a larger share of the vote there is still in play.” But Democratic strategist Bob Shrum says Pennsylvania is always fool`s gold for the Republicans.”
National Journal’s Hotline on Call’s staff update sees it this way: “Depending who you ask, Romney’s decision to visit to Pennsylvania within 48 hours of Election Day speaks to one of two beliefs: That the state is seriously in play and must be contested, or that Ohio has slipped away and a last-minute map expansion is necessary to keep Romney’s electoral hopes alive. It may be a little of both…But the location of Romney’s rally is notable: In targeting the vote-rich suburbs of Philadelphia in eastern Pennsylvania — rather than the blue collar areas around Pittsburgh on the state’s west side…”
At Alternet, Lynn Stuart Parramore’s “Don’t Believe the Hype: The Gender Gap Still Favors Obama, Big-time” is a good rebuttal to Romney campaign spin about their momentum with women voters. Parramore cites recent polls showing Obama with a 17 percent edge with Virginia women and a 12 percent gender gap in Ohio.
Sahil Kapur reports at Talking Points Memo on the emerging Republican whine, “It’s Sandy’s fault.”
Politicians should note that the highest-turnout constituency, seniors, has definitely gone digital. According to a survey by the Pew Internet Project, in 2012 — for the first time — more than half of all those age 65 or older are online, and over a third are active in social networking. More than two-thirds of them now have cell phones, including 13 percent with smartphones.
Jamelle Bouie explains at The American Prospect why you shouldn’t worry so much about “the undecideds.”
In her Huffpo post “Don’t Be Fooled by a Moderate Mitt ,” Jane White has the relevant statistics which show which party is the sworn enemy of bipartisanship: “And when it comes to gridlock on Capitol Hill, the finger of blame points squarely at the GOP. While one of Romney’s ads blames Obama for not reaching out to work with congressional Republicans, it’s the Republicans Congress that has racked up the highest number of filibusters in American history. During Obama’s first term there were 246 cloture motions filed to end Republican filibusters compared to 133 during Dubya’s first term. Not even a handful of “sensible” Republicans had the guts to break ranks and vote with the Democrats.”
How much longer will Florida voters put up with Governor Scott’s disgusting restrictions on early voting? Here’s an update on the outrage in Florida, and the lawsuit to stop it.
At the Princeton Election Consortium, Sam Wang has a nifty “Election Night Scenario tracking Tool.”
Washington Post Outlook is running a Crystal Ball contest predicting the electoral vote outcome, with an eclectic group of 13 pundits. Some of the more interesting predictions: Chris Cillizza – Obama 277 EVs; Mad Money’s Jim Kramer – Obama 440 EVs; National Journal’s Hotline Editor Reid Wilson – Obama 294 EVs. A meteorologist, poker player and a Mclean, VA high school also weigh in. 11 of 13 pick Obama to win the electoral college vote.

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