March 6: Trump Job Approval Again Underwater, Where It Belongs
As an inveterate poll-watcher, I have been waiting for the moment when Donald Trump’s job approval numbers went underwater, his accustomed position for nearly all of his presidential career. It arrived around the time he made his speech to Congress, as I noted at New York:
Even as he was delivering the most partisan address to Congress maybe ever, Donald Trump’s public support seemed to be regularly eroding. An updated FiveThirtyEight average of Trump’s approval ratings on March 4 (released just as news broke that ABC was shutting down the revered data site) showed him going underwater for the first time since reoccupying the White House, with 47.6 percent approval and 47.9 percent disapproval. That puts Trump back in the same territory of public opinion he occupied during his first term as president, where (per Gallup) he never achieved more than 50 percent job approval, and averaged a mere 41 percent.
Perhaps Trump will get lucky and conditions in the country will improve enough to validate his agenda, but it’s more likely that the same sour public climate that overwhelmed Joe Biden will now afflict his predecessor and successor.
The Reuters/Ipsos survey that pushed Trump’s numbers into negative territory showed a mood very different from the 47th president’s boasts about a new “golden age” for our country:
“Thirty-four percent of Americans say that the country is headed in the right direction, compared to 49% who say it is off on the wrong track. When it comes to several specific issues, Americans are more likely to say things are off on the wrong track than going in the right direction: cost of living (22% right direction / 60% wrong track), the national economy (31% right direction / 51% wrong track), national politics (33% right direction / 50% wrong track), American foreign policy (33% right direction / 49% wrong track), and employment and jobs (33% right direction / 47% wrong track).”
So all the hype about Trump being a popular president who was in the midst of engineering a major realignment of the American electorate is already looking more than a bit hollow. Trump has a solid Republican base of support and a solid Democratic opposition, with independents currently leaning towards the Democratic Party on most issues. Perhaps Trump’s agenda will gain momentum and support, but since he’s not trying to reach out beyond his party’s base at all, he’s going to need a lift from Americans who only voted for him in 2024 as the lesser of evils and may not vote in the 2026 midterms at all.
At present Trump has lost whatever presidential “honeymoon” he initially enjoyed after his return to the White House, and needs to find new converts to return to genuine popularity. He’s not off to a great start.
To Editor:
There’s a lot of talk of the “incumbent rule”, so I created a little tool that adjusts poll numbers using this rule. (you can adjust the sway rate). It helps me determine if Kerry is in range given this “rule”
http://www.strafaci.com/poll.html
Also, people feel these polls typically leave out a lot of key groups (i.e. cell phone users, college students, etc). So if Kerry is behind, the tool will determine how many of these new voters are needed to give Kerry the win (the rate at which they vote is adjustable).
If you think this is useful, feel free to use this html. It’s simple and is one page long. I can modify it if you have some feedback as well.
http://www.strafaci.com/poll.html
Nader is off the ballot in Oregon, too.
Bush is polling 46-47% in all these battlegrounds. If these numbers are true and the incumbent rule holds, Bush is toast.
But note that Zogby and Rasmussen have said that late deciders are going for Bush, contrary to the incumbent rule and apparently contrary to the numbers we are seeing. I don’t buy this “coming home to Bush” theory for a second, and the sample sizes for this subgroup of late deciders is very small (e.g. large margin of error). Plus all the national polls (and some tracking polls) are showing late movement to Kerry.
Six more days.
Its our race to lose! Bush’s prevarications are starting to catch up to him. I have been reading the probabilistic polling sites and it clearly is trending to Kerry. GOTV!
In Nicollet County MN they have sent out over 900 absentee ballots. That is over 10% of the registered voter base. I am going to go out on a limb and predict that MN will have over 80% turnout this cycle.