March 6: Trump Job Approval Again Underwater, Where It Belongs
As an inveterate poll-watcher, I have been waiting for the moment when Donald Trump’s job approval numbers went underwater, his accustomed position for nearly all of his presidential career. It arrived around the time he made his speech to Congress, as I noted at New York:
Even as he was delivering the most partisan address to Congress maybe ever, Donald Trump’s public support seemed to be regularly eroding. An updated FiveThirtyEight average of Trump’s approval ratings on March 4 (released just as news broke that ABC was shutting down the revered data site) showed him going underwater for the first time since reoccupying the White House, with 47.6 percent approval and 47.9 percent disapproval. That puts Trump back in the same territory of public opinion he occupied during his first term as president, where (per Gallup) he never achieved more than 50 percent job approval, and averaged a mere 41 percent.
Perhaps Trump will get lucky and conditions in the country will improve enough to validate his agenda, but it’s more likely that the same sour public climate that overwhelmed Joe Biden will now afflict his predecessor and successor.
The Reuters/Ipsos survey that pushed Trump’s numbers into negative territory showed a mood very different from the 47th president’s boasts about a new “golden age” for our country:
“Thirty-four percent of Americans say that the country is headed in the right direction, compared to 49% who say it is off on the wrong track. When it comes to several specific issues, Americans are more likely to say things are off on the wrong track than going in the right direction: cost of living (22% right direction / 60% wrong track), the national economy (31% right direction / 51% wrong track), national politics (33% right direction / 50% wrong track), American foreign policy (33% right direction / 49% wrong track), and employment and jobs (33% right direction / 47% wrong track).”
So all the hype about Trump being a popular president who was in the midst of engineering a major realignment of the American electorate is already looking more than a bit hollow. Trump has a solid Republican base of support and a solid Democratic opposition, with independents currently leaning towards the Democratic Party on most issues. Perhaps Trump’s agenda will gain momentum and support, but since he’s not trying to reach out beyond his party’s base at all, he’s going to need a lift from Americans who only voted for him in 2024 as the lesser of evils and may not vote in the 2026 midterms at all.
At present Trump has lost whatever presidential “honeymoon” he initially enjoyed after his return to the White House, and needs to find new converts to return to genuine popularity. He’s not off to a great start.
Now I assume that the “New York Times Regional Newspapers” poll is different than the much-discussed-earlier-this-week but never published CBS/NY Times poll. That number among independents is very, very encouraging and is in direct contrast to the findings of the LA Times poll (which, as Steve Soto of the Left Coaster demonstrated, “Galluped” its results — i.e. overweighted Republicans within its sample). Add to this the poll of Miami-Dade showing Kerry doing even better than Gore and things are looking very good down there.
I don’t know whether there has been much discussion of the nonsense from Fox News Opinion Dynamics this election season. But check out their latest poll for marginals by party ID. There is little difference in the loyalty of respective partisans for their candidate. Independents split 44-43 for Bush. And then they claim a 50-45 lead for Bush??
Hmm! These results could only have come from a LV sample which favored Republicans by 4%. Substitute the partisan breakdown of the 2000 Election (which may well be kind to the GOP) and you’ve got Kerry winning by 49-46.
Maybe we ought to say it this way: The Marginals of Fox News Opinion Dynamics shows Kerry with a 3 point lead!
As for Florida, it promises be Kerry by 1.5 points and possibly a bit more.