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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Election Countdown: Day 1

So the Big Day has finally arrived, and everyone not involved heavily in GOTV efforts is getting nervous and/or excited. FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver has Obama’s probability of re-election at 86.3%; Princeton Election Consortium’s Sam Wang has it at 98.4% HuffPost’s final polling average gives Obama a 1.2% popular vote lead. RCP has Obama leading by 0.7%. Obama has been up in every poll of Ohio taken in the last two weeks, other than those conducted by Rasmussen, which has the race tied. The standard Republican spin has moved from “Romney landslide!” to “Too close to call!”
With this background, here’s some items from today’s blogging at Washington Monthly that may be of special interest to TDS readers:
* Romney’s late effort in Pennsylvania isn’t a “feint” or a sign of an “expanding map,” but simply a desperate tactic of a campaign blocked from other routes to 270. Sorta like Lee’s invasion of the Keystone State in 1863.
* GOP prospects of taking over Senate now lower than chances of Democratic gains, which could go as high as four or five seats.
* Obama on track to beat 2008 margin among Latinos, and enthusiasm is high; GOP gamble on wedge politics backfiring.
* State legislative elections offer targets for both parties, but drive for supermajorities (especially in California) could be biggest story.
Get some rest tonight!

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