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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

The Road Ahead For Democrats

In the wake of Barack Obama’s very good week, there are a variety of assessments available about the shape of the Democratic contest going forward.
At Open Left, Chris Bowers offers a state-by-state pledged delegate count that shows Obama up 1,137 to 1,002.
At RealClearPolitics, Jay Cost has a complex analysis of the demographics of Obama and Clinton voters that suggests to him that HRC has a decent chance for a late comeback, particularly if “momentum” isn’t that big a factor, and if she makes no mistakes.
In terms of potential momentum-changers, there’s at least one article, at ABC News, reporting that John Edwards is leaning towards an endorsement of HRC.
And SurveyUSA, which has had a pretty good track record of late, has a new poll of OH out showing HRC with a pretty robust, 17-point lead over Obama in that crucial state.
Democratic Convention Watch, which maintains a fairly conservative list of superdelegate preferences, reports that Obama’s keeping up with HRC in endorsements, but isn’t yet cutting into her lead.
But AP’s Ron Fournier predicts that superdelegates could easily turn against HRC based on a long list of accumulated grievances against the Clintons.
Hard to say exactly where this contest goes next.

2 comments on “The Road Ahead For Democrats

  1. C.B. on

    Jay Cost’s analysis states that there will be “rough parity from here until the end of the primary season.”
    Obama has 135 more pledged delegates than Clinton roght now and may have as many as 150 before 3/4.
    “Rough parity” from here means that Clinton must fight for MI and FL to be seated as is and for Superdelegates to make the decision in order to get the nomination.
    “Rough parity” from here means where we this contests goes is to a huge destructive convention fight in order to make Clinton the nominee.

  2. Matt on

    If you look at the crosstabs for the SurveryUSA poll in Ohio, they are a little weird. As Ben Smith points out, they have independents making up just 11 percent of the Democratic electorate. Also, they have Obama winning just 73 percent of African-Americans, which in the wake of his 90 percent showing in the Potomac Primary, seems a little low. Even with those adjustments, HRC has a healthy lead, but I really doubt she’s up by 17 points.


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