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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Time to Leave 2010 LVs Behind

Ten days after the 2010 midterm elections, it’s probably about time to stop measuring public opinion by those who voted, or who said they were going to vote, on November 2. Those pollsters who have followed this common-sense prescription, and are assessing the views of voting-age Americans, are noting better feelings about the President of the United States than we’ve been used to seeing in all those 2010 LV polls of the last couple of months.
Two new very reputable surveys, by Pew and by CBS, show Obama’s job approval/disapproval ratio as dead even among all adults. A third, by AP/GfK, has disapprovals exceeding approvals 51/47, but also shows the president’s personal favorability rating at a relatively happy 55/44 margin.
What this means is that we are entering a new election cycle with a different electorate that is almost certain to be significantly more favorable to Obama and the Democratic Party. “All adults” will obviously not vote in 2012, but it’s probable that their views will turn out to be closer to 2012 LVs than are those of 2010 LVs. It’s as good a time as any to turn the page.

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