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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Has Palin’s GOP Support Collapsed?

New findings released from a recent ABC/WaPo poll provide some pretty bad news for the future political prospects of Sarah Palin.
The poll shows her general standing with the public deteriorating significantly since the last ABC/WaPo survey last November, with 71% now saying she’s unqualified to be president, and only 37% thinking of her favorably (as opposed to 55% holding unfavorable views).
But what’s far worse in the poll is that 52% of Republicans think she’s unqualified to be president, and among conservative Republicans, only 45% believe she is qualified. (Sorry, the Post analysis doesn’t provide parallel numbers on all these categories, and the crosstabs haven’t been released yet). These represent large changes from the previous poll, where, for example, 66% of conservative Republicans thought she was qualified to be president.
According to ABC’s analysis of the poll, Palin’s favorable rating among Republicans has dropped from 76% in November to 66% today.
I’m not sure what developments would explain this phenomenon, unless you buy the idea that any increased exposure to Palin, even among conservatives and among Republicans, makes her less attractive. Certainly conservative opinion-leaders mostly raved about her memoir, Going Rogue, and loved her recent televised speech at the National Tea Party Convention.
Personally, I’d await a little more data before concluding that Palin has worn out her welcome with conservatives, given her exceptionally strong personal bond with so many of them. Maybe the ABC/WaPo poll has captured a sudden trend before others did. But maybe it’s an outlier. We’ll soon see.

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