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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Despite MSM Ostrich Reflex, GOP Running Scared

In his Informed Comment blog, Juan Cole, President of the Global Americana Institute, makes some interesting points in his post, “Why Republicans are Worried.

The corporate media are in the tank for a Republican comeback in 2010, and the GOP may in fact pick up some seats in the Senate and the House, though if employment ticks up by the fall, not as many as some are implying. The corporate media made a big deal about two Democrats who are stepping down but not about 6 Republicans who are. But the long-term trends look good for the Democratic Party.

Cole then presents a map captioned “This is what the 2008 electoral map would look like if the election were decided by 18-29 year-olds.” The map is a stunner, even considering reader comments about the relatively low voter turnout rates of youth (voters do grow older). There are only 8 red states, and only one of them, Georgia, is one of the ten largest states in electoral votes. There is one split state, Arkansas and two that have no data (Oregon and Colorado). The rest (39 states) are all a beautiful blue. The electoral vote tally of this map would be: Obama 455; McCain 57.
Readers of the demographic and opinion analysis of TDS Co-Editor Ruy Teixeira will not be surprised by this data. Still the map is a jaw-dropper. Cole adds:

Political views are formed in young adulthood and for most people remain stable in later life. Republican wedge issues such as gay-bashing, cutting government services and help to people, and the promise of more wars are increasingly unattractive to the younger generation and that is unlikely to change soon. We could be on the verge of another FDR moment, of a long period of Democratic dominance.
John Judis and Ruy Teixeira were prescient.

It appears that Republicans have good reason to be afraid.
Not to wallow in “the glass is half empty” analysis, of such a beautiful graphic, but the map also indicates that the state and national Democratic parties have some youth outreach work to do in the 8 states (AK, GA, ID, LA, OK, UT, WV, WY). Might not be a bad idea to pump some cash and energy into youth political education and recruitment projects in the three largest of the eight states, and see what happens.

3 comments on “Despite MSM Ostrich Reflex, GOP Running Scared

  1. George Ortega on

    As Teixeira noted in his 2009 analysis, Millennials are entering the voting pool at a rate of 4.5 million per year, and had a turnout rate increase in 2008 four times the national average. Factor in their increasing knowledge of their climate change-compromised future and their bleak overall economic prospects as a result of the 2008 recession, and you cannot but conclude that Republicans should be very, very afraid.
    Judis and Teixeira were spot on; the Republican Party will be largely inconsequential for at least the next few decades, and probably beyond.

    Reply
  2. Jim Ingraham on

    It’s good to read some commentary on the state of Republican’s strategic outlook. Our politics, like so much in American life is all focused on the here and now. We seem to have lost some of our capacity for the long term view. After reading “The Coming Democratic Majority” several years ago I had hope. You have reminded me today that that hope is still very much alive. The Republicans may well gain seats next November, but if your map is only half right it will be the Democrats decade. We need to get Healthcare passed, move onto Energy and Environment, then tackel education and infrastructure (including broadband) I was beginning to wonder if we were stopped dead in our tracks after only a year? But the sustainable democratic majority will emerge with the coming generation s olong as we keep our eye on the ball.

    Reply

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