As a registered voter in California, I’ve been watching the slowly developing 2026 gubernatorial race in which no Democrat seems to be breaking out of the bipartisan pack. I wrote an early assessment for New York:
The last three governors of California were all legendary, larger-than-life political figures. Arnold Schwarzenegger (2003–’11) was a huge Hollywood and pop-culture celebrity before he entered politics in a recall election that ejected his predecessor Gray Davis. He remains the last Republican to be elected as governor or U.S. senator in the Golden State. Jerry Brown (2011-2019) served in his second two-term gubernatorial stretch, having first been elected to the office way back in 1974 (he also ran for president three times). And the current and outgoing California governor, Gavin Newsom (2019-present), was San Francisco mayor and two-term lieutenant governor before stepping up to the top job in Sacramento. He, too, has dominated California politics in a big way.
The contest to choose the 41st governor of California currently has ten candidates — eight Democrats and two Republicans — and not that many voters could identify them in a line-up. Two Democratic politicians who did have some name ID and who might have dominated the field have given the race a pass. That would be former U.S. senator, vice president, and presidential nominee Kamala Harris, who may instead run for president again in 2028 (very likely against Newsom); and her successor in the Senate, Alex Padilla, who gained a lot of attention when he was wrestled to the ground and handcuffed by Secret Service agents for trying to ask Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem a question at a press conference.
With those big fish out of the tank, the remaining field is composed of candidates who are far from unknown, but are still small fry, relatively speaking. A well-known former Democratic member of the U.S. House, Katie Porter (who ran for the Senate in 2024) and current House member Eric Swalwell (who very briefly ran for president in 2020), are running. One current Democratic statewide office-holder, Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, is making a bid. So is former state comptroller Betty Yee, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former Biden administration HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra, and former state assembly majority leader Ian Calderon. The most recent Democrat to enter the race was hedge fund billionaire and liberal activist Tom Steyer (who ran a presidential campaign briefly more successful than Swalwell’s in 2020).
Alongside these eight Democrats are two Republicans: Fox News gabber and former British Tory political operative Steve Hilton, and current Riverside County (east of L.A.) sheriff Chad Bianco.
Polls consistently show these ten candidates struggling to break out of the pack. Early on, Porter, building on name ID from her unsuccessful 2024 Senate race, had some buzz, but she damaged herself by pitching a temper tantrum during a media interview that wasn’t going her way. Since then it’s become a sluggish race between snails. The latest public poll, from Emerson, released in early December, shows Bianco at 13 percent, Hilton and Swalwell at 12 percent, Porter at 11 percent, Villaraigosa at 5 percent, and Steyer and Becerra at 4 percent. The remaining candidates combine for 7 percent, and there’s an impressive 31 percent who are undecided or don’t know who these people are. Everyone but Porter has name ID under 50 percent, and hers isn’t all that positive. You may think that’s because it’s so very early in the contest, but in fact, the primary is on June 2, just over six months away.
That primary, by the way, is part of California’s non-partisan top two system in which the first- and second-place finishers, regardless of party, proceed to the general election. And the early polling has created a bit of a freak-out among Democrats bewailing their candidates’ lack of star power, as Politico noted:
“California Democrats have a math problem: They’ve added so many candidates in the race to succeed Gavin Newsom that two Republicans could end up winning the state’s quirky ‘jungle primary,’ shutting the Democrats out.
“A Democratic wipeout is still unlikely. But the prospect of a humiliating pile-up, with no clear powerbroker to act as traffic cop, has put the state’s political class increasingly on edge with each new entrant into the field.”
Even though the race should intensify considerably as we get deeper into 2026, the candidate filing deadline isn’t until March. So the power vacuum in the gubernatorial field could yet attract a late entry from some celebrity (Hollywood is chock full of them) or insanely rich self-funder (one such bag of money, Los Angeles developer Rick Caruso, could run for governor if he doesn’t run again for L.A. mayor). Or more Lilliputs could join the race hoping that lightning strikes (e.g., state Attorney General Rob Bonta).
If the field remains as it is, keep an eye on Steyer, whose vast wealth could buy him the name ID he needs. Ideological divisions and factional alignments could also be key. Thurmond is touting his support for a single-payer health care system and has the endorsement by California’s powerful teachers unions. Villaraigosa (who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2018) has a well-worn reputation as a Democratic “moderate.” Porter has scars from her battles with the crypto industry, which savaged her with negative ads in 2024, while Calderon has become a crypto bro ally. Becerra can run on his legal battles with the first Trump administration (when he served as California attorney general) and Swalwell has been trading insults with Trump for years. Meanwhile the two Republicans in the race can be expected to compete for a Trump endorsement (Hilton is a long-time Trump backer on Fox News, while Bianco is a former Oath Keeper).
Ethnic and geographical rivalries could matter too. Becerra, Calderon, and Villaraigosa are Latino; Yee is Asian-American; Thurmond is Black. Calderon, Porter, and Villaraigosa are from the greater Los Angeles area; Steyer, Swallwell, Thurmond, and Yee are from the San Francisco Bay area; and Becerra is from Sacramento. Schwarzenegger was the last California governor from Southern California, but he also represented the last gasp of truly moderate Republicanism.
While the field could shrink or expand even more before the filing deadline, the next governor of California probably won’t enter office with anything like the street cred and national prominence of the other 21st century chief executives, who often acted as though the state is an independent principality with its own foreign and domestic policies. Newsom will also leave some chronic fiscal problems, a perpetually fractious legislature, all sorts of natural resources and environmental challenges, and a housing “affordability” crisis that has spurred a national debate over a so-called “abundance” agenda prioritizing regulatory streamlining to speed up housing and other construction. It’s a lot, but whoever wins will become a lot more famous, fast.
ThinkingGuy:
Look, I understand your anger and your desire to hit back. Palin is really pissing me off too. I’m not advocating that Obama and Biden not respond to attacks. On the contrary; direct response is essential. But the most effective counterattack won’t be matching Palin’s cheap shots with some of our own. There are so many contradictions between the McCain/Palin messages and their policies, it’s not hard to pick them apart (and Obama/Biden are already doing so).
My experience in sports, business and politics is to trust your training, stick to the game plan and make your shots — in the political world, that means building a strong campaign organization, staying on message and getting out the vote. And if someone throws an elbow, you don’t throw one back; you just don’t back down.
Um, I do not think when the enemy is coming AT you with pitchforks is a good time to start putting them away.
Sorry folks, the MSM is not going to tell it like it is, but the Republicans have unleashed Beauty Queen, and she is going to draw nasty blood anywhere and everywhere she goes..with lies, and insults. We can and MUST fight back with equal venom, or say hello to president McCain.
Ah another “reformer with results,” I guess the McCain campaign is so tied to Bush they are even stealing his campaign themes.
Open Memo to Democrats:
Put down your pitchforks and pick up your ploughshares.
The only way we’re going to win the presidency is through hard work. Ignore the media and partisan “spokespersons”; don’t waste any more time trolling the blogosphere for Republican gaffes and outrageous statements; resist the temptation to vent or be snide. From now until polls close on Nov. 4, we need to put all our efforts into getting out the vote. And the only way to get out the vote is to make phone calls, knock on doors and be physically visible in your community.
History tells us that turnout is the most important factor in close races, and there is no doubt now that this race will be close. Remember 2000? We can fume all we want about a “stolen” election (the thief being either the Supreme Court or Ralph Nader), but the fact is that too many Florida Democrats were either AWOL or voted for someone other than Gore (unbelievably, 12% of Florida Democrats voted for Bush!). If Democrats stay home or vote for McCain because 1) Hillary Clinton isn’t the nominee, 2) McCain/Palin successfully raise doubts about Obama/Biden or 3) no one bothered to ask them to vote, then we will have failed as a political party.
For almost two years now, America has resoundingly supported the Democrats’ optimistic message of change. Americans want our soldiers out of Iraq. Americans want comprehensive health care reform. Americans want a fair and equitable tax policy. Americans want the federal government to provide real leadership and responsible oversight of the economy. Americans want a foreign policy that projects America’s best attributes, not our worst fears. Americans want to roll up their sleeves and solve our energy problems once and for all. We are on the right side of every major issue facing the country today.
The primaries are history. The conventions over. Our job for the next 60 days is to deliver one single message to as many voters — Democratic, Independent and Republican — as possible: that Barack Obama and Joe Biden will bring about the change we all want, and John McCain and Sarah Palin will not. The numbers are in our favor. “Base” Democrats outnumber “base” Republicans this year. If we mobilize Democrats and win over as many Independents and moderate Republicans (those who are turned off by Palin’s vitriol and extreme views) as possible, we can win this election.
BUT WE MUST ACT! Action, powered by a positive and authentic message of change, is the only path to victory. Action is the “secret sauce” that has lifted the Obama campaign from a mere sliver of hope to a real movement. Because at the end of the day, rhetoric and policy positions and good intentions are meaningless if our efforts fall short.
If you’re in this to improve our country, to enact meaningful change and to prove that Democrats have better answers to the pressing questions of the day, then I’m asking you to do the most you possibly can to encourage your family, friends and neighbors to vote, and to vote for Barack Obama and Joe Biden.