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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Political Strategy Notes

Since convention ‘bumps’ tend to evaporate, there may not be any measurable impact of the GOP and Dem conventions on election day. In terms of lasting, but immeasurable impressions, few would argue that the GOP convention could help Republicans much. If there is any edge, it would probably go to the Democrats. In his Wapo column, “The tale of two conventions favors Obama,” Eugene Robinson puts it this way “…Frankly, in terms of speechifying, any one night in Charlotte was better than the whole week in Tampa…It’s not that the Tampa hall lacked enthusiasm; it’s that the Charlotte hall seemed absolutely on fire.”

In his Politico post, “Conventional warfare: Why Democrats won,” former Republican Congressman/’Morning Joe’ host Joe Scarborough says the conventions may prove more consequential than many pundits believe: “Maybe there seemed to be such a disparity between the two conventions because the Republican Party has never been the least bit excited about its nominee. Or maybe it’s because Democrats were simply blessed with a deeper bench of political athletes in 2012. But whatever the reason, Republicans were lapped by their rivals and may ultimately pay in November for botching Mitt Romney’s debut…And that means that these conventions will have mattered — a lot.”

TDS managing Editor Ed Kilgore shares one particularly encouraging observation about the convention in his Washington Monthly post, “Table Set“: “The only thing I’m really confident about is that the “enthusiasm gap” we’ve been told about the entire cycle may have largely dissipated… After Charlotte it appears Democratic “base” voters are going to be “fired up and ready to go.” They need a skillful organization to give their enthusiasm its maximum electoral clout.”

In his FiveThirtyEight post “Obama Would Be Big Favorite With ‘Fired Up’ Base,” Nate Silver explores the implications of the gap between ‘likely’ and ‘registered’ voters for each party. Although Republicans have a smaller gap, reducing the gap among Democrats should give Obama a more significant edge in electoral votes.

Lee Fang of The Nation reports that Obamacare repeal advocate and GOP veep nominee Paul Ryan has made an under-the-radar request for Obamacare funding for a clinic in his congressional district.

A couple of fun stats re the Dem Convention. The Daily Beast reports that: 1. More than 25 million people watched Clinton’s speech, while only 20 million people watched superbowl champs the New York Giants vs. the Dallas Cowboys 2nd half, and 2. Twitter reports 52,756 tweets in the minute following Obama’s speech — a new record for a political event.

It may be a hoax, but hacker-extortionists are reportedly threatening to release Romney’s tax records.

At Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Geoffrey Skelley discusses the ramifications of the Virginia State Board of Elections ruling that former Rep. Virgil Goode, the Constitution Party’s conservative nominee, has qualified for the state’s presidential ballot. Skelley’s bottom line: “…the only way Goode will truly be a spoiler is if the Virginia result is decided by just a relative handful of votes.”

I’ll close this week with a shout out to a couple of under-appreciated progressive heroes. Give it up for the DNC’s tough workhorse Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz for overseeing the most well-organized Democratic convention, maybe ever. Also MSNBC President Phil Griffin for whipping all other cable networks, including Fox and CNN, with MSNBC’s coverage of the Democratic convention, and, beyond that, for having the mettle to put together the best progressive news programming in TV history.

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