When an underwhelming primary rival to Brian Kemp announced his candidacy I took a look at the Georgia governor’s comeback strategy and wrote it up at New York.
Until March 25, Georgia governor Brian Kemp was looking pretty finished politically. Very publicly and vociferously blamed by Donald Trump for ratifying Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger’s certification of Joe Biden’s victory in Georgia on November 20, Kemp was persona non grata in MAGA country. He had already been periodically in Trump’s doghouse over his handling of the pandemic in his state, and before that, over his rejection of the Boss’s instruction that he appoint Representative Doug Collins to an open U.S. Senate seat. But getting in the way of the 45th president’s attempted election coup was the final straw: Trump has been publicly and privately vowing to take down Kemp in next year’s Republican gubernatorial primary, as recently as the RNC donor retreat in Florida last weekend. During his brief campaign appearance in Georgia before the January Senate runoffs that ended in defeat for his party, Trump even called on Collins to challenge Kemp in 2022, which wasn’t exactly a Georgia GOP talking point. Nor was Trump’s later suggestion that Kemp should resign.
Kemp managed to keep his mouth shut in the face of all these provocations, grimly promising to support Trump in 2024 and generally taking his medicine. But his comeback strategy became apparent when he made a big show of signing Georgia’s highly controversial new election law on March 25. It’s unclear whether he deliberately courted the appearance of racist impropriety, though he did sign the bill under a painting of a plantation and barred a Black Democratic legislator from his office during his remarks on the bill. (State Representative Park Cannon was subsequently manhandled by state troopers who wrestled her out of the Georgia Capitol to be arrested on multiple felony counts.)
As anger over the legislation mounted (echoing the anger over
Kemp’s own voter-suppression measures as Georgia’s secretary of State, the job he insisted on keeping during his narrowly successful 2018 gubernatorial campaign) and major corporations joined the criticism of the law, Kemp was able to adopt a pose that is legal tender for a GOP pol at present: victim of “race card” politics backed by “woke” corporations. As the Associated Press
reported, it was very clear to Georgia Republicans what the man who had
labeled himself a “politically incorrect conservative” in 2018 was up to:
“[T]he sweeping
election law could be one of Kemp’s last hopes to rekindle a bond with Republicans who remain fiercely loyal to Trump and will be a critical force in next year’s GOP primary. The legislation, which Kemp signed into law, could give him an opening to persuade Republicans that he is an outsider, willing to stand up to Democrats, corporate leaders, and sports leagues who have derided the measure as an affront to democracy that is based on false claims and needs to be rewritten.
“’This is an absolute godsend for Brian Kemp,’ said Brian Robinson, a Republican consultant and former top aide to Kemp’s predecessor, Nathan Deal.”
Kemp has eagerly been making the rounds of conservative media outlets to defend the new law, struggling, no doubt, to hide his glee at the liberal criticism it has attracted. The furor is helping him back home where it matters as well, as the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein observes:
“In recent weeks, Kemp has been a mainstay on conservative cable TV shows and enjoyed raucous receptions at grassroots meetings across the state, seemingly dissuading better-known Republican rivals such as former U.S. Rep. Doug Collins, whom Trump once recruited to run.”
Morning Consult reports that Kemp’s job-approval rating among Georgia Republicans rose from 59 percent in mid-March to 74 percent in early April. Nonetheless, a well-known Georgia pol close to Trump has now announced a 2022 primary bid against the governor. But his identity could be a blessing in disguise to the incumbent.
Vernon Jones is a Black former state legislator and county CEO who endorsed Trump’s reelection last year and has more recently switched parties. He got a lot of MAGA attention, particularly after his featured role at the GOP National Convention. He has really taken to his new career in Republican politics, speaking at the notorious January 6 “Stop the Steal” rally in Washington and basking in the affection of the Big Man (“When are you announcing? When are you announcing?” Trump said to Jones at Mar-a-Lago last week).
Jones’s announcement made it clear that he’s the former president’s surrogate.
Jones, however, is a risky proposition as Trump’s instrument of vengeance against Kemp. Aside from the fact that he’s a career Democratic politician from a jurisdiction (the Atlanta inner suburb of Dekalb County) that your average rural Republican wouldn’t visit on a bet, he has always had some issues, as Bluestein explains, calling him “a uniquely polarizing figure in state politics”:
“Jones launched his political career in the early 1990s in the Georgia House before winning the first of two terms as DeKalb County’s chief executive officer in 2000. His stint was marked by controversy …
“[H]is angry outbursts and clashes with other local officials dominated headlines, as did more serious allegations …
“[A] wide-ranging special grand jury report released in 2013, after Jones left office, recommended an investigation against Jones and other DeKalb officials into possible bid-rigging and theft when he was chief executive, painting a picture of a culture of corruption that spanned from his office to workers and contractors in the watershed department.”
Worse yet, Jones was accused of rape in 2005. His successful defense was that the intercourse in question was part of a consensual three-way sexual encounter. This is still not a great look for candidates in the Christian-right- dominated Georgia GOP. And speaking of the Christian right, Jones had a problem with a vote in the legislature against a “fetal heartbeat” abortion ban Kemp had championed in 2019. On the eve of his candidacy, Jones executed a straight-out flip-flop on abortion, stating he now believed zygotes should be protected “from the moment of conception.”
You get the sense that Jones will serve as an irritant to Kemp but not a serious threat unless Trump himself forcefully intervenes in the race (and/or if a more formidable Trump-backed candidate, like Collins, who is reportedly mulling a Senate race, jumps in). And even then, Georgia Republicans will remember that Trump had strongly endorsed Kemp during the last gubernatorial primary. MAGA bravos looking for a pound of flesh may instead focus on Raffensperger, who has drawn an actual member of Congress as his 2022 primary opponent, along with the rival he barely defeated in 2018.
If Kemp does escape, he will likely face a rematch with his nemesis, voting-rights activist Stacey Abrams. And in that contest, all the treasure he has stored up in Republican circles by boasting of his commitment to “election integrity” may earn him a backlash from the voters he and his party have sought to bedevil.
Per Missouri…I haven’t seen tv ads for either candidate in a few days. While the ads were running, they were evenly matched. I have begun to see more Kerry/Edwards signs & bumper stickers. For a time, I thought it was just Bush/Cheney, but the Kerry signs are begining to crop up here & there. I live between rural & suburbs.
Good point Gabby Hayes. I love hanging out in bookstores. After the DNC, the Newsweek Poll comes out – my son and I are high-fiving eachother (JK 8 points ahead one), I go to the bookstore- there’s the latest Newsweek with a big, beautiful cover photo of K&E – New Direction for Cmountry. I just got back from the bookstore tonight – there’s the latest Newsweek with a big, (ugly) cover photo of Bush – trumpeting his march to the WH.
What we are seeing is a concerted effort on the part of several media organs to push Bush.
The post convention contortions to promote only the portions of those polls which show Bush getting a good lead in “likely voters” is a clear attempt to ignore all the polls that show otherwise. Further, the refusal to see the obviously poor methodology cannot be an oversight.
You’d think The Washington Post, NBC News, MSNBC, and Newsweek were all owned by the same people.
Oh, wait. They are. General Electric, top ten defense contractor, multibillion dollars per year.
Bizarroworld – the disparity between polls – between national vote vs battlefields – Zogby, who is usually simpatico described a fairly gloomy outlook on his site along with his latest poll data, reports – some anecdotal – of hordes of new voters registering, probably Dems, but obviously no indication of hopefully positive impact on the election. (sorry for the ungrammatical stream of consciousness)
gail,
I’m about to look more closely at that. It’s a 6% Bush lead in the RV’s. The median of CBS, ABC, Gallup, Fox, and ICR is +4 for Bush, which is what Marshall reported was the Republican and Democrat’s separate estimates post-convention. The 4% is imprecise, but my guess is not a bad estimate. Definitely within reach.
uGH- Just got a Washington Post update in my Email – blaring headline about Bush solidifying lead – yeah it’s a Post/ABC News poll, but still…
What is so bizarre is the huge gap between Bush’s negatives and the positive Bush poll results. So the electorate believes he is leading the country down the wrong track, but hell, they’ll vote for him anyway? Thanks to Tony for a summation of the latest polls. So which do I trust – would love to go with the ones that suit me!
Per Joshua Marshall’s site, the ABC/Washington Post lead will be in the ballpark of the CBS poll, or worse. Dang it.
vote on-
thanks for the correction
i am felling much encouraged.
Here’s confirmation of the Kerry campaign’s perception of the battlegrounds:
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/09/09/strategy.ap/index.html
“Kerry strategist Tad Devine said the campaign had several million dollars in advertising time reserved for Missouri, Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, Louisiana and Arkansas, which he called a sign of commitment to those battlegrounds. But the ads aren’t scheduled to air until October, if then. No money has been given to TV stations for the October buys.”
In addition to the Bush 2000 states of Ohio, Florida, NH, WV, and Nevada, Kerry is spending on the Gore 2000 states of Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Maine, Washington, and Oregon. So…he’s defending 9 and attacking 5. And Ohio and Florida seem to be the key possible pickups.
Devine argues that Kerry is in a better state in Ohio and Florida than Gore was in September 2000. Do we have any info to compare on those two?
If he *does* pick up, say, Ohio and New Hampshire, then Kerry could lose 14 EV’s of Gore states. For instance, Iowa and New Mexico, or any Maine and either Minnesota or Wisconsin. He has to hold Pennsylvania and Michigan….
Gail,
Here’s a quick rundown of what I’ve seen of polls since the twin 11% polls:
Gallup…7% lead for Bush among LV’s, but only 1% among RV’s, Sept. 3-5.
ICR…Kerry up 1% among RV’s, Sept. 1-5
Fox…Bush up 4% among LV’s, with no RV report, Sept. 7-8
CBS…Bush up 7% among RV’s, Sept. 6-8.
Plus a report from Josh Marshall that the two campaigns show Bush up by 4%.
Rasmussen’s tracking shows Bush up by 0.7%.
Zogby showing Kerry with an ECV lead in his last battleground poll.
If you just go with Gallup RV, ICR RV, Fox LV (since they have no RV), and CBS RV, you get an average Bush lead of a smidge under 3%.
And that’s after the Republican convention, the Elephants slinging mud furiously for a long while when the Democrats haven’t responded well. This is going to be close. Kerry should be able to rally in the Gore states. Will he be able to turn Ohio or Florida, or the combination of New Hampshire, Nevada, and West Virginia?
CBS Poll is out – Bush solidly ahead – how to ratioanalize this – need to think something – getting migraine
As a Missourian, I can say that after the Repub convention, I saw a lot of Bush signs go up in yards. However, I’m seeing a lot of Kerry signs as well.
Missouri is deeply divided among its rural and urban regions. I live on the cusp of the rural areas and the suburbs so I get a taste of both. When I got into the suburbs I see a lot of Kerry support (more than I saw for Gore in 2000), but in the rural areas I’m seeing a lot of Bush support.
I don’t think Bush has an 11-point lead here, especially right after Zogby showed them tied just the other day.
I really believe Missouri will boil down to GOTV. Don’t give up on us yet!
Missouri will go Bush. I hate to say it, but Kerry’s message does not resonate there – most citizens are deeply socially conservative and relate to Bush personally and with his social values. There are economic troubles in MIssoui, but unfortunately this election is not about the economy, stupid.
I saw a report (not sure where. The Washington Post?) that Kerry was not targeting Missouri with ads right now. Can anyone confirm? If so, I’d take that as a sign that there might be some more truth to the idea that Bush is surging there.
From the article, the five Bush 2000 states Kerry was targeting were Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, West Virginia, and Nevada. NH and either WV or Nevada flipping would create a tie, going presumably to Bush in the House. If this is so, the strategy would seem to be (a) holding the Gore states; and (b) picking up one of Florida, Ohio, and New Hampshire/WV/Nevada.
If that’s the strategy, I’m wondering if it might not have been helpful to have Graham on as VP.
Oops. The polls started 1-2 days AFTER the conventions.
Still in the afterglow, IMO.
Rremember that ALL of these new state polls were conducted DURING the convention and 1-2 days afterward.
Regarding Missouri, my initial thought was that the combination of the Repub convention and the Anti-Gay measure (passed with about 70% in favor) on the recent ballot there may have fired up the base. But I haven’t looked for any polling data to support that thought.
tim kaastad –you are confused. Ruy has been staunchly against using LVs until much closer to election day. And the links provided give you both LV and RV.
i am a little lost..is this site a pep rally.?
you didn’t report LV’s which according to you months ago was the true measure of the contest.
Missouri is more culturally conservative and rural than the nation as a whole. It’s often referred to as a “bellwether” for the nation, but I think it’s a step or two to the right of the country overall. That said, I’m not sure things have gone THAT far south there; other current surveys have it closer, though with Bush a few points ahead (Zogby has a tie.)
And the Ohio results are, along with Gallup’s national horse race results, a pretty egregious example of the fallacy of the “likely voter screen.”
I’m guessing the Missouri poll is an outlier. The other recent polls aren’t that strong. But there is a high level of southerner influence in the state and the Republican base was envigorated by the convention, so I’m sure that Bush’s support there is stronger than it was. But 11 points? I’m not buying that.
Anyone have any ideas on why things seem to be going south in Missouri?
When we look at events that will affect the tone of the campaign, I think it is hard to overestimate “Rock for Change.” Having Bruce Springsteen out there proselytizing for Kerry will be an Event. It will persuade and mobilize.
From this point forward, the mojo is definitely with us.