March 6: Trump Job Approval Again Underwater, Where It Belongs
As an inveterate poll-watcher, I have been waiting for the moment when Donald Trump’s job approval numbers went underwater, his accustomed position for nearly all of his presidential career. It arrived around the time he made his speech to Congress, as I noted at New York:
Even as he was delivering the most partisan address to Congress maybe ever, Donald Trump’s public support seemed to be regularly eroding. An updated FiveThirtyEight average of Trump’s approval ratings on March 4 (released just as news broke that ABC was shutting down the revered data site) showed him going underwater for the first time since reoccupying the White House, with 47.6 percent approval and 47.9 percent disapproval. That puts Trump back in the same territory of public opinion he occupied during his first term as president, where (per Gallup) he never achieved more than 50 percent job approval, and averaged a mere 41 percent.
Perhaps Trump will get lucky and conditions in the country will improve enough to validate his agenda, but it’s more likely that the same sour public climate that overwhelmed Joe Biden will now afflict his predecessor and successor.
The Reuters/Ipsos survey that pushed Trump’s numbers into negative territory showed a mood very different from the 47th president’s boasts about a new “golden age” for our country:
“Thirty-four percent of Americans say that the country is headed in the right direction, compared to 49% who say it is off on the wrong track. When it comes to several specific issues, Americans are more likely to say things are off on the wrong track than going in the right direction: cost of living (22% right direction / 60% wrong track), the national economy (31% right direction / 51% wrong track), national politics (33% right direction / 50% wrong track), American foreign policy (33% right direction / 49% wrong track), and employment and jobs (33% right direction / 47% wrong track).”
So all the hype about Trump being a popular president who was in the midst of engineering a major realignment of the American electorate is already looking more than a bit hollow. Trump has a solid Republican base of support and a solid Democratic opposition, with independents currently leaning towards the Democratic Party on most issues. Perhaps Trump’s agenda will gain momentum and support, but since he’s not trying to reach out beyond his party’s base at all, he’s going to need a lift from Americans who only voted for him in 2024 as the lesser of evils and may not vote in the 2026 midterms at all.
At present Trump has lost whatever presidential “honeymoon” he initially enjoyed after his return to the White House, and needs to find new converts to return to genuine popularity. He’s not off to a great start.
I live in ABQ. The Journal is a Republican rag. Has been for years. Progressives in this state take anything the Journal says with a grain of salt. The editor of the Journal is a very conservative Southern Baptist.
Thanks.
I only rely on the best pollsters, like Rasmussen and Zogby. Z is straight up, and Ras leans right, but he leans, and he’s not unreasonable or excessive in his lean. I judge a pollster by how reliable they are once you calibrate for their bias.
If they are all over the place, they are not good for anything. As Z said yesterday “any time a poll changes 10 points in a week, you should check your data.”
Some out there now are street whores at escort prices, and like their analogous pimps, they gots to get paid, yo.
The Albuquerque Journal is part of a
joint operating agreement with the
Scripps-Howard paper, the Tribune.
It was locally owned, but after a quick
tour via Yahoo I couldn’t determine
the present status.
Given the reach of Richard Scaife, Rupert Murdoch, and Rev. Moon in American media, particularly second and third string newspapers, I never trust a newspaper until I know who owns it.
I believe it’s the paper of record for New Mexico. I don’t know what editorial positions it normally takes. I noticed that Bush has hit 32% among Latinos, if only 24% among Dems, and that Repubs in NM normally need over 25% Dems and over 25% Latinos to win. Are Simon Rosenberg, NDN, and the Unidos por Kerry/Edwards team on it? Should we expect to retake the lead any day here?
Anyone know who owns the paper, or who owns the polling company, or what connections either have to either party or candidate?