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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Zogby Polls Say Kerry leads in 13 of 16 Swing States

The Wall St. Journal reports “The latest Zogby Interactive poll, taken during the Democratic convention, shows John Kerry ahead in 13 of the 16 battleground states we track. That is his biggest lead — in terms of the number of states — since Zogby began conducting twice-a-month online polls for WSJ.com in late May. Moreover, his lead is greater than the margin of error in five of the states (including Pennsylvania), up from four states just before the convention. And Mr. Kerry took back narrow leads in Florida and West Virginia.”

4 comments on “Zogby Polls Say Kerry leads in 13 of 16 Swing States

  1. Jon Rudd on

    Note that Zogby has just classified AZ, CO, VA, and NC as “battleground states”. I thought these states were supposed to be RED. 😀
    PS: VA hasn’t gone Democratic in a Presidential election since 1964.

  2. herbgarcia on

    Very interesting if you look at this poll state by state.
    Using WSJ definitions and expanding it, if you take “Tier I” Kerry battleground states (five of them MI, MN, NH, PA & WA) to be states where he is ahead above the margin of error, adding the electoral votes gives Kerry only 245. Still not enough to win. If you make another set of “Tier II” Kerry battleground states as states where Gore won and Kerry is ahead (OR, IA, NM, WI), then Kerry wins with a total electoral vote of 274. In other words each one of these 9 states is a Kerry MUST WIN, since any of these in the Bush column and Bush wins. OTOW, what is interesting is that there isn’t a single battleground state where Gore won last time and Bush is ahead now. I’m not a professional politician but it must be easier to convince someone to vote Dem again, than to get people to change their mind and admit they were wrong 4 years ago.
    Still, although this proves it really is a ballgame,
    Kerry has the advantage in turnovers and hopefully politics is like football….
    The strategy should be to pound on the four Tier II states (and throw in Nevada (cheap), West Virginia(maybe?) and Florida GOTV), focus on the Tier I states and hope for the best in Missouri, Tennessee and maybe West Virginia.
    But what about Colorado?

  3. Brew on

    A lot of people in Ohio work/ed in industries at least tangentially related to Defense, so there’s that. The state has also been leaning right over the past few years – I think in part due to the flagging influence of organized labor as the jobless rates grow.

  4. warp resident on

    Put it another way: Bush leads is 3 of 16 swing states.
    1. Bush’s lead in NV is 0.6% and the WSJ paints it bright red!
    2. Arkansas is a swing state?
    3. What’s up with Ohio? Did all the unemployed move to Illinois?


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