These aren’t the happiest days for Democrats, but the impact of so much wild lawlessness by Trump 2.0 should be offset a bit by indications the 47th president and his minions may be a bit over their skis, as I discussed at New York:
During the first month of his second term, Donald Trump’s popularity started out mildly positive but has slowly eroded, according to the FiveThirtyEight averages. As of January 24, his job-approval ratio was 49.7 percent positive and 41.5 percent negative. As of Thursday, it’s 48.7 percent positive and 46.2 percent negative, which means his net approval has slipped from 8.2 percent to 2.5 percent. The very latest surveys show a negative trend, as the Washington Post noted:
“Trump’s approval ratings this week in polls — including the Post-Ipsos poll and others from Reuters, Quinnipiac University, CNN and Gallup — have ranged from 44 to 47 percent. In all of them, more disapprove than approve of him.
“That’s a reversal from the vast majority of previous polls, which showed Trump in net-positive territory.”
Given all the controversy his actions have aroused, that may not be surprising. But he has some vulnerabilities behind the top-line numbers, mostly involving ideas he hasn’t fully implemented yet.
His proposals tend to be popular at a high level of generality but much less popular in some key specifics. For example, a February 9 CBS survey found 54 percent supporting his handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict, but only 14 percent favoring his idea of a U.S. takeover of Gaza. Similarly, a February 18 Washington Post–Ipsos poll found 50 percent of respondents approving of his handling of immigration, but only 41 percent supporting the deployment of local law enforcement for mass deportations, and only 39 percent supporting his push to end to birthright citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants.
Across a broad range of polls, Elon Musk’s assault on the federal bureaucracy is relatively unpopular. A February 19 Quinnipiac survey found 55 percent of registered voters believe Musk has too much power. An Emerson poll gave Musk a 41 percent job-approval rating, and an Economist-YouGov poll gave him a 43 percent favorability rating.
But by far Trump’s greatest vulnerability is over his management of an economy where renewed signs of inflation are evident, and where his policies, once implemented, could make conditions worse. Already, his job-approval ratings on managing the economy are slipping a bit, as a February 19 Reuters-Ipsos poll indicated:
“[T]he share of Americans who think the economy is on the wrong track rose to 53% in the latest poll from 43% in the January 24–26 poll. Public approval of Trump’s economic stewardship fell to 39% from 43% in the prior poll …
“Trump’s rating for the economy is well below the 53% he had in Reuters/Ipsos polling conducted in February 2017, the first full month of his first term as U.S. president.”
And a mid-February Gallup survey found 54 percent of Americans disapproving Trump’s handling of the economy and 53 percent disapproving his handling of foreign trade. More ominous for Trump if the sentiment persists is that negative feelings about current economic conditions are as prominent as they were when they helped lift Trump to the presidency. The WaPo-Ipsos poll noted above found that 73 percent of Americans consider the economy “not so good” or “poor,” with that percentage rising to 76 percent with respect to gasoline and energy prices and 92 percent with respect to food prices.
Republicans and independents will for a time share Trump’s claims that the current economy is still the product of Joe Biden’s policies, but not for more than a few months. A particular controversy to watch is Trump’s tariff wars and their potential impact on consumer prices. As the CBS survey showed, sizable majorities of Americans already oppose new tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and Europe, with tariffs on China being an exception to low levels of support for that key element of Trump’s economic-policy agenda. And the same poll showed 66 percent of respondents agreeing that Trump’s “focus on lowering prices” is “not enough.” He may have forgotten already how he won the 2024 election.
Whoops. My bad. The correct Kerry margin of victory among college students was indeed 55-41 percent, not 62-27 percent (the figure for independents)and will be corrected.
Actually, the results are not as sanguine as first reported. First, the margin for Kerry was actually 55-41, NOT 62-27% — that was the breakdown for independent voters. Second, the 77% turnout figure should be treated skeptically — survey respondents are notorious for saying they voted when they actually did not in order to appear socially desirable. Given the percentage of students in the 18-24 group that actually voted in 2004 (42%) and the percentage of this age group that attends college (two and four year), the turnout among non-college students in this age group would have to be VERY, VERY low for the numbers to add up. The social desirability explanation is likely particularly potent in 2004 given the stakes of the election and the strong outreach initiatives aimed at students. Finally, the education majors favoring Bush (5pts. higher than business majors?!?!) makes no sense and should not be taken seriously. It’s probably the result of sampling error due to the small sample for that subgroup (which is unreported in the news release).
College campuses are certainly fertile ground for Democrats, and we should try hard to appeal to this demographic, but things are not quite as rosy as the post suggests.
I had the same reaction as Josh–education?
Random result?
Teachers colleges clustered in strongly pro-Bush states?
Remnants of “traditional” female career path?
Inadvertent exposure of a hidden piece of the GOP’s plan to establish long-term political control?
(I write that last one reluctantly at the urging of my tinfoil hat–the damn thing’s been more right than wrong the last 4 years)
Josh – Click on the link and read the study. It says Bush got 46 % of B-School students.
Education… voted for Bush? These are the future members of the teachers unions, the people who were screwed over by NCLB: what the heck? This is the *last* group I would have expected to vote for Bush. What about the business majors?