washington, dc

The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Bush’s Disappearing Lead in the CBS News Poll

Yesterday, two days before the election, CBS News reported a 3 point Bush lead among LVs. That survey covered October 28-30. Today, they released survey data covering October 28-31 which show Bush and Kerry now tied among RVs (46-46) and Bush up by only a point (47-46) among LVs. Since these data only differ from the data released yesterday in the inclusion of interviews from Sunday, that suggests Sunday was a strong day for Kerry in this poll–and, perhaps, in others.)
It’s interesting to note that, in 2000, Bush was also leading (by 5 points) in the CBS News poll released 2 days before the election. But that lead also pulled a disappearing act between then and election eve. History may be repeating itself.

6 comments on “Bush’s Disappearing Lead in the CBS News Poll

  1. Bruce Wilder on

    Do any of the polling organizations feel embarassed?
    Following the critical analysis of Gallup on this site, and elsewhere, I read their “final” numbers today with simple astonishment. Apparently, at the last moment, rather than have the election prove their consistent bias, they have fudged, to give the impression, that their poll is predicting a deadheat!
    The Corporate Right-Wing Media should and must be destroyed.

    Reply
  2. Steven Ruggles on

    Bush’s LV support on Sunday in the CBS poll was approximately 42.4%. Wow!
    This is based on the calculation that about 404 respondents on Thursday through Saturday supported bush (49% of 824 respondents) and 561 respondents did so on Thursday through Sunday (47% of 1194 respondents). The number of respondents on Sunday was 370 (1194-824), so Bush’s support was about (561-404)/370=.424, or 42.4%. The calculation is not exact, since it is based on the likely voter model, and could be biased if there was substantial change in the proportion of likely voters on Sunday. I couldn’t find the RV numbers from the earlier period, so had to do the calculation for LVs.
    In any case, the main point is clear: on Sunday, Bush’s support in the CBS poll collapsed.

    Reply
  3. Bill From PA on

    This and other polls seem to indicate the ‘break’ to Kerry. Is that youe take? Will there be more released tomorrow to calm my nerves?

    Reply
  4. RB on

    Very interesting data from Harris Poll about cellphone only voters:
    People with cell phones and no landlines
    One subject of much discussion in this election is that a growing number
    of people have no traditional “landline” phones but have cell phones and
    cannot be reached by traditional telephone surveys.
    Data from our online survey suggest that six percent (6%) of all likely
    voters now fall into this category and that they are voting strongly for John
    Kerry by 56 to 38 percent over President Bush.
    These results suggest that telephone surveys which miss almost everyone
    without landlines will, even if they are accurate, slightly overestimate
    President Bush’s vote and slightly underestimate Senator Kerry’s vote. This
    also explains a small part of the difference between our online and telephone
    surveys.

    Reply

Leave a Reply to Bruce Wilder Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.