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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Iowa Bounce

The first poll of NH to be conducted after the results from Iowa were in shows a decent “bounce” for Barack Obama, but not for Mike Huckabee.
The Democratic poll by Rasmussen has Obama up ten points over Clinton–37%-27%–with Edwards at 19%. Clinton led Obama 31%-28%, with Edwards at 18%, in the last Rasmussen poll, conducted before Xmas.
On the Republican side, Rasmussen has McCain moving ahead of Romney 31%-26% in NH, with Huckabee running fourth at 11%, trailing Ron Paul’s 14%. This represents a precise reversal of McCain and Romney’s standing, while Huckabee hasn’t moved at all.
Post-Iowa “bounces” in the past have often increased a few days after the Caucuses, so this is hardly the final word. But right now the CW that Obama and McCain became front-runners after Iowa looks reasonably sound.
UPCATEGORY: Democratic Strategist
Both these polls closely track the Rasmussen findings on the Republican side, with John McCain holding a six-point lead over Romney, and Huckabee mired in the low teens.

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