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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Popular Vote Math

On the heels of Adam Nagourney’s survey yesterday of Hillary Clinton’s difficult strategy for winning the nomination, Ben Smith of The Politico gets deep into the math of HRC’s effort to claim a majority of the overall popular vote. He concludes, like many observers, that absent a deal to “count” popular votes from MI and FL, HRC’s goal of a popular vote majority depends on either big landslide wins in the upcoming states she’s expected to do well in (PA, KY, WV and PR), or surprise showings in states where Obama is thought to be leading (e.g., NC, OR and IN). Complicating the picture even more is the fact that four caucus states (IA, NV, ME and WA) have not reported, and may be incapable of tabulating, actual raw votes.
Smith also links to a useful if complicated chart at RealClearPolitics that displays various popular vote configurations. It has Obama up by just over 700,000 votes without FL, MI or the four non-popular-vote-reporting caucus states, three of which were won by Obama.

One comment on “Popular Vote Math

  1. gargoyle0025 on

    Every “libertarian” I know always votes Republican. I’ve also noticed an almost obssession with race issues and “the blacks” among the folks I know who refer to themselves as “libertarians” – and this is in Massachusetts. Frankly, I think most “libertarians” are conservative who think they’re too “cool” to be labelled Republicans.
    Forget about ’em.


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