A lot of people who weren’t alive to witness the 1968 Democratic Convention in Chicago are wondering if it’s legendary chaos. I evaluated that possibility at New York:
When the Democratic National Committee chose Chicago as the site of the party’s 2024 national convention a year ago, no one knew incumbent presidential nominee Joe Biden would become the target of major antiwar demonstrations. The fateful events of October 7 were nearly six months away, and Biden had yet to formally announce his candidacy for reelection. So there was no reason to anticipate comparisons to the riotous 1968 Democratic Convention, when images of police clashing with anti–Vietnam War protesters in the Windy City were broadcast into millions of homes. Indeed, a year ago, a more likely analog to 2024 might have been the last Democratic convention in Chicago in 1996; that event was an upbeat vehicle for Bill Clinton’s successful reelection campaign.
Instead, thanks to intense controversy over Israel’s lethal operations in Gaza and widespread global protests aimed partly at Israel’s allies and sponsors in Washington, plans are well underway for demonstrations in Chicago during the August 19 to 22 confab. Organizers say they expect as many as 30,000 protesters to gather outside Chicago’s United Center during the convention. As in the past, a key issue is how close the protests get to the actual convention. Obviously, demonstrators want delegates to hear their voices and the media to amplify their message. And police, Chicago officials, and Democratic Party leaders want protests to occur as far away from the convention as possible. How well these divergent interests are met will determine whether there is anything like the kind of clashes that dominated Chicago ’68.
There are, however, some big differences in the context surrounding the two conventions. Here’s why the odds of a 2024 convention showdown rivaling 1968 are actually fairly low.
Horrific as the ongoing events in Gaza undoubtedly are, and with all due consideration of the U.S. role in backing and supplying Israel now and in the past, the Vietnam War was a more viscerally immediate crisis for both the protesters who descended on Chicago that summer and the Americans watching the spectacle on TV. There were over a half-million American troops deployed in Vietnam in 1968, and nearly 300,000 young men were drafted into the Army and Marines that year. Many of the protesters at the convention were protesting their own or family members’ future personal involvement in the war, or an escape overseas beyond the Selective Service System’s reach (an estimated 125,000 Americans fled to Canada during the Vietnam War, and how to deal with them upon repatriation became a major political issue for years).
Even from a purely humanitarian and altruistic point of view, Vietnamese military and civilian casualties ran into the millions during the period of U.S. involvement. It wasn’t common to call what was happening “genocide,” but there’s no question the images emanating from the war (which spilled over catastrophically into Laos and especially Cambodia) were deeply disturbing to the consciences of vast numbers of Americans.
Perhaps a better analogy for the Gaza protests than those of the Vietnam era might be the extensive protests during the late 1970s and 1980s over apartheid in South Africa (a regime that enjoyed explicit and implicit backing from multiple U.S. administrations) and in favor of a freeze in development and deployment of nuclear weapons. These were significant protest movements, but still paled next to the organized opposition to the Vietnam War.
One reason the 1968 Chicago protests created such an indelible image is that the conflict outside on the streets was reflected in conflict inside the convention venue. For one thing, 1968 nominee Hubert Humphrey had not quelled formal opposition to his selection when the convention opened. He never entered or won a single primary. One opponent who did, Eugene McCarthy, was still battling for the nomination in Chicago. Another, Robert F. Kennedy, had been assassinated two months earlier (1972 presidential nominee George McGovern was the caretaker for Kennedy delegates at the 1968 convention). There was a highly emotional platform fight over Vietnam policy during the convention itself; when a “peace plank” was defeated, New York delegates led protesters singing “We Shall Overcome.” Once violence broke out on the streets, it did not pass notice among the delegates, some of whom had been attacked by police trying to enter the hall. At one point, police actually accosted and removed a TV reporter from the convention for some alleged breach in decorum.
By contrast, no matter what is going on outside the United Center, the 2024 Democratic convention is going to be totally wired for Joe Biden, with nearly all the delegates attending pledged to him and chosen by his campaign. Even aside from the lack of formal opposition to Biden, conventions since 1968 have become progressively less spontaneous and more controlled by the nominee and the party that nominee directs (indeed, the chaos in Chicago in 1968 encouraged that trend, along with near-universal use of primaries to award delegates, making conventions vastly less deliberative). While there may be some internal conflict on the platform language related to Gaza, it will very definitely be resolved long before the convention and far away from cameras.
Another significant difference between then and now is that convention delegates and Democratic elected officials generally will enter the convention acutely concerned about giving aid and comfort to the Republican nominee, the much-hated, much-feared Donald Trump. Yes, many Democrats hated and feared Richard Nixon in 1968, but Democrats were just separated by four years from a massive presidential landslide and mostly did not reckon how much Nixon would be able to straddle the Vietnam issue and benefit from Democratic divisions. That’s unlikely to be the case in August of 2024.
Chicago mayor Richard J. Daley was a major figure in the 1968 explosion in his city. He championed and defended his police department’s confrontational tactics during the convention. At one point, when Senator Abraham Ribicoff referred from the podium to “gestapo tactics in the streets of Chicago,” Daley leaped up and shouted at him with cameras trained on his furious face as he clearly repeated an obscene and antisemitic response to the Jewish politician from Connecticut. Beyond his conduct on that occasion, “Boss” Daley was the epitome of the old-school Irish American machine politician and from a different planet culturally than the protesters at the convention.
Current Chicago mayor Brandon Johnson, who was born the year of Daley’s death, is a Black progressive and labor activist who is still fresh from his narrow 2023 mayoral runoff victory over the candidate backed by both the Democratic Establishment and police unions. While he is surely wary of the damage anti-Israel and anti-Biden protests can do to the city’s image if they turn violent, Johnson is not without ties to protesters. He broke a tie in the Chicago City Council to ensure passage of a Gaza cease-fire resolution earlier this year. His negotiating skills will be tested by the maneuvering already underway with protest groups and the Democratic Party, but he’s not going to be the sort of implacable foe the 1968 protesters encountered.
The 1968 Democratic convention was from a bygone era of gavel-to-gavel coverage by the three broadcast-television networks that then dominated the media landscape and the living rooms of the country. When they were being bludgeoned by the Chicago police, protesters began chanting, “The whole world is watching,” which wasn’t much of an exaggeration. Today’s media coverage of major-party political conventions is extremely limited and (like coverage of other events) fragmented. If violence breaks out this time in Chicago, it will get a lot of attention, albeit much of it bent to the optics of the various media outlets covering it. But the sense in 1968 that the whole nation was watching in horror as an unprecedented event rolled out in real time will likely never be recovered.
I think it is hilarious that some of you wannabe trolls are picking on Ron Reagan. He inherited the best of his father in that he can put more than two words together and make sense. And hell, let’s face it, w is an idiot who can’t think or speak. DUH!
Well, the Wall Street Journal gets it right, and CBS falls flat on its face (in multiple ways.) Perhaps it’s time to rethink our assumptions about what media to trust.
Traditionally, I have viewed Gallup as the most authoritative poll, based on tradition and its constant polling on many subjects (not just politics). But after reading about their LV projections, I don’t think I can do that anymore, at least for this election season, unless they change the formula. Guesswork is always unreliable, but the disproportionate overweighting of the GOP vote (or underweighting of the Democratic vote) means that their polls should be viewed as overstating the Republican vote by several points (maybe this explains Kerry’s Gallup non-bounce after the Dem convention.) And if the parties were reversed and Gallup (or anyone else) used an LV sample with considerably more Democrats than the general population, then that result should be discounted too, as much as many of us on here would like to believe otherwise.
LD,
Read the article in the New Zealand newspaper, you’ll see where my criticism originates. As far as Ron Jr., this guy is such a loser that he trades on his good name but dishonors his fathers strongly held befiefs.
Yeah, everyone can form their own opinions but it’s kind of sad to see a teenage rebellion from a guy that’s in his 40’s. My point about his looks, is that he sure didn’t get the MSNBC gig because of any qualifications most TV personalities must have. He has no background in news, he is not handsome in the traditional sense, and he obviously has an axe to grind (which NBC is all too happy to indulge).
Jeez, you fat chicks are so sensitive!
4 More Years!
RUY ROCKS!
I think it is time for everyone to completely ignore BJ. When he has to stoop to criticizing an opinion (Ron Reagan) based on that person’s looks, he obviously has nothing of substance to say. An added benefit of totally ignoring BJ is that it will infuriate him and perhaps drive him away.
Oh bruhrabbit, don’t throw me in that briarpatch!
You’re not far off with the; you get one, we get one analysis. But you’ll be surprised on election day. Coors in Colorado, for example. In an off year, he probalbly loses, but in a Bush landslide, he’s a down ticket winner. You’re going to be a sweating a lot of districts Nov 2nd.
About the Bush/Reagan thing. It’s like Roger Staubach and Troy Aikman for a Cowboys fan. Both great in their own ways and both winners. Different teams and different eras, but the same intangible—leadership.
Other than Chuck Hagel, Luger, and once in a while McCain (can you blame him) Republicans don’t need to be disciplined to the party line. We are all united behind Bush.
4 More Years!
BJ
I don’t know you, but here’s piece of advice. If you are going to make predictions, at least make realistic ones. I am not going to argue the presidential election b/c frankly I think it is pointless given what I have read to expect solid polling in a volatile election with two relatively weak candidates such as the Demo and Rep are fielding this time. I mean honestly do you really think George Bush is a Ronald Reagan. I certainly don’t think Kerry is a Bill Clinton. These two, Reagan in 84 and Clinton in 96 had their presidency in full force at this point in the game. The thing I find funny about leftist and rightist is what my ole govt affairs prof in graduate school used to say- when you listen to your partisan rhetoric, there is not much difference in its outlandishness. In your case, you are seeing landslides where they won’t be happen. Bush make indeed eck out a win, but it wont have any coattails. I mean you got Republicans acting like Dems today, and showing a lack of descpline in attacking their party leader during an election year (if they thought (and they are in a better place than you or I to decide this) that there would be any coattails or repercussions, they wouldn’t have been out there saying Iraq is going to crap in a hand basket). My prediction on the Congressional side is more status quo with not enough votes to do anything (ie, you pick off Daschle, we get Salazar, you pick off the seat in North Carolina we get of all places Oklahoma- I got to believe that even Oklahomans find sterilaztion w/o consent egregious unless they truly aren’t as concerned with their biblical teaching as they say they are). I am sleepy. So good night gracie.
Bel,
Best wishes to you as well.
Poor Ron Jr., god bless him, with that receding chin and Nancy’ worst features. No I don’t agree with him, I pity the child.
Hate won’t carry you guys to victory. I know from your posts that you are invested in Kerry’s success (more like Bush’s defeat) but you’re going to get your heart broke, brother. Three months from now, the conventional wisdom in your party will be that Kerry ran a bad campaign, Kerry didn’t fight back, Kerry was ill-advised.
It’s worse than that, Bel. The GOP will pick up seats in both houses of congress. The big news story will be how long Bush’s coattails were. Kerry will be accorded the same standing as Dukakis. He’ll never speak at the Dem Convention again…Ever. Heck, you guys didn’t really like him before anyway.
Don’t worry Bel, all will be well. Once the world sees that it’s Bush for another term, the press will get off this “everyone hates Bush” kick and start reporting the real deal (oh my, sounds like a slogan).
Someday, you’ll even claim you voted for Bush.
4 More Years!
Tommy Pain.. its for the reasons outlined on your site that I cant quite grip how the media and others can take so much stock in these polls. To me, (I am no analyst) there seems to be so many gaping holes in the entire polling system.
There seem to be so many methods and hence I cannot see how these guys expect to arrive at the same conclusions. Its all airy fairy to me. I discount them all and simply take my cue from people on the ground, people I talk to, crowds at the rallys and the things the candidates are saying (and from the frantic postings of GOPers on this site.. (BJ and crew.. lol..lol)), which is prob all wrong too.
I dont take my cues from either the press or the polls. The only thing that interests me in the polls however, is that the results can influence how the undecideds and the loosely planted souls will vote. So that if the public is really rooting for Kerry but the polls say Bush is way ahead, such polls will and can influence the above mentioned crowd because they are more likely to believe the polls and follow the general opinion as stated in the stats.
This is dangerous and hence I think the plan from here in, should be to call the media and the poll houses to account for the way they are handling their end of the business. Maybe that will work.. I dont know.
Ruy, you are getting recognition you deserve.
If you think the trolls have been here lately, wait until they they get their panties in a bunch over the WSJ mention.
“Blogosphere ghetto”? Aw, c’mon, the place is looking pretty spruced up lately.
BJ… you are way too funny about a serious subject.
I note that you dont seem to like what Ron Reagan says in his NZ mag. but you dont refute what he says about the Bush clan. I suppose you know its all true what Ron says but you prefer to stay with bush because of the qualities which Ron outlines.
So how are you BJ? I hope you are prepared to accept the news in Nov. I know you will be disappointed that bush loses but at least Kerry will have had your vote and thats all that matters.
You and I agree with Ron Reagan and thats why you and I agree that we need a president in the white house who has some measure of integrity.
Best Wishes BJ and may the better man win in Nov.
Its time to hold the media accountable for how it covers this election. The polls are bunk.
http://tommypain.blogspot.com/2004/09/polling-madness.html
Please, forward this along, and get everyone you know to write to every media outlet they frequent and tell them to start treating this election like it is something that’s important.
Nice to see the WSJ (that ultra-leftist screed!)highlighting the problems with Gallup’s (and others)polling methodology. Let’s face it, Gallup has become a joke and is increasingly unable to deal with the realities of tracking a presidential contest in this day and age. I wonder how long it will be before Gallup wakes up and admits it needs to revamp its approach to polling. Ah, its probalby easier for them to stick their head in the sand and continue to trade on their (declining) reputation.
Yeah, Harwood has been kissing up to the Dems all year. I think he’s a graduate of the David Gergon school of “Getting a Job in Television”.
Another alumni of that fine institution is Ron Reagan Jr. He’s written a screed in a New Zealand (New Zealand—what is that about?) paper titled “It’s time we stopped beating about the Bush. The Bush regime is a cabal of liars and fanatics.” Wow, that ought to guarantee Ron a gig at MSNBC for at least another two months.
Hey, I’m not complaining, you guys can have Ron (I don’t have children, I have cats) Reagan. He’s rather an embarressment to us anyway. Tell you what, we’ll throw in Patty for good measure. We’ll take Zell Miller, Ed Koch, and Ron Silver anyday.
Hell, some of you are welcome too.
4 More Years!
Thanks Again Ruy
I am very happy to see that the main stream is taking a cue from this site. I think your analyses are excellent and can be very useful as a comparative tool, if made available to the public by the main stream media.
Cheers
It’s nice to see these important arguments escaping the “ghetto” too, but I think it says as much about the sloth of the professional journalist community as it does about the diligence of the bloggers!