March 6: Trump Job Approval Again Underwater, Where It Belongs
As an inveterate poll-watcher, I have been waiting for the moment when Donald Trump’s job approval numbers went underwater, his accustomed position for nearly all of his presidential career. It arrived around the time he made his speech to Congress, as I noted at New York:
Even as he was delivering the most partisan address to Congress maybe ever, Donald Trump’s public support seemed to be regularly eroding. An updated FiveThirtyEight average of Trump’s approval ratings on March 4 (released just as news broke that ABC was shutting down the revered data site) showed him going underwater for the first time since reoccupying the White House, with 47.6 percent approval and 47.9 percent disapproval. That puts Trump back in the same territory of public opinion he occupied during his first term as president, where (per Gallup) he never achieved more than 50 percent job approval, and averaged a mere 41 percent.
Perhaps Trump will get lucky and conditions in the country will improve enough to validate his agenda, but it’s more likely that the same sour public climate that overwhelmed Joe Biden will now afflict his predecessor and successor.
The Reuters/Ipsos survey that pushed Trump’s numbers into negative territory showed a mood very different from the 47th president’s boasts about a new “golden age” for our country:
“Thirty-four percent of Americans say that the country is headed in the right direction, compared to 49% who say it is off on the wrong track. When it comes to several specific issues, Americans are more likely to say things are off on the wrong track than going in the right direction: cost of living (22% right direction / 60% wrong track), the national economy (31% right direction / 51% wrong track), national politics (33% right direction / 50% wrong track), American foreign policy (33% right direction / 49% wrong track), and employment and jobs (33% right direction / 47% wrong track).”
So all the hype about Trump being a popular president who was in the midst of engineering a major realignment of the American electorate is already looking more than a bit hollow. Trump has a solid Republican base of support and a solid Democratic opposition, with independents currently leaning towards the Democratic Party on most issues. Perhaps Trump’s agenda will gain momentum and support, but since he’s not trying to reach out beyond his party’s base at all, he’s going to need a lift from Americans who only voted for him in 2024 as the lesser of evils and may not vote in the 2026 midterms at all.
At present Trump has lost whatever presidential “honeymoon” he initially enjoyed after his return to the White House, and needs to find new converts to return to genuine popularity. He’s not off to a great start.
A discussion group at Yahoo devoted to the issue of election fraud. Amazing number of messages per member, and likely to grow in membership VERY fast
Interested in others with good web referrals on this issue. Interesting how Eschaton and others are steering so much clear of issue, as is spinsanity. I suppose the idea is that anyone who wants to be able to stick around had better avoid this HOT POTATO! Now THERE’s democracy for you!
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/People-v-Ohio-n-Florida/message/3393
Although Manjoo’s argument that, even if the provisionals and the valid discarded ballots are all counted, they alone will probably not be enough to tip Ohio to Kerry, there are other issues in Ohio that this and other election oriented websites ought to be paying closer attention to.
First, there are reports in one county where the Courts insisted the polls remain open after 7:30 and Blackwell had them closed at midnite, people were still left at midnite that had not cast ballots and were given provisionals TO TAKE HOME, which is a totally incorrect procedure. Another situation on a campus with more than 10,000 registered students had ONLY TWO VOTING MACHINES, and waits of up to NINE HOURS. This was also quite planned. There are other instances of issues and of grassroots organizing going on in Ohio now.
THIS DESERVES SERIOUS ATTENTION ESPECIALLY NOW THAT THE GREENS AND LIBERTARIANS ARE DEMANDING A RECOUNT. Do you have expert friends who have kept in touch with the issues OTHER THAN the provisionals and spoiled ballots (totalling 250,000) in Ohio? These issues could be determinative is those 250,000 bring the gap between the two candidates closer to about 20,000. Any recount will have to be presented with these issues before it is completed, so TIMELY INVESTIGATION IS OF THE ESSENCE.