By Alan Abramowitz
Democrats can’t win by mobilizing the base alone–they need a candidate and a message with broader, at least slightly broader, appeal. Still, Kerry did not do badly for a Massachusetts liberal. This was no 1984 or even 1988. Only a 3 point margin in the popular vote and with another 150,000 votes in Ohio, Kerry would have won the electoral vote. (That’s kind of a scary thought though. The electoral college could really misfire pretty badly, much worse than in 2000, and in either direction.)
2008 really should be a better chance for Dems to win the White House if we have a strong candidate and a strong message. Here’s why–the time for change factor kicks in for us. And it’s pretty big. Since WW II there have been 7 presidential elections in which a party had held the White House for just one term. The incumbent party’s candidate won 6 out of 7 (only Carter lost) with an average popular vote margin of 11.6 percent. There have been 8 elections in which a party had held the White House for two terms or more. The incumbent party’s candidate won only 2 and lost 6 with an average popular vote margin of -0.9 percent. This pattern goes all the way back to the beginning of the 20th century and the “time for change” factor has a significant effect on the outcomes of presidential elections even when you control for the incumbent president’s popularity and the state of the economy–there is about a 5 point penalty if you’ve held the White House for 8 years or longer. Add that 5 points to Kerry’s 2004 total, and you win easily.
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Editor’s Corner
By Ed Kilgore
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February 12: 2024 Lessons for Democrats That Are Relevant Right Now
I’m on record as suggesting that Democrats not waste too much time on recriminations over 2024 while the wolf of Trump 2.0 is at the door. But there are some lessons relevant to the challenges right before them, and I tried to discuss at few at New York:
The ritualistic “struggle for the soul of the Democratic Party” that ensued after the Republican election victory of 2024 was cut somewhat short by the brutal realities of the real-life consequences of letting Donald Trump regain power with a Republican-controlled Congress and all sorts of ridiculous claims of an absolute mandate to do whatever he wanted. But, in fact, while factional finger-pointing might have been are a self-indulgent luxury an opposition party living under the MAGA gun can’t afford, there are some lessons from the election results that are important to internalize right now. Here are a few.
Mobilizing the Democratic base isn’t enough to stop Trump
For much of the 2024 campaign, a lot of observers believed that the only way Trump could win was if Democrats failed to mobilize their party base, either out of complacency or because key constituencies were disgruntled with Joe Biden (and, to a lesser extent, with Kamala Harris once she became the presidential nominee). An enormous amount of money, time, and effort went into securing maximum turnout among young, Black, and Latino voters on the theory that if fully engaged, they’d win the day. And in the end, these constituencies did turn out reasonably well (a bit less than in 2020, but more than in 2012 or 2016). Trouble was, too many of them voted for Donald Trump.
No, Trump didn’t win Black, Latino, or under-30 voters overall, but his performance in all those groups improved significantly as compared to 2020. Among Black voters (per AP Votecast, the most reputable exit poll), he doubled his percentage of the vote, from 8 percent to 16 percent. Among Latinos, his percentage rose from 35 percent to 43 percent. And among under-30 voters, his share of the vote jumped from 36 percent to 47 percent. Meanwhile, the GOP advantage in the Donkey Party’s ancient working-class constituency continued to rise, even among non-white voters; overall, Trump won 56 percent of non-college-educated voters. The Democratic base fractured more than it faltered. And there were signs (which have persisted into early 2025 polling) that defections have made the GOP the plurality party for the first time in years and one of the few times since the New Deal.
While rebuilding the base (while expanding it) remains a crucial objective for Democrats, just calling it into the streets to defy Trump’s 2025 agenda via a renewed “resistance” isn’t likely to work. Many former and wavering Democrats need to be persuaded to remain in their old party.
Trump really did win the two most essential arguments of the 2024 election, on inflation and immigration
Republicans have massive incentives to pretend that all their messages struck home, giving them an argument that they enjoy a mandate for everything they want to do. But the honest consensus from both sides of the barricade is that demands for change to address inflation and immigration were the critical Trump messages, with doubts about Joe Biden’s capacity to fulfill the office and Kamala Harris’s independence from him exacerbating both.
What we’ve learned in 2025 is that Trump has considerable public backing to do some controversial things on these issues. A 2024 poll from Third Way showed a majority of swing voters agreed that excessive government spending was the principal cause of inflation, a huge blow to Democratic hopes that rising costs could be pinned on corporations, global trends, supply-chain disruptions, or, indeed, the previous Trump administration. But this wasn’t just a campaign issue: Trump took office with some confidence that the public would support serious efforts to reduce federal spending and make government employees accountable. And the fact that (so far) his approval ratings have held up despite the chaotic nature of his efforts to slash federal payrolls is a good indication he has some wind at his back, at least initially.
If that’s true on inflation, it’s even truer on immigration, where solid majorities in multiple polls support (in theory, at least) the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants. If the administration was smart enough to limit its deportation campaign to those convicted of violent crimes, it would have overwhelming public support. But Democrats should fully accept they didn’t just lose votes on this issue in 2024: They lost an argument that persists.
That is why it is critical that Democrats point to evidence that Trump’s own agenda (particularly his tariff policies) will revive inflation that had largely been tamed by the end of the Biden administration, while focusing their immigration messaging on vast overreach, inhumane excesses, and ethnic profiling of Latinos by Team Trump in its efforts to deport immigrants.
Swing voters are not moved by constitutional or “threat to democracy” arguments
Joe Biden in his 2024 presidential campaign (and, to a slightly lesser extent, Kamala Harris as his successor) put considerable stock in playing on public concerns about the threat to democracy posed by Trump as evidenced by his conduct on January 6, 2021, and his lawless behavior generally. While these arguments found traction among voters already in his corner, there’s little evidence they mattered much at all to the voters who decided the election in Trump’s favor. Indeed, a considerable percentage of voters worried about a broken political system viewed Trump as a potential reformer as much as an insurrectionist or autocrat.
At the moment, most office-holding Democrats and (more quietly) many Republicans are aghast at how Trump has gone about pursuing his agenda early in 2025, with a blizzard of executive orders, a federal funding freeze, and a blank check issued to eccentric billionaire Elon Musk to disrupt federal agencies and intimidate federal employees. Again, Trump is drawing on long-standing public hostility toward the federal government and to the size and cost of government as a spur to inflation and a burden on taxpayers. Fighting him with alarms about his violation of legal and constitutional limitations on presidential power is unlikely to work with an electorate unmoved by Trump’s earlier scofflaw attitude. Voters must be convinced in very concrete terms that what he is doing will affect their own lives negatively. As with tariffs and the immigration policy, Trump’s tendency to overreach should provide plenty of ammunition for building a backlash to his policies.
The desire for change in an unhappy country is deep-seated
In 2024, as in 2016, Trump managed to win because unhappy voters who didn’t particularly like or trust either presidential candidate (or their parties) in the end chose to produce a change in party control of the White House and of Congress. In office, Trump and his allies will try to perpetuate as long as they can the illusion that they are still fighting for “change” against powerful interests aligned with the Democratic Party, even though it’s Republicans who control the executive and legislative branches of the federal government and also dominate the U.S. Supreme Court. The idea that Team Trump is a brave band of insurgents speaking truth to power is undermined very specifically by the fact that its chief disrupter, Musk, is the richest man in the world and the first among equals of a large band of plutocrats surrounding the president.
As the New York Times’ Nate Cohn observed during the transition to the second Trump administration, many of the same anti-incumbent tendencies that put a thumb on the scale for the GOP in 2024 will now work for the opposition:
“The president’s party has retained the White House only once since 2004, mostly because voters have been unsatisfied with the state of the country for the last 20 years. No president has sustained high approval ratings since [George W.] Bush, in the wake of Sept. 11 …
“Looking even further back, the president’s party has won only 40 percent of presidential elections from 1968 to today. With that record, perhaps it’s the winning party that really faces the toughest question post-election: How do you build public support during an era of relatively slow growth, low trust in government and low satisfaction with the state of the country?”
Based on his conduct since returning to the White House and his well-known narcissism, it’s not all that clear that the 47th president even cares about building public support as he ends his political career. That may give him the freedom of the true lame duck, but it also means Democrats can batten on his broken promises and the disappointments they will breed. The 2028 presidential candidate who may be in real trouble is the Republican who succeeds the 2024 winner.
First off, as a devoted fan of both the book and this website, I agree with Max.
Ruy and Alan, would you pleassssssssse critic what was being said by you two the weeks and days before the election. It is time for some honesty and evaluation! Before I hear anymore positive pie in the sky stuff we need to look seriously at went wrong with your analysis and then what went wrong in this election.
So Ruy and Alan
Respond to the following which you preached:
The incumbant 50% rule
The undecidededs will breck for the challenger.
The last polling # for a President, is the highest that he will recieve.
Gallup’s polling techniques are way off.
Republican ID could not possibly have increased 5 to 10%
Large turnout equals Democratic win.
I and several of your fans needs some answers to these questions, or you loose credibility!
Give it a shot!
Bill Richardson as VP(not Pres) is the key to immediate success in ’08. We got something like 55 percent of the Hispanic vote, but we can do much better, and quickly with Richardson. Florida and AZ, would be great places to pick up the hispanic vote, probably enough to make the difference. 2008 will see McCain or Jeb, probably Jeb as the opponent Richardson as a candidate only makes sense if they don’t team up(I assume Jeb would take FL and McCain AZ). A Jeb-McCain ticket is hard for the dems to counter, Ohio, Missouri, Arkansas, would have to be where the battle would be fought.
Judging for DLC and moderate dem response, as a whole, the party has more losing to do before they give up the republican-lite mantra. At this point, it has to be more a question of pride, I mean how many times can you lose before you realize you need to throwout the playbook? These DLC and middle road Dems not only have made understandable errors thinking we should go centrist, but they’ve also refused to admit mistakes and show any ability to change tactics…
One last note, if we have to duke it out within our party to change leadership, let’s do it now.
Alan,
As I noted in an earlier comment, before we can start immersing in your hopeful analysis of why 2008 looks good, we need a fair explanation from you of why our optimistic interpretation of the polling data was so wrong. This is important.
No offense.. but this sounds suspiciously similar to “the incumbent rule.” I know Ruy, Prof. Abramowitz and others have their little poll-watching demographic niche in all of this.. but could we get a clue here??
Is this how we lead.. by looking at polls and gauging people’s values from surveys?? By looking at past history and divining averages?? Trends change, countries change. There’s nothing hard and fast here as we’ve seen of late. There’s reason for optimism.. but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
I enjoyed Ruy’s co-written piece in The New Republic today. He wrote that the Democrats need someone who “can talk to both PhDs and tractor-trailer drivers,” and that demography is on the Democrats’ side in Virginia. It seems like there’s an obvious messenger who fits this bill: Mark Warner, Virginia’s Governor. I’ve started a blog touting Warner here:
http://warner2008.blogspot.com
The race Democrats can learn the most from is not the presidency, but the Kentucky senate race. This was a race the conventional wisdom said the Dems had no chance of picking up, and they came within a point of winning. How? Why? Because the Republican incumbent was painted as crazy. Think about it. Democratic candidates in Alaska, Oklahoma, Florida, Louisiana, etc. thought they could win on “the issues.” Sorry, but no. Issues don’t matter and these candidates went down in flames. Mud and smears stick better than rational debate. The Republicans have known this for years. Wake up Dems!
The key blurb from DLC What Happened? …
http://www.ndol.org/ndol_ci.cfm?kaid=131&subid=192&contentid=253002
“They add up to the urgent need for a party strategy and message that’s strategic, not tactical; that conveys a comprehensive message, not just targeted appeals to narrow constituencies; that’s national, not regional…”
The Dems need to undergo a major ‘shape shifting’ effort to build a populist progressive party on a national level that can engage more of America and better challenge the Bush Republican Party of Theocrats. To do this they need to covert a a few moderate Senate or House Republicans who believe The Republican Party has come loose of its moorings. This would be in addition to Lincoln Chafee (R-RI ) which is a strong possibility.
Then the DNC/DLC should combine to form a co-chair position i.e. have an “outside game” with converted moderate Republican and an “inside game” with Howard Dean who is the best person to transform existing Dem party to a more progressive one.
This would likely produce some significant wins in 2006 that could followed up with winning back control of all branches in 2008.
It’s time for a bold and aggressive move or I’m afraid the Dems will fall further behind in ensuing elections.
In 2008 who would we even field that would beat the McCain/Gulliani ticket? They will be extremely difficult. (assuming they are the ticket) All the talk about historical trends I think all goes out the window cause I don’t buy it anymore.
So again I ask, George Bush won the election with all this anti-Bush sentiment out there (Iraq, Economy, Michael Moore, etc.) and he still won, he would’ve won in a landslide if it not for those anti-Bush issues. The 2008 GOP ticket will be even tougher to beat.
I don’t think Hillary will win, she has NO shot at winning the south or the heartland. Obama will be great but I think 2008 is a little early for him.
I can’t see Kerry running again in 2008 and if he does, I can’t see him winning. Unless there’s a new candidate that leaves the logical choice to be John Edwards for 2008 as our best hope. He has the best chance of picking up some states in the South, Midwest, any maybe Iowa, Missouri, etc.
The election was lost because our side expected the vote to be based on logic and reality. It wasn’t; they knew how to tap into emotion and fear but we didn’t. Time to realize that choosing a candidate is like choosing soap and get better at packaging our brand. To quote Bertrand Russell “Many people would sooner die than think. And they do.”
The Redskins lost and Nickelodeon viewers picked Kerry. Historical hocus-pocus similar your statistics. Democrats need to get their noses out of their Excel charts and start smelling the coffee!
If this election has taught us nothing else, it is that past indicators probably no longer apply. Relying on “patterns [that go] all the way back to the beginning of the 20th century” won’t get it done. We need to restate our principles and rethink our message; relying on polling histories is a recipe for failure.
While we should not forget that the Dems have won the popular vote three of the last four cycles, they have done very well in the Electoral College in the two losses. Depending on how IA and NM shake out, Bush will have won two elections with the LOWEST number of electoral votes (271 in 2000, 274 or a few more in 2004) since Wilson in 1916 (277) or McKinley in 1896 (271), back in the days there were fewer EVs anyway. The margins for his two wins were each razor-thin by historical standards. Don’t fall for the “broad, nationwide victory” and “mandate” garbage. There is good news: one more state can tilt the White House blue.
That doesn’t make the loss sting any less, but looking ahead, it means the Dems don’t need a complete overhaul. We need a very targeted strategy to hold the base and gain a few incremental votes in the right places.
Meanwhile, it is critical the Dems pickup seats in 2006. A 10-seat difference in the Senate and a 31-seat difference (w/3 undecided) in the House is too much to make up in one cycle. But with gains in the midterms, the Dems may be able to win back at least one house in ’08.
It seems to me that Karl Rove has really laid a lot of “what usually happens in this/that type of election” rules to waste. I think he and Ralph Reed have done a great job of changing the base line American electorate.
I think time is on our side in the sense that problems Bush promised he would deal with (the budget deficit, Iraq, the spread of nuclear weapons) are not going to be getting better with time. And I’m afraid they may grow to a point where 59 million Americans can’t ignore them anymore.
Forgive me if I’m not too receptive to this sunny outlook right now. I just got through believing it throughout the past few months, and after the shock of the election, both in the WH and Congress, it’s too soon to be delivering the same happy talk about 2008. We need some time for reflection, and a solid working strategy to deal with the impending conservative legislative onslaught. BTW, as bad as the Kerry loss is to me, it’s the Senate losses that really upset me. They were our safety valve, and that protection (filibuster) is virtually gone.
I think we need to count all of the absentee ballots before we concede that Bush even won a majority of the popular vote. I’ve heard that there were 5 million absentees in California, and a million in Florida, so nationwide there are probably more than enough to swing the popular vote, even though there aren’t enough in any one state to swing the electoral.
Yeh right, just keep on thimking Ruy, keep on thimking.
I disagree with the contention that the Dems did not have a message. The message got burried by non-issues. A big part of the problems seems to be that the press corp does not like our candidates. They were openly hostile to Gore and it was no secret that they did not like Kerry. Can we buy them off or hire someone to keep them entertained so they don’t dump on our candidate next time? Maybe if we are more creative about presenting our message the press will pick up on it and not be so hostile.
WHEN ARE THE DLC Democrats going to stop spinning the polls and start facing up to how the ignoring of the flipflop spin and of the distortions in Matt Bai’s article that formed the basis of the last three weeks of the Republican press and political campaign — both of which I have detailed at length many times — point to the throwing (and not for the first time) of the election. When everyone is too busy in the media justifying the lying instead of standing up to it and pointing it out to the mass public, there’s no way victory is possible. You can’t let a flimsy spin like the flipflop issue (as devasted by, eg, Jonathan Chait in the Oct 18 New Republic ‘The Invention of Flipflop’ solidify for five months into a national cliche and expect to win. The public felt by a strong majority that the country was going in the wrong direction. There was Clarke on tape pointing out in Fahrenheit 9/11 that Bush on 9/12 was ONLY interested in Iraq and didn’t even ask about Al Qaeda and the Democrats shied away from using it. They should have had this election in the bag. They didn’t just blow it, they threw it — “reporting for duty” is one thing but duty to the Constitution and not merely to the powers that pee really needs to be primary. This is more important than whether the Demcrats should move “right” or “left” or whatever. It is the ignored elephant in the room — the justifying of the lying.
Matt Bai put out a picture of Kerry on the war on terror tailored to match the Bush characterization of him, even though it was Kerry who proposed increasing the special forces and being much more aggressive about going after Al Qaeda. You can’t expect that the public is supposed to overcome the campaign AND THE MAINSTREAM AND LIBERAL MEDIA rolling over on issues like the flipflop spin and the Bai distortion, echoed in daily columns for the past several weeks. THIS IS THE IGNORED ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM. Everything else is just beating around the Bush. (I could similarly discuss the 2000 election and the 1988 election, as well as the more complex but nevertheless clear strategy of Clinton in 1993-1994) But all this stuff about “winning strategy” is meaningless as long as these issues are evaded, which they continue to be.
Hi Ruy and All
The “time for a change” factor does give *some* room for hope, but in the meantime Bush is certain to continue the Republican mission of repealling the New Deal. The 45 Democrats we have in the Senate have *got* to act like an opposition party and obstruct their heads off–fillibuster radical judges, fillibuster right wing tax “reform”, fillibuster Social Security privatization. Bush can do a lot more damage in the next four years and now is not the time to cooperate with our nation’s demise. For the future we have to cultivate candidates who can speak the language of the working class and of socially conservative folks, but in the mean time we have to stand up or the gains our nation made when it was the Republican party that carried the “elitist” label.
keith
This isn’t a plan, this is feel-good fluff. There is no reason to think Democrats will able to take the Presidency in 2008, given the another moderate approach. Again, people are suffering from two misconceptions, the first being that Clinton was a big success because he was moderate, the second is thinking there isn’t anything fundamentally wrong with the party. Clinton won as a moderate because of Perot. Second, take a look around, we aren’t winning. It wasn’t just Kerry, it’s the entire party that is to blame.
Yes we need think tanks of our own. Yes we need a serious answer to the Federalist Society. Yes we need a need focus on workers, wages and reform. Yes we need liberal tv funded(fstv) along with Air America Radio. Yes, we have to package the Democrat message as one of benefits to the voter.
There are now 100,000 Iraqis dead thanks to our party’s incompetence in 2000, more are to follow. Sit back and go moderate? NO. Let me make this more clear, if the Party doesn’t change in a major way, you’re going to see a major defection to the Greens. We aren’t winning as a party, so why should the liberal base stick with a party that’s soldout? Why not lose with the Greens and at least stand for something? Feingold, Kucinich and the Progressive Caucus are the future. Obama-Richardson 2008! The hispanic vote would switch, Florida to Dem, possibly AZ too.
It’s not issues, it’s candidates.
We put up an emotional stiff this time, same as last.
I like and respect John Kerry. In a time less consumed by superficiality, he’d be a great presidential candidate. He speaks like a nice young man who went to finishing school, and he retains those boarding school manners.
I also like and respect Al Gore, but he looks like he forgot to take the coathanger out of his jacket.
Neither guy can tell a joke, and if you can’t tell a joke, you’ll never get elected president in this world any more.
Look at Elvis.
Bill Clinton is the Mack Daddy. It’s not an issue. It’s HIM.
We need to forget ideology and think MESSENGER. The messenger IS the message. I don’t know who it is, but I can tell you who it isn’t. It isn’t Hillary. She’s a terrible speaker, just awful.
I’ll offer two names of guys who can sell on TV in today’s world.
Joe Biden and Bob Kerrey.
Yes … and an incumbent always loses the undecideds … and an incumbent never gets more than his approval rating … and LV polls mean nothing in a big turnout year. Ruy/Alan, you guys are great analysts and observers and your optimism is inspiring. But after the other night, I’ll never believe a “rule” ever again. There are simply too many bigots out there susceptible to GOP appeals, both coded and overt. I hope you are right, but I’m snakebitten. And disgusted.
Still he did better than Clinton in 92 ( a lot), so dont shoot on the pianist.
We need to get rid of the DLC consultants and we will win. They have impaired this campaign and now are beginning to shoot the messager.
In fact Kerry got more votes that Clinton ever did, and did barely less than Clinton did in 96 %wise.
But his campaign was impaired by the handwringing of the Democrats. We will never win like that.
Only Carter lost? What about Daddy Bush?
With all due respect, I’m a bit wary of any argument based on historical trends. Here’s why: during the run-up to this election, we heard many times that an incumbent with approval ratings below 50 percent was in serious trouble, coupled with the fact that an incumbent stuck in the mid- to upper-40s in polls was as good as gone. No such luck.
This, of course, was the most serious misfire of historical analysis, falling by the wayside along with the Redskins win-loss record and other dubious tools of prognostication, including claims that the taller candidate always wins, and the one with the most syllables in his name always wins, and so on.
In any case, you’re right about the need for a strong candidate and broader appeal. The talent pool looks a little thin right now with so much Republican dominance at every level of government.
It seems clear that the GOP won by mobilizing their base and getting a lot of their people to the polls. But this can work in reverse too. There are fissures within the Republican party, barely perceptible to the public at large. A lot of conservatives, for instance, are unhappy about the administration’s fiscal policies, though they still voted for Bush. But over time their disaffection will grow and they may stay away from the polls. Likewise, not everyone within the party shares the far right’s views on abortion, gay rights, etc. These are controversial positions, which is why the Republicans went out of their way to avoid these subjects at their convention. But the social extremists are hungry for results now and they are going to push Bush to do something that may backfire politically. I wish the Democrats could find a way to exploit these tensions, to force the Republicans to put up or shut up. I mean, watching Giuliani get cheered at the Republican convention, I couldn’t help but wonder how that crowd would respond when they see all those pictures of him marching in the Greenwich Village gay pride parade when he was mayor.
If we depend on that analysis, we will lose for sure. 2008 will be even harder to win than 2004. There will probably be another war, driving patriotism and thus support for the president’s chosen successor. Iraq will likely be going much better than it is now. Repulicans will start the next war without the silly rumsfeldian idea of cutting troop strength in wartime and probably will reverse their policy of cutting military pay and benefits. The economy will get better because it doesn’t often stay this bad for eight straight years even with bad policy from the congress.
And the next nominee from the Rs will be better than this one. It may be McCain or Jeb or Bill Frist, but it will be somebody even more attractive to the center than W.
And Republicans will be secretive and sneak their policies into force without taking the consequences at the ballot box now that there is no threat of congressional or judicial oversight.
Our nominees, on the other hand, look not only bad but worse than Kerry. Hillary is a guaranteed loser and will have coattails losing a lot more seats in congress, too. Edwards didn’t even move the results in his home state by even one percent and will be out of office four years. Wes Clark might be plausible, but he still isn’t much of a politician. Maybe he can run for governor of AR and try for president in 2012. Napolitano and Richardson couldn’t deliver their own states to Kerry but one of them might be the best hope we have. As for Dean, well, maybe we should have tried it his way in 2004 but his time to run has come and gone and his kind of Democrat won’t likely be any kind of force in 2008.