Like many Americans, I’ve been watching with fascinated horror the Trump administration’s first big steps towards mass deportation, and wrote about the political underpinnings of the issue at New York:
To those who are worried about the threat to the rule of law represented by the first president to enter the White House as a convicted criminal, the brinkmanship being exhibited by Team Trump over court orders involving an erroneously deported immigrant seems ominous.
The Trump administration has been taunting the judiciary via dilatory tactics and obfuscation in the case of Kilmar Abrego Garcia. This protected-status immigrant from El Salvador, who is married to a U.S. citizen and has three children, was shipped off to a brutal Salvadorian rent-a-prison without due process, based on a faulty identification.
U.S. district court judge Paula Xinis has ordered the administration to find and return Abrego Garcia so that he can receive due process prior to deportation, and a 5-4 majority of the U.S. Supreme Court concurred that the order must be obeyed, albeit with some consideration of the complications of the case. But even though Judiciary Department lawyers have admitted in court that Abrego Garciaâs deportation was the result of an error, the White House has stalled in complying with Xinisâs order. And in a bizarre Oval Office meeting with Salvadoran president (and self-described dictator) Nayib Bukele, Trump and his attorney general suggested it was now Bukeleâs problem. The Salvadoran leader said he would not âsmuggleâ a âterroristâ back into the United States. Right there in front of the cameras, White House policy director and infamous nativist Stephen Miller misstated the Supreme Court decision and kept referring to Abrego Garcia as a terrorist, the disputed attribution at the very center of the legal case. It all seemed like an extended mockery of the rule of law.
The administration is clearly playing rope-a-dope on the entire situation. And while it may ultimately comply with the courts, extract Abrego Garcia from prison, and give him a real hearing, the political question is why Team Trump is dragging this out in the glare of global bad publicity. Is this really the ground on which the 47th president will trigger a much-feared constitutional crisis by openly defying the judicial branch of government, including the Supreme Court that has been so very good to him? Thatâs what a lot of Trump critics believe is happening before our incredulous eyes.
I personally believe the administration will eventually submit to the courts, albeit as minimally as possible. But itâs possible Team Trump thinks the presidentâs foreign-policy powers, which they claim are at stake in such cases, are strong enough that itâs the Supreme Court that will submit to Trumpâs authority to do as he wishes with immigrants.
Politically speaking, this is a fight the administration is eager to take on even if it temporarily loses, because itâs all happening on Trumpâs favored turf at the intersection of the immigration and crime issues. At a time when the president is losing popularity steadily thanks to his economic policies, and particularly his tariff policies, itâs probably a relief to get back to the argument that America is succumbing to an âinvasionâ by criminal immigrants eager to rape, pillage, and eat pets. It seemed to have worked in 2024. Why not in 2025?
Recent polls regularly confirm that of all the controversial things Trump has done in the first 11-plus weeks of his second term, his handling of immigration policy is the most popular. This is true in polls that rate his overall job performance negatively (an April 8 EconomistâYouGov survey giving him a net minus-seven approval rating overall but a plus-six approval rating on immigration) and positively (an April 10 HarvardâHarris survey giving him a net plus-two approval rating overall but a plus-seven approval rating on immigration). Itâs entirely possible, and even likely, that when the full implications of the Trump-Miller immigration agenda become manifest, particularly when legal immigrants and even citizens are affected, this general-public approbation will fade or even head due south. Indeed, pollster G. Elliott Morris has published an analysis arguing that support for Trumpâs positions declines steadily as questions about them become more specific:
“[W]hen various pollsters asked if they would support deporting immigrants who have been here more than 10 years (as in the case of Abrego Garcia), U.S. adults said ânoâ by a 37 percentage point margin; Americans disapprove of deporting immigrants who have broken no laws other than laws governing entry; they oppose deporting U.S. citizens convicted of crimes to foreign jails, such as [El Salvadorâs] CECOT, and they oppose housing migrants at Guantanamo Bay while they are processed. All of these are policies the Trump administration has now floated or is actively carrying out.”
So the administration may be guilty of rhetorical overreach on immigration at a time when the mass-deportation program is actually going pretty slowly. But what about all the constitutional fears raised by cases like that of Abrego Garcia? Wonât Americans recoil at those signs of a presidency determined to become imperial? Maybe not.
Team Trump has clearly internalized one of the big lessons of the 2024 presidential election: that threats to âthe rule of lawâ or âthe Constitutionâ or âdemocracyâ donât mean a lot to persuadable voters who are most concerned about living costs and their own sense of well-being. If what Trump tried to do on January 6, 2021 doesnât rise to the level of a voting issue for well over half the electorate, then is there any reason to believe that Abrego Garciaâs âdue processâ rights will matter? What is âdue process,â anyway? Like the âpresumption of innocenceâ from which Abrego Garcia should also benefit, itâs a legal concept that an awful lot of regular folks either donât understand or find problematic, particularly when applied to someone the president of the United States has labeled an alien criminal terrorist.
So Team Trump is happy to defy the rule of law, at least at a level short of overt defiance, in any controversy involving immigrants. It pleases the nativist MAGA base immensely to see the administration run circles around âactivist judgesâ in ridding the country of the people Democrats allegedly brought in to âreplaceâ the countryâs historic white majority. And itâs unclear at this point that Democrats and other Trump critics can make smash-and-grab ICE operations that land peaceful American residents in overseas hellholes as frightening as they should be. But as with the increasingly unpopular Trump tariff program, the immigration agenda may lose support the longer, the louder, and the more chaotic it becomes.
I believe Kerry will win Ohio and Florida, as well as Nevada, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Pennsylvania.
Even the best of polls tend to favor the incumbent, and I think they’re all missing the real number, because they’re all forecasting past elections, not this one.
Football Madman wrote:
Here’s a summary of this week’s polls
Bush Kerry
NBC/WSJ 50% 46%
Dem. Corps 49% 49%
Am. Research Grp 47% 46%
Zogby 46% 43%
C.S.M. 46% 43%
Rasmussen 49% 45%
If you consider that normally anywhere from 66% to 75% of undecided voters side with the challenger, it’s safe to say the race is now as close as it was on Election Day 2000.
Posted by Football Madman at September 22, 2004 09:35 PM
=============================
Well said.
Factor in the Likely Voter distortion or misread, and it looks like a Kerry victory.
scott-
Agreed on the desire for a Colorado push. However, both Nevada and West Virginia only have 5 electoral votes. So New Hampshire plus either one of those solo gets a tie in the EV. That throws it to the House, who would certainly pick Bush. There’s an outside shot for the Dems to regain the Senate, in which case they might pick Edwards. But if it’s 50-50, Cheney can break the tie by voting for himself.
Tony,
Your scenarios make sense — though if Kerry actually holds all of the Gore 2000 states, including Iowa, then I think that NH + NV would (just barely) do it. NH + WV, however, would not.
I still think that, of those non-FL scenarios, NH + CO is the best bet. Multiple polls from numerous sources have consistently shown that state to be Bush +1 or dead even, and neither the RNC nor the Swift Boat Liars seemed to have any effect on this one way or the other. If you factor in the undecided-for-Kerry vote, that probably means that Kerry is really slightly ahead and has been for a while. Two other factors make CO a prime target for swiping: first, the mounting Hispanic population of the state, which is a big democratic constituency; and second, a popular democratic senate candidate, who also happens to be Hispanic! That should really help Dem turnout (especially among Latinos).
I hope the Kerry campaign and/or the DNC are really making a push in CO — surely they have figured out all this themselves (unless I’m missing something…).
Re: Hurricanes and poll numbers–It is ironic that the Bushes are hoping that by tapping the resources of Big Government, i.e. FEMA, they will boost their approval ratings in Florida. Victims of “acts of God” i.e. explosive growth in the path of increasingly violent weather resulting from global warming, deserve help, while those who have lost their jobs due to outsourcing encouraged by Bush tax policies, are told to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps. Or maybe go to a church food pantry.
If Kerry loses Florida, maybe we should blame it on the weather!
Seriously, I’m not sure if recent polling in the state is really reliable, as a lot of folks are probably missing electricity and phone service, or may not be at their regular homes (which in some cases no longer exist.)
I think the 400-voter sample that a previous poster touted is awful small, however, with a large (5-point) error margin.
I do think the president (and his brother) probably got a boost from the hurricanes, although that may not last through November. Though it’s not as though Kerry will stiff people on disaster relief if he’s elected. Perhaps Kerry should spend more time in damaged areas interacting with voters. That would lead to some favorable news footage.
But if I were him, I wouldn’t be comfortable relying on Florida. Especially after last time, it’s questionable whether Jeb and Co. will provide us with a real reliable vote count (and then there’s that whole voting technology issue.)
Quick post for now.
If the race went as it did in 2000, Bush wins 278-260.
If Bush picks up Iowa and Wisconsin, that would make it Bush 295, Kerry 243.
How to overturn that? Indeed, Florida would do it. While worrisome, a 400 sample of a subset of Florida right after the hurricanes doesn’t worry me too much. But I still hate to count on Florida.
Ohio and New Hampshire combined don’t do it. That would just make it 271-267 Bush, a familiar number, but for unfaithful electors. So, Kerry would have to either pull back Wisconsin or Iowa, or grab another state, most likely Nevada, Colorado, Arkansas, or West Virginia, if ARG’s ordering is right. Maybe a Virginia or North Carolina slips in there, but that seems pretty unlikely.
If Wisconsin goes Bush, basically Kerry needs to win Ohio or Florida, to my eye. And I hate to count on either of those two.
If he can hold Wisconsin, it goes back to that New Hampshire+(Colorado or Arkansas or [Nevada and West Virginia]) scenario.
A decision to pull ads out of Arkansas seems odd to me as that’s one of the ways that this all could sort out.
As to Kerry’s voice…he has a cold. He and Bush are now hunkering down for the debates, so Kerry should be able to rest his voice for a day or two. As has been said ad naueum, the debates will be absolutely key for him.
POLL: KERRY DOWN 12 POINTS IN CRITICAL FLORIDA I4 CORRIDOR….
Very prescient observation Scottso; Since Kerry starts an additional 7 electoral votes behind due to the census, he almost surely will have to win FLA and/or OH to win (NH alone isn’t going to do it) – And that is looking increasingly LESS likely given the Univ of Cincinnatti poll yesterday showing him trailing GWB by 11 points in OH, and the poll below showing him down 12 points in the critical I4 corridor.
The I4 corridor running across central FLA is where FLA will be decided IMO insofar as this is the most balanced party ID part of the state. In 2000, Gore & GWB spilt this vote 50/50. For those of you who are into party IDs, the poll below shows 43% Dem, 42% Rep and 15% Ind. For Kerry to be behind by 10% in this critical part of the state is NOT good news for the Kerry, no matter how this is spun.
Ooops I forgot: This poll is missing all the Dem kids & new voters with cell phones, so it is dramatically under polling Kerry supporters. They did somehow manage to include all the new voters who support GWB & GWB supporters with cell phones, but not Kerry’s.
http://cfn13.com/story.asp?id=59
Central Flordia News
Channel 13
Sep 22, 2004
400 likely November general election voters were interviewed in Tampa Bay and 400 were interviewed in Central Florida by Political/Media Research Inc. of Washington, D.C. from September 17-19, 2004.
The margin for error on each region is plus or minus 5%.
Overall I-4 Corridor results are derived by combining the results of both surveys, with responses weighted to reflect the difference between the total votes that typically come out of each region, which is higher in Tampa Bay by roughly a 3-to-2 margin.
The overall margin for error on the combined I-4 Corridor results in plus or minus 3.5%.
——————————————————————————–
I-4 Corridor = Full I-4 Corridor from Tampa to the East Coast.
Tampa = Greater Tampa Bay area only.
Central FL= Orlando, Melbourne, Daytona Beach area.
QUESTION:
If the 2004 election for President were held today, for whom would you vote:
PRESIDENTAL RACE: I-4 Corridor Tampa Central FL
George W. Bush, Republican 51% 49% 53%
John Kerry, Democrat 38% 39% 37%
Ralph Nader, independent 2% 2% 1%
Undecided 9% 10% 8%
QUESTION:
If the 2004 election for Florida’s U.S. Senate seat were held today, for whom would you vote:
U.S. SENATE RACE: I-4 Corridor Tampa Central FL
Betty Castor, Democrat 42% 46% 35%
Mel Martinez, Republican 41% 35% 50%
Undecided 17% 19% 14%
QUESTION: Which issue will most influence your vote for a President or Senate candidate? The candidate’s stance on:
INFLUENCING ISSUES: I-4 Corridor Tampa Central FL
Homeland Security/War on Terror 27% 27% 26%
Economy & Jobs 18% 17% 20%
The War In Iraq 16% 16% 17%
Health Care/Prescription Drugs 15% 14% 16%
Moral Issues/Family Values 8% 8% 9%
Education 3% 4% 1%
Taxes 2% 3% 1%
Environment 2% 2% 2%
Other/Not Sure 9% 9% 8%
DEMOGRAPHICS:
PARTY: I-4 Corridor Tampa Central FL
Democrat 43% 43% 42%
Republican 42% 42% 43%
independent 15% 15% 15%
SEX:
Male 49% 49% 50%
Female 51% 51% 50%
> Kerry would seem, to me, to be the decided underdog
> in a debate with Bush. Not because of the facts, of
> course, but because Bush is brilliant at coming of as
> the down home folksy yay-hoo that people, for some
> reason, seem to want in a president.
I wholeheartedly agree with that assessment — but is this necessarily a bad thing?! “Everybody” now thinks Kerry is a long-winded stiffo who is unwilling or unable to clearly articulate what he believes in. On the other hand, “Shrub” cannot pull off his usual folksy-jokey act quite as easily this time, since he is now the President of the U.S. and he has to explain and justify quite a few embarrassing things about Iraq, jobs, the deficit etc.. The expectations on him when he was debating Al Gore four years ago were _FAR_ lower.
—
If Kerry manages to come across as better informed while managing to give short, succinct and determined answers to questions — by no means an impossibility since he been a good closer in recent elections — he has got an _excellent_ chance of winning it all. In any case, the debates will be the first time that is effectively being “interviewed” by representatives of the American people in prime time, while everybody is watching. It’s a splendid opportunity for him to show he is not as bad as some people think. Probably his first *and* last opportunity in this regard, so it is difficult to overstate the importance of the TV debates.
—
In contrast, people already know what “Shrub” stands for. Consequently, the best case scenario for the President is that Kerry implodes; I don’t think “Shrub’s” own performance will surprise or convince many people who were sceptical about him simply because he has been repeating basically the same message for years now.
MARCU$
Kerry would seem, to me, to be the decided underdog in a debate with Bush. Not because of the facts, of course, but because Bush is brilliant at coming of as the down home folksy yay-hoo that people, for some reason, seem to want in a president.
Personally, I don’t think that folksiness should be part of the criteria for evaluating a president. If it were, then I’d vote for my plumber. But the reality is that Kerry is going to have to come strong–really strong–if he’s going to defeat Bush in the debates. Again, it’s not about logic or issues or right vs. wrong. It’s about image. Sadly, a lot of voters in this country aren’t capable of going any deeper than that.
First time poster… so maybe I don’t know anything, but…
Susan-
That would be nice, but I somehow doubt that a monte carlo simulation like that paints an accurate picture of the actual election.
I think that Kerry probably is coming back a bit, but he certainly lost quite a bit of his support from August. Seemingly, the race is at best dead even now, where as before it was favoring Kerry consistently by about 3 points (at least in Rasmussen).
The ARG Poll definitely looks much better for Kerry than other polls that I’ve seen recently. Hopefully it’s as good as Ruy says it is.
Unfortunately, it looks like Kerry is pulling advertising money from Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana, and (most importantly) Missouri. Unless something dramatically changes with the debates, it looks like the campaign is writing these states off, despite Arkansas looking close in ARG’s poll. I suppose the debate at my Alma Mater (Go WashU!) could help Kerry in MO if he does well in it, but I think it’s safe to say that the electoral map looks worse for Kerry than it did Pre-August.
On another note, I’m very surprised that CO, NV and WV are so close, and also a bit skeptical about it. I mean, don’t get me wrong, it’d be fantastic if Kerry could pull one of these off, but I have a feeling it won’t happen.
Which basically brings up the same situation that Gore was in last time: Kerry has to win all of the “Gore” states plus either OH or FL. In terms of Kerry winning the “Gore” states… well, it looks like they will be just as tough to win as they were back in 2000. I think Kerry is definitely capable of doing it, but it seems like more of an uphill climb for Kerry than it does for Bush.
Finally, though I’m making these points based on the polls, I can’t help but wonder if the polls are just somehow fundamentally wrong this time around. Despite what people say, I actually do know of at least one Gore voter that’s voting for Bush, but still anecdotally speaking, I know far more Bush voters who are now voting Kerry. Obviously, this is not scientific at all, but deep down I feel like the “Anti-Bush” factor isn’t being sampled properly in the polls. Perhaps that’s only what I want to think. =)
Just my thoughts.
What’s Kerry doing to prep for the debates? I hope hes getting plenty of sleep and resting his voice…he needs to look presidential, especially needs to look confident. Hope they are working withsome writers to get some catchy quips…don’t underestimate dubya…he surprised Gore and me too.
The level of expertise at this site is very impressive. As you poll augerers dissect these national and state polls, is there a way to start determining whether the chances of another Bush loss of the popular vote, but victory in the electoral college, are increasing? Perhaps Kerry’s margin of victory will not be enough in NY, CA and IL for that to happen again, as his numbers seem to be sliding in thise states right now.
Two things: first the CBS/Rather brouhaha. How come so little focus on the possibility that this was to benefit Repubs. (Admittedly the Kerry campaign can’t GO NEAR this one, but bloggers should hammer away and write to papers, especially the NY Times, with evidence and cogent arguments. I still say Kerry can’t win unless he EFFECTIVELY and not belatedly counters the flipflop spin.
Second, the debates. It’s significantly a matter of Kerry’s handling himself properly, and willingness to really respond to lies, especially ANY reference to the flipflop template, very firmly. In the past, he failed to do this with O’neill in 71, in the primary debates when (guess who?) Dan Rather presented a study purporting to show him the “most liberal” US Senator and Edwards at #4, when BOTH voted for the Iraq authorization (neither Rather nor the National Journal are to be trusted), and in the campaign. Bush responded to the NYU speech (with lies) forcefully within 24 hours. It’s not Bush’s pathological lying but Kerry’s ineffective half-hearted countering to charges that is the danger.
Then there’s how the press spins it. If Kerry lets himself be painted by the opposition, and then the press spins it further, he’s a goner, even if the polls are close now. If he uses the debate to call Bush on key false spins in his campaign, instead of diplomatically evading hitting nails on the head, for example the formalistic legal approach to the SwiftBoatVeteransForSlime smear, then he will have Bush nailed. Guess which approach I bet he will follow and with what results.
CLOUDY
It’s great to see Kerry getting 270 electoral votes in the ARG data — plus maybe 15 more, if you count WV and WI, which is probably appropriate, given that undecideds go overwhelmingly for the challenger in an election with an incumbent.
The troubling thing, however, is that when you get down to it that electoral vote “virtual victory” is due almost entirely to Kerry being ahead in FL — a chancy proposition. I have always been very nervous about Kerry’s chances there, just because FL truly is the swing state to end all swing states, and because Jeb & co will likely do everything they can to steal the state if there’s any possibility. So I keep wondering: is there any realistic way that Kerry could win this thing without FL (or OH)?
I think it’s possible, but tough; many polls from other organizations have shown him ahead in NH (4 votes),but he would need to steal another medium-sized state from Bush to win without FL — and I think the only reasonable target is CO, which all polls have shown being neck-and-neck for the last month or more. Kerry surely has to hold PA to win (I think everyone would agree on that), and I have a hunch that OH will slide to Bush in the end (other polls don’t look so great there). So my calculus is: assuming Kerry takes PA and loses OH, he needs to either a) take FL or b) take NH + CO to win the election.
So why do I hear that the Dems are reducing their ads in CO? Does their internal polling show something different than everybody else’s public polls?
Is kerry losing his voice? Ijust heard he has laryngitis….may rest voice for the debate next week.
Here is an election model that shows Kerry with a 93.9% chance of victory! http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/
Here’s a summary of this week’s polls
Bush Kerry
NBC/WSJ 50% 46%
Dem. Corps 49% 49%
Am. Research Grp 47% 46%
Zogby 46% 43%
C.S.M. 46% 43%
Rasmussen 49% 45%
If you consider that normally anywhere from 66% to 75% of undecided voters side with the challenger, it’s safe to say the race is now as close as it was on Election Day 2000.
Is the uptick maybe related to him going to the state? Or do they attribute it to maybe his monday speech?
http://www.dailykos.com/
OK-Sen: Okie papers demand Coburn step down
Why so many calls from the press for integrity in the senate and not in the bush white house?
I was just watching Chris Mathews and I think he said that a new CNN/Gallup poll showed kerry and Bush tied. If all these new polls are correct it looks like Kerry’s get tough attitude is working.
Thank you, EDM staff. I think Kerry is doing very well given the rightwing biased media.
We need to create a Democratic Noise Machine to counter the Repblican disinformation campaigns. I also heartily approve of Kerry’s decision to focus on Iraq and to speak more forcefully. I think the more attacking he does and the less defending the better.
I hope he realizes that Bush is a good debater. Bush is good because he is a pathological liar, and he understands that many Americans will evaluate the debate in terms of the perceived personality of the debater, not the substance of the remarks. Kerry, because he is honest and intelligent, is at a distinct disadvantage.
In this election the debates may prove critical.
Bush’s numbers coming down after his big public relations show is consistant with the peculiar pattern his popularity ratings have shown all through his presidency: large bounces on big ticket items like 9/11 and the start of the Iraq war, always followed by slow but persistant declines. Other presidents have had much more stable favorability ratings. Hopefully, the last bounce has come and gone.
But the debates are the last big chance to influence numbers, and that will be the NEXT to last chapter in the polling story.
Keep in mind at all times: nothing is certain in a close race until the election day numbers are all in. Except, of course, for Florida…
The reposting of the site policy was helpful.
I too follow ARG and Rasmussen. I also review the Electoral Vote Predictor every morning. There appears a slight shift to Kerry in the last week. This shift is in line with my non-scientific sense (gained throiugh reading the editorial pages of approximately 10 papers a day).
If I were to predict – I think the trend will continue and Kerry will win in a close race (based on swing voters, minority voters, and newly registered voters).
Lets hope the MO continues.
Jody
Jeezusaleezus…That’s a TWELVE percent “drop” for Bush in less than a week
Time to beach the swift boat and jump in the life boats…
Bush can’t stand another 6 weeks of losses like this!
đ
Sep 22
Rasmussen shows a slight uptick for Kerry in FL now two days in a row. Trend? Too early to tell.
Too early to throw a party, but the ARG data Ruy posted today must be giving freepers the vapors.
Interesting points from Alan Abramowitz. It’s helpful to know how this poll compares to others. That suggests that the spread is about a 3% Bush lead at this point (1% for ARG, 2.4% for ARG being slightly more favorable for Kerry).
I’m gonna cut and paste my comment from another thread. I posted it there, but it’s more appropriate for the ARG thread:
———————-
Looking over the ARG results…first, they note a 47-46 Bush lead, across the country. They see Bush up 133-132 in states outside the margin of error. They see Kerry up 270-253 in states with any lead. Um, I keep saying this, but this race is gonna be close.
Here are the 27 states with single digit differences, starting with the most pro-Bush, ending with the most pro-Kerry:
Mississippi Bush +9
Louisiana Bush +8
Tennessee Bush +7
Arizona Bush +6
Missouri Bush +6
Virginia Bush +6
North Carolina Bush +5
Arkansas Bush +3
Iowa Bush +2
Nevada Bush +2
Ohio Bush +2
New Hampshire Bush +2
Colorado Bush +1
West Virginia tie
Wisconsin tie
Florida Kerry +1
Pennsylvania Kerry +1
Minnesota Kerry +2
Oregon Kerry +2
Maine Kerry +4
New Mexico Kerry +5
Illinois Kerry +6
Washington Kerry +7
New Jersey Kerry +8
Michigan Kerry +8
Delaware Kerry +9
Maryland Kerry +9
If you do the cut at states being within 3% one way or the other, that includes (12):
Bush 2000 states–Arkansas, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida, West Virginia
Gore 2000 states–Iowa, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
For a 4-6% difference (7):
Bush 2000 states–North Carolina, Arizona, Virginia, Missouri
Gore 2000 states–Maine (and that danged distict…), New Mexico, Illinois
For a 7-9% difference (8):
Bush 2000 states–Tennessee, Louisiana, Mississippi
Gore 2000 states–Washington, Michigan, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland
I’d think those first dozen states are the main battleground these days, with Maine and New Mexico added given recent polls by other organizations. That yields 7 Bush 2000 states and 7 Gore 2000 states.
But keep an eye on some of those other states to see if there is a discernible shift in the near future.