After the Democratic National Committee ran an ad warning that a vote for Jill Stein is a vote for Donald Trump, I assessed her spoiler potential at New York:
In a presidential contest so close that every one of the seven battleground states could go either way, the major-party campaigns are spending some of their enormous resources trying to ensure that minor-party candidates don’t snag critical votes. This ad from the Democratic National Committee is indicative of these fears:
Not only does this ad convey the simple message that “a vote for Jill Stein is a vote for Donald Trump,” but it includes the reminder that according to the Democratic narrative of the 2016 election, the Green Party candidate was the spoiler who gave Trump his winning margins in the key battleground states whereby he upset Hillary Clinton despite losing the national popular vote.
It’s true that Stein won more votes than Trump’s plurality in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2016. So if all of her voters had instead voted for Clinton, Trump would have not become the 45th president and the hinges of political history would have moved in a very different direction. But even though Stein was running distinctly to Clinton’s left and appealing to disgruntled Bernie Sanders primary voters, it’s not 100 percent clear what would have happened had she not run (the Greens, of course, are a regular presence in presidential elections; it’s not as though they were conjured up by Trump in 2016). Some might have actually voted for Trump, and even more might have stayed at home or skipped the presidential ballot line.
The picture is complicated by the presence of an even larger minor-party candidacy in 2016, that of Libertarian Gary Johnson, who won 3 percent of the national presidential vote compared to Stein’s one percent. One academic analysis utilizing exit polls concluded that Clinton would have probably lost even had neither of these minor-party candidates run.
In 2024, Libertarian Chase Oliver is on more state ballots (47) than Stein (39), including all seven battleground states (Stein is on six of them, all but Nevada). Traditionally Libertarians draw a bit more from Republicans than from Democrats (many of them wouldn’t vote for a major-party candidate in any event). But it’s understandably the Greens who worry Democrats, particularly since Stein is counting on defections from Democratic-leaning voters who are unhappy with the Biden-Harris administration’s support for Israel in its war on Gaza. As the Times of Israel reported last month, there are signs Stein’s strategy is working to some extent with Muslim voters:
“A Council on American-Islamic Relations poll released this month showed that in Michigan, home to a large Arab American community, 40 percent of Muslim voters backed the Green Party’s Stein. Republican candidate Donald Trump got 18% with Harris, who is US President Joe Biden’s vice president, trailing at 12%.
“Stein, a Jewish anti-Israel activist, also leads Harris among Muslims in Arizona and Wisconsin, battleground states with sizable Muslim populations where Biden defeated Trump in 2020 by slim margins.”
It’s also worth noting that Stein chose a Muslim (and Black) running mate in California professor Butch Ware.
Any comparisons of her 2024 campaign with her past spoiler role should come with the important observation that non-major-party voting is likely to be much smaller this year than it was in 2016, when fully 5.7 percent of presidential voters opted for someone other than Trump or Clinton. The non-major-party vote dropped to 1.9 percent — a third of the 2016 percentage — in 2020. Earlier this year it looked like independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would push the non-major-party vote even higher than it was eight years ago. But then Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race, which reduced the “double-hater” vote unhappy with both major-party candidates, followed by Kennedy’s withdrawal and endorsement of Trump showed that particular threat evaporating. Despite his efforts to fold his candidacy into Trump’s in the battleground states, Kennedy is still on the ballot in Michigan and Wisconsin, though it’s anybody’s guess how many voters will exercise that zombie option and who will benefit. Another independent candidate, Cornel West, stayed in the race, but he’s struggled with both funding and ballot access; he’s not on the ballot in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, or Pennsylvania, and he’s competing with Stein for left-bent voters unhappy with Kamala Harris. Unsurprisingly, Republican operatives have helped both Stein and West in their ballot-access efforts.
There are some indications that the non-major-party vote will drop even more than it did earlier this year. A new Pew survey shows that only 12 percent of registered voters who express a preference for a minor-party or independent candidate are “extremely motivated to vote,” and only 27 percent of these voters think it “really matters who wins.” These are not people who will be rushing to the polls in a state of excitement.
It’s hard to find a credible recent national poll showing Stein, Oliver, or West with more than one percent of the vote. But a late-September New York Times-Siena poll of Michigan, with its significant Arab-American and Muslim populations, did show Stein with 2 percent of likely voters. In an extremely close race, even small splinter votes can matter, as the experience of 2000 in Florida will eternally remind Democrats. Had that year’s Green Party candidate, Ralph Nader, not appeared on the ballot, it’s pretty likely Al Gore would have been the 43rd president. So anything can happen in what amounts to a presidential jump ball, and you can expect Democrats to continue calling Stein a spoiler while Republicans not-so-quietly wish her well.
Oh! people, Kerry did not lose CO by 5% points. The vote was stolen! It is alled Voter Fraud and American needs to undestand that it happened in Colorado too!
I would not be surprised to see Ken Salazar of Colorado in the VP slot in 2008. A former Attorney General of CO and newly elected senator, Salazar is just what the party needs. He would, of course, help excite the Latino community-particularly the Mexican and Central and South American communities-but his appeal goes far beyond that: A farmer who appeals to the populist leanings of the west, Salazar is far removed from the “liberal” and “elitist” northeastern political environment. He has a gentle ruggedness that appeals to people and he exudes sincerity. He is considered, for the most part, a moderate BUT HAS taken some pretty strong stands on the environment and farmers’ rights. He is pro-choice but strongly opposes PBAs and strongly favors parental notification of minors who wish to terminate a pregnancy. He has stated that though he believes marriage is between a man and a woman, he will vehemently oppose any effort to amend the constitution in this matter. The voters of CO knew all this when they selected him on Nov 2nd.
Whereas Kerry lost CO by 5 points, Salazar beat Coors and won his senate seat by 6 points! Both Kerry and Salazar did very well in the large cities like Boulder and Denver but Salazar did far better than Kerry in the smaller towns. He bested Kerry by an average of 10 points in many of these towns. He still didn’t beat Coors in these small towns but he did better than any Democrat there in recent history. Ken’s brother won his house seat as well. In fact, in a bright spot for Democrats in this election, CO Dems took control of both state legislatures for the first time in 44 years!
Something is happening in Colorado and I think the Coloradan Democrats can teach the Democratic party a thing or two on how to win elections. I think the national party should take a close look at how the Democrats in CO have turned things around and see what can be applied nationally.
I really like the quote in the article:
Colorado Democrats say their success carries a lesson for the national party. “We campaigned on pragmatism,” state Democratic Chairman Christopher Gates said. “We set ourselves up as the problem solvers, while the Republicans were hung up on a bunch of fringe social issues like gay marriage and the Pledge of Allegiance.
“The notion that moral issues won the 2004 election was disproven in Colorado,” Gates continued. “We offered solutions, not ideology, and won almost everything.”
Liberals used to be known as the pragmatists of American politics, the problem solvers. Being known as a liberal bacame a liability in national politics (as both Mr. Bush and Mr. Kerry clearly believed in the debates) when liberalism became an ideology rather than a way of thinking about problems.