washington, dc

The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Political Strategy Notes

Geoffrey Skelley’s post “Less Than 50 Days to Go” at Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball takes a look at mid-to-late September Gallup RV polling relationship to final results for all 15 presidential elections since 1952, and notes: “The most obvious conclusion we can make from these data is that it’s better to be ahead at this point. Of the 15 elections between 1952 and 2008, only twice has a candidate who held a lead around this time failed to win the election.” Those two exceptions are Nixon in 1960 and Gore in 2000, who did in fact win the popular vote. Obama has a one-point lead in the most current Gallup poll of RVs, but is up higher in other polls.
WaPo’s Sean Sullivan has an encouraging update/round-up on Democratic prospects for holding their U.S. Senate majority.
Ditto for Eric Kleefeld’s Talking Points memo post “Senate Races Looking Up For Democrats” and Josh Kraushaar’s “Democrats Hold Momentum in Battle for Senate” at the National Journal.
Regarding the latest UMass Lowell/Boston Herald poll showing Scott Brown with a 4-point lead over Elizabeth Warren in the MA Senate race, coming after 5 other polls show Warren in the lead, poll analyst Mark Blumenthal puts it in perspective at HuffPo Pollster: “The five other polls have shown Warren leading by margins varying from two to six percentage points. Relatively small sample sizes likely contribute to the variation. All but one of the new surveys sampled from 400 to 600 likely voters, for reported margins of error ranging from +/- 4 percent to +/- 5 percent…When combined in the HuffPost Pollster Trend chart, designed to smooth out the random variation inherent in most polls, the new surveys show a virtual dead heat, with Warren just a half percentage point ahead of Brown (46.2 percent to 45.7 percent).”
Those who want to help Warren widen her very slim lead can do so at this ActBlue page.
At In These Times, David Moberg reports on the AFL-CIO’s innovative “RePurpose” GOTV program being mobilized in six battleground states. One interesting technique: ” …Union members can accumulate points for the electoral work they’ve done. They then exchange them…for the opportunity to strategically direct the campaign of any AFL-CIO-endorsed candidate or initiative…Knock on enough doors, for example, and earn the right to decide that more resources and volunteer time should go into phone banking for Obama…”
Jon Healey’s L.A. Times op-ed “Who knew Obama believed in redistribution? Umm, everybody” captures the “duh” reaction being heard at water coolers across America regarding the GOP-driven “expose.” He could have added that more Americans believe Romney, not Obama, is the more radical redistributionist, as indicated by recent polls opposing his support for additional tax breaks for the wealthy.
Deborah Charles of Reuters.com has an update on early voting as it begins in several states and she reviews the status of court challenges to Republican measures to restrict it.
At The Atlantic, Mariah Blake has a disturbing report on “The Ballot Cops,” the voter suppression activities of a group called ‘True the Vote,” which smells a lot like a modernized version of the Republicans’ disgraceful ‘ballot security’ campaigns of earlier elections.
Here’s a well-tailored headline Democrats need to broadcast far and wide: “Senate Republicans kill veterans jobs bill,” as reported by Joan McCarter at Daily Kos. Says McCarter: “The unemployment rate for Iraq, Afghanistan and Gulf War II-era Veterans–those who would have most benefited from the bill–is now at 10.9 percent, but Republicans blocked this bill because they don’t want anything that could remotely help anyone to happen under President Obama’s watch…That, and they don’t really give a shit about veterans, much like Mitt Romney, who called the men and women fighting in Afghanistan items on a laundry list.”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.