I figured this was as good a time as any to come clean about reasons Democrats are fretting the 2024 election results despite some quite positive signs for Kamala Harris, so I wrote them up at New York:
One of the most enduring of recent political trends is a sharp partisan divergence in confidence about each party’s electoral future. Democrats are forever “fretting” or even “bed-wetting;” they are in “disarray” and pointing fingers at each other over disasters yet to come. Republicans, reflecting the incessant bravado of their three-time presidential nominee, tend to project total, overwhelming victory in every election, future and sometimes even past. When you say, as Donald Trump often does, that “the only way we lose is if they cheat,” you are expressing the belief that you never ever actually lose.
The contrast between the fretting donkey and the trumpeting elephant is sometimes interpreted as a matter of character. Dating back to the early days of the progressive blogosphere, many activists have claimed that Democrats (particularly centrists) simply lack “spine,” or the remorseless willingness put aside doubts or any other compunctions in order to fight for victory in contests large and small. In this Nietzschean view of politics, as determined by sheer will-to-power (rather than the quality of ideas or the impact of real-world conditions), Democrats are forever bringing a knife to a gun fight or a gun to a nuclear war.
Those of us who are offended by this anti-intellectual view of political competition, much less its implicit suggestion that Democrats become as vicious and demagogic as the opposition often is, have an obligation to offer an alternative explanation for this asymmetric warfare of partisan self-confidence. I won’t offer a general theory dating back to past elections, but in 2024, the most important reasons for inordinate Democratic fear are past painful experience and a disproportionate understanding of the stakes of this election.
It’s very safe to say very few Democrats expected Hillary Clinton to lose to Donald Trump in 2016, or that Joe Biden would come so close to losing to Donald Trump in 2020. No lead in the polls looks safe because in previous elections involving Trump, they weren’t.
To be clear, the national polls weren’t far off in 2016; the problem was that sparse public polling of key states didn’t alert Democrats to the possibility Trump might pull an Electoral College inside straight by winning three states that hadn’t gone Republican in many years (since 1984 in Wisconsin, and since 1988 in Michigan and Pennsylvania). 2020 was just a bad year for pollsters. In both cases, it was Trump who benefitted from polling errors. So of course Democrats don’t view any polling lead as safe. Yes, the pollsters claim they’ve compensated for the problems that affect their accuracy in 2016 and 2020, and it’s even possible they over-compensated, meaning that Harris could do better than expected. But the painful memories remain fresh.
If you believe the maximum Trump ‘24 message about Kamala Harris’s intentions as president, it’s a scary prospect: she’s a Marxist (or Communist) who wants to replace white American citizens with the scum of the earth, which her administration is eagerly inviting across open borders with government benefits to illegally vote Democratic. It’s true that polls show a hard kernel — perhaps close to half — of self-identified Republicans believe some version of the Great Replacement Theory that has migrated from the right-wing fringes to the heart of the Trump campaign’s messaging, and that’s terrifying since there’s no evidence whatsoever for it. But best we can tell, the Trump voting base is a more-or-less equally divided coalition of people who actually believe some if not all of what their candidate says about the consequences of defeat, and people who just think Trump offers better economic and tougher immigration policies. While the election may be an existential crisis for Trump himself, since his own personal liberty could depend on the outcome, there’s not much evidence that all-or-nothing attitude is shared beyond the MAGA core of his coalition.
By contrast, Democrats don’t have to exercise a lurid sense of imagination to feel fear about Trump 2.0. They have Trump 1.0 as a precedent, with the added consideration that the disorganization and poor planning that curbed many of the 45th president’s authoritarian tendencies will almost certainly be reduced in 2025. Then there’s the escalation in his extremist rhetoric. In 2016 he promised a Muslim travel ban and a southern border wall. Now he’s talking about mass deportation program for undocumented immigrants and overt ideological vetting of legal immigrants. In 2016 he inveighed against the “deep state” and accused Democrats of actively working against the interests of the country. Now he’s pledging to carry out a virtual suspension of civil service protections and promising to unleash the machinery of law enforcement on his political enemies, including the press. As the furor over Project 2025 suggests, there’s a general sense that the scarier elements in Trump’s circle of advisors are planning to hit the ground running with radical changes in policies and personnel that can’t be reversed.
An important psychological factor feeding Democratic fears of a close election is the unavoidable fact that Trump has virtually promised to repeat or even surpass his 2020 effort to overturn the results if he loses. So anything other than a landslide victory for Harris will be fragile and potentially reversible. This is a deeply demoralizing prospect. It’s one thing to keep people focused on maximum engagement with politics through November 5. It’s another thing altogether to plan for a long frantic slog that won’t be completed until January 20.
Trump has been working hard to perfect the flaws in his 2020 post-election campaign that led to the failed January 6 insurrection, devoting a lot of resources to pre-election litigation and the compilation of post-election fraud allegations.
Though if you look hard you can find scattered examples of Democrats talking about denying a victorious Trump re-inauguration on January 20, none of that chatter is coming from the Democratic Party, the Harris-Walz campaign, or a critical mass of the many, many players who would be necessary to challenge an election defeat. Election denial in 2024 is strictly a Republican show.
As my colleague Jonathan Chait recently explained, the odds of Republicans winning control of the Senate in November are extremely high. That means that barring a political miracle, a President Harris would be constrained both legislatively and administratively, in terms of the vast number of executive-branch and judicial appointments the Senate has the power to confirm, reject, or simply ignore.
If Trump wins, however, he will have a better-than-even chance at a governing trifecta. This would not only open up the floodgates for extremist appointments aimed at remaking the federal government and adding to the Trumpification of the judiciary, but would unlock the budget reconciliation process whereby the trifecta party can make massive policy changes on up-or-down party-line votes without having to worry about a Senate filibuster.
Overall, Democrats have more reason to fear this election, and putting on some fake bravado and braying like MAGA folk won’t change the underlying reasons for that fear. The only thing that can is a second Trump defeat which sticks.
salvation is by grace through faith it is a gift of God. Baptism is an outward expression of your faith. The only problem I have with a person not being baptized or the “silent witness”. If I had to go to court and my witness was silent, what good would they be for me. But in those regards in the political realm your faith does you no good except for your personal decisions. It is in our coutries best interest that we have biblical dialogue to the politics of our country.
Jason:
In case you or other commenters are still reading, it’s beginning to dawn on me that what I should have said in the original post is that full immersion baptism is central to Baptist “identity,” not to doctrine. Certainly when I was growing up in the First Baptist Church of LaGrange, Georgia, the practice of full immersion, age-of-consent baptism (not to mention the presence of a baptismal fount right behind the centrally located pulpit) is what most notably separated us from our Methodist and Presbyterian brethren and rivals.
Nowadays, perhaps (as I infer from your last comment) denominational affiliation is more fluid, what with mixed marriages and frequent “conversions” and a general weakening of ancentral connections to particular houses of worship. And obviously, issues like biblical inerrancy and moral theology provide sharper divisions among Protestant denominations than in the past. So maybe “Baptist identity” is less tied up in a particular form of baptism than before. Considering that a hard-line position on separation of church and state also used to be central to Baptist identity (it certainly was when I was growing up), maybe my view of the denomination is simply a bit out of date.
In any event, thanks to all for a stimulating discussion.
One final thing, Ed, since I’ve grown up Baptist and am in Greenville, South Carolina, I can tell you I’ve met plenty of folks who have come from paedo Baptist backgrounds (Presbyterian, Episcopalian come to mind of actual individuals) who attend for years who choose not to be baptized by immersion in a Southern Baptist church.
No one thinks any less of them, they just realize that is a matter of conscious and leave it at that. I can quickly think of some faithful people, especially to their particular church, who have been for years, who just aren’t members due to where their conscious leads them on baptism.
And it works in reverse to. I know a chairman of a local college’s political science department who would make a fine church officer in a Presbyterian church he attends, but refuses nominations to such because of where his convictions are on particular points of Presbyterian doctrine.
Okay, Baptists, I surrender on the theological point about the relationship of baptism to salvation, and apologize for the error, which was based less on sheer ignorance than on a misunderstanding of the famous Baptist preoccupation with the validity of different forms of baptism. I really am surprised to learn from Jason that there are Southern Baptist churches that accept infant baptism as valid.
I would hope that you might acknowledge that my mistake has virtually no bearing on the political point I was trying to make: that having chosen to identify himself as a Baptist, John McCain’s rather casual attitude towards baptism as an option based on one’s “spiritual needs” is jarring, and will be perceived as such by South Carolina Baptists.
On two small points raised by Jason, yes, I’m aware there’s no organic connection between continental Anabaptists and Anglo-American Baptists, unless you get into the weeds of the Tudor-era Strangers’ Church and so forth. That’s why I called them “theological” ancestors. But without question, I stumbled by attaching an active verb to the word “salvation.”
Thanks for commenting.
Ed Kilgore
I hate to beat a dead horse, but your correction didn’t amount to much.
In the essay you say: “Well, you’d think anyone who’s been attending a Baptist Church for 15 years might have caught wind of the fact that the denomination, as its name suggests, believes rather adamantly that baptism is necessary for salvation, a reasonably important “spiritual need” by most measurements.”
In your correction you say: “I may have erred by not making it clear that Baptists do not consider baptism sufficient for salvation”.
It’s not that you “may have erred.” You did err. And your tone was snide and condescending.
You have been corrected by many Baptists, and yet your admission was sheepish and half-hearted.
I am a Baptist pastor, and can tell you that despite our name, we Baptists actually have a “lower” view of Baptist than many denomiations.
Please, do some research before you write things. Your voice is powerful, so don’t abuse it with ignorance. Just learn before you write.
Wow, you don’t know much about either Baptist history or theology.
Southern Baptists most certainly do not require immersion baptism (credo baptism) for recognition of salvation. Many Southern Baptist churches do not accept paedo baptism as sufficient baptism, and as such will not allow a person to become a member of a church, but that only means that individual cannot vote in church matters. A lack of recognition of credo baptism means that they will pass no judgment on a person’s salvation. Not e that since Southern Baptist churches are largely independent of one another, some Southern Baptist churches will in fact accept paedo Baptism, it varies on a case by case basis.
Anabaptists are in no way related to modern Baptists. Anabaptists were continental. Modern Baptists came from an entirely different strain of independents in England in the 17th century.
You said, “Baptists actually differ on whether it is possible to achieve salvation without baptism, but certainly reject McCain’s apparent idea that it’s optional if you want to be a Baptist in any meaningful sense of the term.”
Oh Southern Baptists most certainly do not differ on this at all. And besides, no Southern Baptist worth his salt would ever write the phrase “achieve salvation” as that borders on an acknowledgment of works salvation. They would say “receive salvation”.
As far as Sen. McCain’s idea on being a Baptist, you need to ask is he a voting member of that church, and if so, did that particular church believe that credo baptism was a prerequisite for joining that particular body, as one does not become a member of the denomination at large. Churches are members of the Souther Baptist convention, but individuals are members of particular churches.
Ed–You’re correct that believer’s baptism by immersion is a requirement for admission into the Baptist fellowship. But this Southern Baptist turned Presbie is still bothered by the notion that it is somehow essential to salvation, and I’m honestly surprised that you learned that growing up. Baptism is a human ritual; to make salvation dependent on a human ritual controlled by the church is to deny God’s sovereignty, and further veers dangerously close to the notion that a person can save herself. To the Southern Baptists who taught me, there is no mediator but Jesus Christ; what God does through Christ isn’t dependent on anything a church or an individual does.
That said, I’d hardly be surprised if there were some Baptists who feel differently; after all, there are at least 57 different varieties of ’em.
Er, well, not according to the denomination in question (the Southern Baptist Convention). They require baptism for membership in the local church, but make a distinction between individual local churches and the “church” as “Body of Christ”. This second, larger sense of the word “church” is made up of all redeemed persons (even if they’re not members of Baptist local church congregations, and even if they’re not Baptists!).
(Again referencing the statement of faith I linked to earlier, section VI “The Church”.)
So no, John McCain probably doesn’t qualify for membership in the local church at which he attends. But neither he nor his church nor the denomination to which it is affiliated “believe[] rather adamantly that baptism is necessary for salvation”.
As an aside, I’m curious — could you point me at a Baptist statement of faith (or similar) that claims it is impossible “to achieve salvation without baptism”? (This is an aside because we have the statement of faith of the denomination in question — the SBC — and they certainly don’t make this claim.) I’m not doubting you; I’ve just never come across such a Baptist, so finding such a creature would expand my understanding.
I may have erred by not making it clear that Baptists do not consider baptism sufficient for salvation (indeed, that was one of their major differences with the magisterial Protestants). They require faith, after which a believer’s baptism becomes a necessary passage before membership in Christ’s Church. Baptists actually differ on whether it is possible to achieve salvation without baptism, but certainly reject McCain’s apparent idea that it’s optional if you want to be a Baptist in any meaningful sense of the term.
Goodness, I’m not sure where you come by the idea that Baptists believe that “full immersion baptism is indeed the sine qua non for salvation”. For instance, if you look at the Southern Baptist Convention’s website (the denomination in question):
http://www.sbc.net/bfm/bfm2000.asp
The section about Salvation doesn’t mention baptism and the section on Baptism doesn’t mention salvation!
Baptism is one of two “ordinances” (the other being communion aka The Lord’s Supper) that are symbolic and memorial acts.
Paulak:
As a Christian, I certainly agree with you that none of us are equipped to evaluate John McCain’s spiritual condition. But the fact remains that McCain has chosen, without duress so far as we know, to identify himself with a particular faith community in which full immersion baptism is indeed the sine qua non for salvation. And he can’t have it both ways, being credited in a heavily Baptist constituency for solidarity with their community without fulfilling its most basic tenets.
And BTW, I didn’t have to do any research on this subject; I was raised as a Southern Baptist, and am now an Episcopalian. I take both denominations seriously; John McCain apparently doesn’t. And that’s his problem.
You appear to have done your research concerning baptism, but have left out some pertinent information. First, whether or not John McCain or any believer, is baptised by immersion, is a totally personal act. Salvation is not dependent on full immersion, although some churches would argue the point. God’s grace is all that is necessary for salvation and lack of immersion will not keep a person from an eternity in Heaven. That being said, because Christ himself was fully baptized in the Jordan River, and did so in front of a crowd, it is the practice for believers to follow giving their life to the Lord by being baptized.
Secondly, John McCain’s beliefs are between him and God and none of can rightly know his heart or his motives. God knows that.