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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

New Trend in Penn?

For much of the last month, we’ve been treated with a series of polls showing Hillary Clinton blowing out Barack Obama in Pennsylvania.
This week, that started to change:
A survey from Rasmussen yesterday showed Clinton leading Obama by just five points, 47% to 42% — down from 10 a week ago;
A poll from Survey USA yesterday showed Clinton leading 53% to 41% — down from 19 the month before;
A survey from Quinnipiac University today shows Clinton leading by nine points, 50% to 41% — down from 12 points two weeks ago; and
A survey from Public Policy Polling today shows Obama actually taking a lead, 45% to 43% — that’s a shift of 28 points from the last time PPP polled the state two and a half weeks ago.
There is definitely movement in this primary, so how does this change expectations? Does HRC no longer need to win by double-digits?
Interesting question. But remember there’s another twenty days to go.

One comment on “New Trend in Penn?

  1. sporcupine on

    Does Senator Clinton still need double digits in Pennsylvania?
    Well, suppose that she comes out of there with a 12 point lead, 56 to 44, and repeats that in every single state after that, and we count Michigan and Florida the way they voted in the improper primaries.
    Would she catch up in pledged delegates?
    No, she wouldn’t.
    Try taking the Slate calculator and just sliding the top arrow to 56% to set every single state to that margin.
    And of course, she won’t win by 12 points in all those other states, so she needs a truly monster lead in Pennsylvania to have even a whisper of prayer.

    Reply

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