July 28: Some Basic Realities For Democrats on Voting Rights
Watching an intra-Democratic argument on voting rights strategy intensify in Washington, I offered some advice to both sides at New York:
There has been an underlying disagreement within the mostly Democratic coalition favoring voting rights that was nicely captured in this New York Times report on Friday:
“A quiet divide between President Biden and the leaders of the voting rights movement burst into the open on Thursday, as 150 organizations urged him to use his political mettle to push for two expansive federal voting rights bills that would combat a Republican wave of balloting restrictions … In private calls with voting rights groups and civil rights leaders, White House officials and close allies of the president have expressed confidence that it is possible to ‘out-organize voter suppression,’ according to multiple people familiar with the conversations.”
Both sides in this argument are partly wrong. Those who expect Joe Biden to force the For the People Act or the John Lewis Voting Rights Act through the Senate via some major revision in the ability to filibuster are probably expecting the impossible. Yes, perhaps if Biden personally and insistently and abrasively lobbied Arizona’s Kyrsten Sinema to abandon her very consistent defense of the filibuster, up to and including encouragement of a primary challenge to her when she is up for reelection in 2024, she might decide her current and very insistent independent-maverick “branding” isn’t going to keep working for her. But Joe Manchin? He would be thrilled to get attacked by a Democratic president or Democratic advocacy groups for insisting that he won’t support voting-rights measures unless at least some Republicans support them. His state is so very red that the threat of a primary challenge to the sole remaining successful West Virginia Democrat is a laugher.
Short of a nuclear attack on West Virginia, it’s hard to identify anything Biden might do to Manchin that wouldn’t run a high risk of backfiring. And he does need Manchin on the reconciliation bills Democrats are using to get around the filibuster to enact Biden’s social and economic agenda. It’s just too bad voting-rights bills don’t qualify for reconciliation.
Yes, it is intensely frustrating that Biden cannot bring himself to come out forthrightly for filibuster reform, but it probably doesn’t matter since it is not happening unless the Democratic Senate Conference gets bigger, making senators like Manchin and Sinema irrelevant on the subject. So at some point voting-rights advocates need to focus on that goal.
At the same time, White House claims that Democrats can “out-organize voter suppression” are partially wrong as well. Yes, restrictive provisions like voter-ID requirements, limits on voting by mail, and even voter-roll purges can be countered and perhaps overcome by intensive efforts to educate and energize the voters Republicans are trying to keep from the polls. But you cannot out-organize a partisan gerrymander, or a law that lets election officials or state legislators overturn the outcome of an election after votes are cast.
Voting-rights advocates will eventually have to play the cards dealt to them by the system as it currently exists. That means refraining from too much anger aimed at Democratic pols who have little choice but to concede defeat on some legislation and concentrate on legislation (i.e., those reconciliation bills with many items vital to the people whose voting rights are also under attack) they can enact with no margin for error in the Senate and little in the House. At the same time, Biden and his staff and Democratic “pragmatists” in Congress should never for a moment be cavalier about the legislative obstacles they face in defending democracy itself. They may have to accept a tactical defeat on voting rights in this Congress. But they should never, ever, give up on making it happen later if not sooner.
Interesting that you leave out YouGov.
Here in the UK, the internet polling by this company is reckoned to be the most reliable of all methods.
What do you think of Mickey Kaus’s analysis concluding undecideds can’t be counted on to break for the challenger?
http://myelectionanalysis.blogspot.com/2004/09/whither-undecideds.html
Hey Ruy… I don’t think it’s “fair” to rely on the right-wing money people represented in such polls as Gallup, CBS/New York Times, NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/Washington Post, Zogby, Time, Newsweek.
They have been proved very biased towards Republican candidates and so I think you play into “their” hands.
Fairness? Fairness? I don’t know what meaning that word might have in the present context.
Your analyses should strive above all for *accuracy*. Fairness is a thing of the distant past.
I’d love to see the same analysis on the swing state polls.
I’m starting to worry that we are setting up here for a major disappointment here regarding the undecided rule. What is the empirical evidence that undecided voters break heavily for the challenger in presidential elections? This link is to a page that purports to show (in quite some detail) what has happened in past presidential elections, and it isn’t good news for Kerry.
http://myelectionanalysis.blogspot.com/2004/09/whither-undecideds.html
I hate to say it but I don’t think we can assume that Kerry is going to get undecided voters by 2:1 on election day.
i understand that the undecideds break 2-1 for the challenger. But even if that is true this time, how can Kerry win with that. For example, lets say the latest polls average out to Bush 47, Kerry 46. That leaves 7% undecideds. That means Kerry gets 2/3 of 7, or 4.666 and bush gets 2.33. That means that kerry is at 50.6 and bush is at 49.333. Is that enough? That is with assumptions. If these numbers are off at all (say bush48 to kerry 46) this changes. And it doesnt compute in the Nader or Badnarik votes.
Can someone please clarify how the undecideds can save Kerry (Lord knows i want him to win)
PS> i know all of this is based on these piece-of-crap inaccurate polls…
Alan:
I understand leaving out the more “partisan” polls. Unfortunately you kept Gallup in ..who I believe you criticized for being heavy on the Rep’s in sampling!! and you eliminated Harris…?? why??
Addtionally, Alan, can you give us the dates these polls were conducted, whether they are all RV’s or Lv’s, or LV’s with leaners.
As you know, a poll is only as good as the time it was taken. I also question the accuracy of “averaging polls” ?
Other wise , Alan ,you do good analytical work on here… keep it up!!
Thanks
Ted Sheedy