For a while there, the independent ticket of ex-Democrats Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Nicole Shanahan seemed to be taking crucial votes away from Democrat Joe Biden, at least as indicated by comparing three-way and five-way (with Cornel West and Jill Stein) polls to head-to-head matchups of the incumbent and Donald Trump. Now, even as Biden has all but erased his polling deficit against Trump, he’s getting some more good news in surveys that include other candidates.
Two recent major national polls show Biden running better in a five-way than a two-way race. According to NBC News, Biden moves from two points down to two points up when the non-major-party candidates are included. In the latest Marist poll, Biden leads Trump by three points head-to-head and by five points in a five-way race. Since left-bent candidates West and Stein are pulling 5 percent in the former poll and 4 percent in the latter (presumably taking very few votes from Trump), you have to figure Kennedy is beginning to cut into the MAGA vote to an extent that should get Team Trump’s attention. And it has, NBC News reports:
“Former President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he’s confident that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will pull more votes away from President Joe Biden than from him — a net win for the Republican’s candidacy.
“’He is Crooked Joe Biden’s Political Opponent, not mine,’Trump wrote on Truth Social late last month. ‘I love that he is running!’
“Behind closed doors, however, Trump is less sure. A Republican who was in the room with Trump this year as he reviewed polling said Trump was unsure how Kennedy would affect the race, asking the other people on hand whether or not Kennedy was actually good for his candidacy.”
Politico notes that Kennedy is drawing higher favorability numbers from Republican voters than from Democratic ones, which could indicate a higher ceiling for RFJ Jr. among Trump defectors. And it’s generally assumed from his past performances that there is a lower ceiling on Trump’s support than on Biden’s; he needs to be able to win with significantly less than a majority of the popular vote, as one Republican told Politico:
“’If the Trump campaign doesn’t see this as a concern, then they’re delusional,’ Republican consultant Alice Stewart said. ‘They should be looking at this from the standpoint that they can’t afford to lose any voters — and certainly not to a third-party candidate that shares some of [Trump’s] policy ideas.’”
One likely reason that Kennedy could be appealing to Republicans is the residual effect from the positive attention he received from conservative media when he was running against Biden in the Democratic primaries; his identification with anti-vaccine conspiracy theories also resonates more positively on the right side of the political spectrum than the left. So it’s in the interest of Team Trump to begin telling the former president’s sympathizers that RFK Jr. is actually a lefty, and that started happening recently, as the New York Times reported: “Mr. Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, pointed in particular to Mr. Kennedy’s views on climate change and the environment, writing on his social media site that Mr. Kennedy was more ‘radical Left’ than Mr. Biden.”
The idea, of course, is not only to discourage potential Trump voters from drifting toward the independent candidate, but to encourage potential Biden voters to consider a Kennedy vote.
If Kennedy continues to draw votes from both Biden and Trump, each of their campaigns will need to make a strategic decision about how to deal with him: Do you ignore him and count on the usual fade in support afflicting non-major-party presidential candidates as Election Day nears, or do you attack him as too far left (if you’re Trump) or too far right (if you’re Biden) and try to make him a handicap to your major-party opponent? The more aggressive approach has become common among Democrats seeking to intervene in Republican primaries (or in the recent case of the California Senate race, a nonpartisan top-two primary) by loudly attacking candidates they’d prefer to face in the general election, encouraging Republicans to flock to the supposed menace to progressivism. This kind of tactic — if deployed with some serious dollars — could have an effect on Kennedy’s base of support.
Certainly Trump seems to be considering it. With his usual practice of saying the quiet part out loud, Trump opined: “If I were a Democrat, I’d vote for RFK Jr. every single time over Biden, because he’s frankly more in line with Democrats.”
Trying to minimize losses to Kennedy and maximize opposite-party votes for Kennedy could become a routine practice down the stretch. Where and by whom this strategy is pursued will depend in part on where RFK Jr. is ultimately on the ballot. Right now he has nailed down ballot access in just two states, Utah and Michigan. CBS News reports the Kennedy-Shanahan ticket is close to securing a spot on the November ballot in a number of other states:
“Kennedy’s campaign says it has completed signature gathering in seven other states in addition to Utah and Michigan — Nevada, Idaho, Hawaii, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nebraska and Iowa.
“The super PAC supporting Kennedy, American Values 2024, says it has collected enough signatures in Arizona, Georgia and South Carolina.”
Coping with Kennedy could become a game of three-dimensional chess between the Biden and Trump campaigns. But if it begins to look like RFK Jr. has become an existential threat to Democrats or to Republicans, you can bet they’ll go medieval on him without even a moment’s hesitation.
The McCain campaign is shameless. Consider this idea; it may be over the top, but so is the Republican commerical about sex education:
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A few video clips of John McCain in ill health. A newspaper headline about his melanoma.
A clip of Sarah Palin saying something silly. A headline of her election as mayor of Wasillia, population 6000 [or whatever].
Voiceover: John McCain says he has the judgment and experience to be president. But despite his health history, he chooses an inexperienced new governor as his running mate. Why? To try to win over Hillary Clinton supporters.
Country First?
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I suggest this because I think the Republican willingness to put inexperienced mediocrities like Dan Quayle, Clarence Thomas, Harriet Miers, Heckuvajob Brownie, et al., into high office is unpatriotic. They select on the basis of tactical advantage and ideological submission rather than merit.
“MILF” and “bimbo” — those are sexist terms when applied toward any woman. When you imply that Palin’s success is based primarily on her looks (“failed beauty queen” “second-rate beauty queen”), that’s sexist. She did legitimately win election to mayor and governor. It’s fair to question her qualifications for the vice presidency; it’s not fair to label her a “bimbo.”
When did Bill Clinton call voters “lazy, short sighted, shiny object watching dullards”? When did Bill Clinton express contempt and hatred toward his opponents? When did Bill Clinton call Pat Robertson a “Jew-hating Nazi he-devil”? You may have thought those things yourself, but Bill Clinton never uttered those words (or anything close to them). Bill Clinton did, however, stick to his core message “It’s the economy, stupid.”
You mistake lack of contempt and vitriol as weakness. You accuse people who don’t share your aggressive, denigrating tone as “lacking a spine.” I read Naomi Foner’s article; she’s arguing that we go after Palin’s positions. Hit her hard with her hypocrisy. Absolutely. But your language is way beyond Foner’s.
“Leave the political commentary to those who are not afraid of a bloody nose.” Tough talk. There’s a big difference between a solid right hook and a sucker punch, head butt or knee to the groin. My problem with your approach isn’t the fight itself; it’s how you fight. This isn’t some ultimate fighting cage match. It’s not a silly playground game of one-upmanship. It’s a fight to get more people on your side. And there are lots of ways to do that.
Stop panicking. You’re like the soldier who can’t hold his fire and gives away his position. Have some confidence in a candidate and a campaign that has done pretty damn well so far. So McCain is getting a good bump in the polls. If you thought that the country was just going to reject McCain out of hand and lovingly embrace Obama, then you completely misunderstand Americans (but of course you do, because you hold them in such contempt).
And by the way, though I do not expect anyone to believe what I or anyone says simply because we say it, I’d like to point out this article..written by a WOMAN…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/naomi-foner/were-in-big-trouble_b_124686.html
She does not seem to have a whole lot of trouble hitting Palin where it should hurt either. And she is just one of many women who undoubtedly feel the same way.
And she, unlike me, actually gets paid to say this stuff.
I’m no frothing lunatic from the woods, people. I am someone who, like many many others, is beginning to see how much Obama is in trouble. Very serious trouble….owing a lot to what I have been talking about…not enough attacks, and too much cerebral dancing.
That is the second time you have accused me of sexism..either grow a spine and come after what I say with an actual argument, or leave the political commentary to those who are not afraid of a bloody nose. But I am not about to give the MILF a pass simply because she happens to be a woman..anymore than black candidates should get a pass because they are black, or anyone should get a pass simply because of race or gender.
If wanting to hit Palin hard, because she deserves to be hit hard because of her extremism, her lies, and her positions makes me a sexist, you have a warped definition of the word. There are plenty of able women out there…Palin is not one of them, and if I see her weakness as the fact that she is a failed beauty queen with an empty head, i will say so, just as much as I will come after McCain for being a foul tempered old fool.
And you want a name? Bill Clinton. For all his many many faults, he was not afraid to hit back dirty and often during campaigns, and he is the only Democrat elected to the White House twice in the last 30 years.
I am not sure what polls or studies you are reading my friend, but we are losing this race, and the Democratic Congress that we control has the lowest aggregate approval rating in the history of Congress. The reason? They are all being led be milquetoast diplomats like yourself afraid of getting scratched in a real, honest to God fight with Republicans…the ones who actually know how to attack and..say it with me…WIN.
ThinkingGuy:
Just who do you think is going to be persuaded by your sexism, contempt and hatred? The “John Q. American” you mock? Women (who just LOVE the term “MILF”)? Independents?
Please show me one Democrat who has won an election using your suggested tactics. Democrats have won, and are continuing to win, local, state and Congressional elections because they’re finally begin to understand the “lazy, short sighted, shiny object watching dullards” that most us more reasonably — and correctly — call our neighbors, co-workers and friends. Sorry all those folks aren’t up to your standards. But they’re the ones you have to win over if you want to be elected to national office.
Not sexy enough.
We Democrats are getting skinned alive in this election, despite all of history and all of the numbers a mere six months ago giving us a free ride to take the biggest electoral vistory in a generation. And the reason why? Sexiness.
You got a gone toting MILF and a lying mean spirited POW on the other ticket. You think ads that talk about issues and graft from Wasilla are going to speak to John Q. American, (aka. John Q. Redneck) no.
The voting public, as it proved by the re-election of Bush, are lazy, short sighted, shiny object watching dullards. If we do not hit back with as much venom, we will lose, as we always do.
How about an ad showing Palin as the second rate Beauty Queen, Jew Hating nazi she-devil that she is? This is what we need to do, because everyone else is doing it.
Define her as the evil that she is.
Spot on. And here’s the ad I would propose:
The idea is to mimic the MasterCard “priceless” ads in tone, structure and imagery. [All claims and figures need to be rigorously fact-checked.]
Opens with an establishing shot of Wasilla, Alaska, cut to interior shot of an ice hockey rink with kids playing on the ice. Ends with graphic overlay with sound and visual FX: WSJ headline “Palin’s Hockey Rink Leads to Legal Troubles: Misstep leads to years of litigation and at least $1.3 million in extra costs”
VO: “Cost overruns caused by Mayor Sarah Palin’s mismanagement of a major city project: $1.3 million dollars.”
Still shots of “Washington lobbyists” shaking hands (ideal would be a picture showing Palin shaking hands with one of the lobbyists she hired). Ends with graphic overlay with sound and visual FX: Washington Post headline: “Palin’s Small Alaska Town Secured Big Federal Funds” $26.9 Million Dollars for a town of 6,700 people.
VO: “Amount that lobbyists, hired by Mayor Palin, secured in federal earmarks for her town of 6,700: $26.9 million dollars.”
Moving overhead shot of Ketchikan, Alaska airport, zooming in to proposed location of “bridge to nowhere.” Ends with graphic overlay with sound and visual FX: headline from Anchorage Daily News: “Palin touts stance on ‘bridge to nowhere,’ doesn’t note flip-flop”
“Amount of taxpayer dollars Gov. Palin kept for the ‘bridge to nowhere’ she initially supported and was never built: $223 million dollars.”
Clip of Gov. Palin from Republican Convention “In politics, there are some candidates who use change to promote their careers.” Ends with graphic overlay with sound and visual FX: universal “no” sign (red circle with diagonal line) stamped over still image of Palin at podium.
VO: “A candidate who says one thing and does another: absolutely unaffordable.”
VO and graphic: “Barack Obama and Joe Biden: Change We Can Trust.”
Can do a companion version for John McCain.