Don’t look now, but it’s already time for the DNC and the states to figure out the 2028 Democratic presidential primary calendar, so I wrote an overview at New York:
The first 2028 presidential primaries are just two years away. And for the first time since 2016, both parties are expected to have serious competition for their nominations. While Vice-President J.D. Vance is likely to enter the cycle as a formidable front-runner for the GOP nod, recent history suggests there will be lots of other candidates. After all, Donald Trump drew 12 challengers in 2024. On the Democratic side, there is no one like Vance (or Hillary Clinton going into 2016 or Joe Biden going into 2020) who is likely to become the solid front-runner from the get-go, though Californians Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris lead all of the way too early polls.
But 2028 horse-race speculation really starts with the track itself, as the calendar for state contests still isn’t set. What some observers call the presidential-nominating “system” isn’t something the national parties control. In the case of primaries utilizing state-financed election machinery, state laws govern the timing and procedures. Caucuses (still abundant on the Republican side and rarer among Democrats) are usually run by state parties. National parties can vitally influence the calendar via carrots (bonus delegates at the national convention) or sticks (loss of delegates) and try to create “windows” for different kinds of states to hold their nominating contests to space things out and make the initial contests competitive and representative. But it’s sometimes hit or miss.
Until quite recently, the two parties tended to move in sync on such calendar and map decisions. But Democrats have exhibited a lot more interest in ensuring that the “early states” — the ones that kick off the nominating process and often determine the outcome — are representative of the party and the country as a whole and give candidates something like a level playing field. Prior to 2008, both parties agreed to do away with the traditional duopoly, in which the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary came first, by allowing early contests representing other regions (Nevada and South Carolina). And both parties tolerated the consolidation of other states seeking influence into a somewhat later “Super Tuesday” cluster of contests. But in 2024 Democrats tossed Iowa out of the early-state window altogether and placed South Carolina first (widely interpreted as Joe Biden’s thank-you to the Palmetto State for its crucial role in saving his campaign in 2020 after poor performances in other early states), with Nevada and New Hampshire voting the same day soon thereafter. Republicans stuck with the same old calendar with Trump more or less nailing down the nomination after Iowa and New Hampshire.
For 2028, Republicans will likely stand pat while Democrats reshuffle the deck (the 2024 calendar was explicitly a one-time-only proposition). The Democratic National Committee has set a January 16 deadline for states to apply for early-state status. And as the New York Times’ Shane Goldmacher explains, there is uncertainty about the identity of the early states and particularly their order:
“The debate has only just begun. But early whisper campaigns about the weaknesses of the various options already offer a revealing window into some of the party’s racial, regional and rural-urban divides, according to interviews with more than a dozen state party chairs, D.N.C. members and others involved in the selection process.
“Nevada is too far to travel. New Hampshire is too entitled and too white. South Carolina is too Republican. Iowa is also too white — and its time has passed.
“Why not a top battleground? Michigan entered the early window in 2024, but critics see it as too likely to bring attention to the party’s fractures over Israel. North Carolina or Georgia would need Republicans to change their election laws.”
Nevada and New Hampshire have been most aggressive about demanding a spot at the beginning of the calendar, and both will likely remain in the early-state window, representing their regions. The DNC could push South Carolina aside in favor of regional rivals Georgia or North Carolina. Michigan is close to a lock for an early midwestern primary, but its size, cost, and sizable Muslim population (which will press candidates on their attitude towards Israel’s recent conduct) would probably make it a dubious choice to go first. Recently excluded Iowa (already suspect because it’s very white and trending Republican, then bounced decisively after its caucus reporting system melted down in 2020) could stage a “beauty contest” that will attract candidates and media even if it doesn’t award delegates.
Even as the early-state drama unwinds, the rest of the Democratic nomination calendar is morphing as well. As many as 14 states are currently scheduled to hold contests on Super Tuesday, March 7. And a 15th state, New York, may soon join the parade. Before it’s all nailed down (likely just after the 2026 midterms), decisions on the calendar will begin to influence candidate strategies and vice versa. Some western candidates (e.g., Gavin Newsom or Ruben Gallego) could be heavily invested in Nevada, while Black proto-candidates like Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and Wes Moore might pursue a southern primary. Progressive favorites like AOC or Ro Khanna may have their own favorite launching pads, while self-identified centrists like Josh Shapiro or Pete Buttigieg might have others. Having a home state in the early going is at best a mixed blessing: Losing your home-state primary is a candidate-killer, and winning it doesn’t prove a lot. And it’s also worth remembering that self-financed candidates like J.B. Pritzker may need less of a runway to stage a nationally viable campaign.
So sketching out the tracks for all those 2028 horses, particularly among Democrats, is a bit of a game of three-dimensional chess. We won’t know how well they’ll run here or there until it’s all over.
Well, barring an Al Quaida sideshow, then Kerry has it pretty much sown up..
However, I tend to think that even if the Bin Ladin clan staged an event, the Kerry crew still has a hope. I personally believe that desparate times, require desparate action and as such, any event by Al Quaida should drive the DEMs into stating in no uncertain terms that the ability of Al Quaida to successfully stage an event 2 -3 years after Bush was given a mandate to secure the nation, is living proof of his inability to get the job done. As such, he is leaving all of america and he people vulnerable and open to further humiliation, global embarrasment, open fear and general suffering.
This is the tact that would have to be used in order the right side up the cart. Any other apporach would be too weak and would lead to a Bush victory. The DEMS need to prepare for this eventuality and dont put it past the GOP to latch onto such an event for political gains.
> He can’t
> count on the economy because its heading down
> hill at a rapid rate.
Well, at *best*, the record will be mixed — but I think Kerry already has enough fuel to keep the economic fire burning through Nov. 2 even if “Shrub” gets lucky from now on. There is supposedly an old rule saying an incumbent needs half a year of good news on the economy to convince voters they’ve turned the corner. I don’t think a temporary upswing in new jobs created this fall will do the trick — particularly since fuel prices are expected to remain high for the rest of the year.
> He cant count on being a war president because
> that was is yet to produce results.
Maybe the Afghani elections will turn out to be smashing success, but I would not exactly count on that either. As you say, Iraq will remain bad for the foreseeable future.
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I think the Administration’s best bet might be in the “lost and found” category. Found! WMD evidence, at last. Found! bin Laden and Al-Zarqawi(sp). The latter isn’t such a big stretch, but even Saddam’s capture didn’t cause a lasting bounce.
> It seems to me that his only hope is to smear
> kerry to the ground and role him in the dirt,
Won’t work… Kerry/Edwards and their base (which is angry as hell, as am I) have made a conscious effort to put on a positive face. Their message is patriotic, positive in tone and generally upbeat — the 527s are doing the Dems’ dirty work for Kerry. It will be pretty hard for “Shrub” and “Right Wing Dick” to launch a smearing campaign after the Boston convention. Incumbent presidents have rarely done that at such a late stage in the campaign.
> along with getting his rank and file to rally
> around the waggon and get every possible
> republican and wannabe republicans to vote.
Probably their best bet, I agree about that. However, this means pandering to the extreme religious right at every opportunity. Doesn’t seem like a workable strategy as Kerry/Edwards are working very hard at wooing centrist voters abandoned by the GOP!
> ofcourse, miraculous PR and advertising is
> always there and the GOPs would use it…
No. Emotional spin about Willie Horton, gay marriage, flag burning, liberal flip-flopping etc. work only if the playing field is essentially level and if the GOP candidate has no negative baggage from the past. This is why the Bushes won in 1988 and 2000. Kerry would have been toast if he had tried to run as well. But 2004 is different since most voters really are only interested in the incumbent president’s track record. And that track record looks pretty bad right now, in so many areas.
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Apart from Kerry self-destructing in the debates, there is one major wild-card though. Al Qaeda might want to keep its “useful idiot” good-enemy American president in power, by staging another major attack killing thousands of Americans. Unless it turns out the Administration really screwed up homeland defense before 9/11 pt.II (a distinct possibility, alas), it’s bound to deflect negative attention away from “Shrub”. Don’t forget he *was* quite effective as a cheerleader in late 2001, when his approval ratings were in the 80-90% range (a boost of 40-50%). It could conceivably happen again — especially since Kerry would have little choice but to suspect campaigning and voice his unconditional support of the Admininstration’s policies.
MARCU$
I hope someone with status will get the courage really soon to declare that Bush’s terror announements are 80 percent politricks and 20 percent concern about American safety.
Someone mentioned that if Al Quaida pulls off an event before the elections that it will play directly into Bush’s hand and the country will rally behind him. Personally I tend to agree with that but only if the DEMS allow it to be this way.
Actually, well marketed and laced with good PR, any event of such a nature can be billed as a catastrophic failure of Bush to secure the country after 2 – 3 years of skirting and politicising the issue.
Truth be told, it would be the absolute truth because he had the time and pretty much the budgets to get the job done. So, if this event does happen, I hope that the opposition, who ever they are, is ready to clad the media with this kind of message on every front.
And by the way…. it is possible that not every event of a negative nature in the world might not be the Bin Ladin clan? Is it possible that there are other terrorist groups not linked to Bin Ladin? Is it possible that there are terrorist groups deep with in the US who are ready and waiting to do just as much devasatation as the purported Al Quaida before Nov 2?
Why do we blame every single event on Al Quaida? The reasons why I ask is because no one seems to be doing the research to refute the GOPs constant claims on the subject and the worse fear of all is that this two eyed approach to Al Quaida certainly leaves room for other groups to creep up on our blind side and do just as much damage.
Sometimes I wonder how much free PR Al Quaida gets from this administration and the world… Sometimes I think that these guys have gone pretty dormand and are hibernating… but then some event pops up and its Al Quaida again. hmmm..
If these events are truly always the Bin Ladin clan, then they are super organised and much more sophisticated than any army in the entire universe and then it makes me wonder why spend so many trillions on US military power and these guys are carrying out warfare on donkeys and motor bikes. Strange.. but we find out exactly whats going on here.. it doesnt make sense to me.
cheers
Leslie, Leslie…. you sound nervous. If you are this nervous now, can you imagine the butterflies on elections night? LOL.. LOL…
There comes a point when you simply have to let go and let the system do its work. Before that time, you can make sure to mobilise people in the area who are willing to ensure that the right systems are in place. Beyond that, there is not much more that can be done and you will have to sit quietly and wait for the results.
I would like to think that the DEMs have people on the inside looking after these issues. If they dont, then you have plenty reason for concern as this current admin doesnt allow for much trust.
Start talking to the powers that be, in the party.
Cheers
I’d feel a whole lot better if Florida (and some other states) weren’t using electronic voting machines without paper trails. It wouldn’t be so bad if Jebbie wasn’t the governor there and if the executives of the companies that count the electronic votes weren’t best buddies with Dubya et familia. I hate to sound like I don’t trust the Bushes; it’s just that I don’t trust the Bushes.
The more desperate things become for the Republican Party, the more nervous I get. Karl Rove and his band of meany men are ruthless, and I don’t even want to think what they have up their sleeves for October.
I agree that it’s way, way, beyond Bush’s control by now. He’s a passenger.
The only conceivable way he could win would be an event which causes people to abandon reason and react emotionally. But it’s getting late even for that. Once people have made up their mind against him, a catastrophic event would be less likely to cause a change in their thinking than it would have in 2001, when all but the most partisan voters were keeping an open mind about him, and everybody knew he’d be President for three more years no matter what.
I think that time has run out for Bush. I am sure that he was banking on a much better economical report at this time so the he could have a somewhat solid platform on which to launch his economical policies at the convention. Unfortunately, nothing of the sort happened and now he has to find something on which to run his campaign.
He cannot run it on his record because it has nothing within it by which he can stand. He cant count on the economy because its heading down hill at a rapid rate.
He cant count on being a war president because that was is yet to produce results.
It seems to me that his only hope is to smear kerry to the ground and role him in the dirt, along with getting his rank and file to rally around the waggon and get every possible republican and wannabe republicans to vote.
Beyond this, his days are numbered… The whitehouse is Kerry’s to lose and not Bush’s to win. He has already lost it, so kerry now needs to do what he needs to, to collect the keys.
I am pretty sure that his time has run out. I cant think of any possible report that can show the economy in some radical upswing, I cant think of anythiing that can be done to suddenly create peace in Iraq, I cant think of anything that can change his foreign policy instantly, I cant think of anything that can retract those fleeting truths which he has been laying on the american people in the past two years, I cant think of anything that cause his to get his first elected term in the whitehouse…
ofcourse, miraculous PR and advertising is always there and the GOPs would use it… and I am sure they are about to unleash it..
Cheers
I am particularly encouraged by the way the dreaded “outside events” have gone so far in August. Remember: this month will belong to “Shrub”. He will get lots of media coverage once the GOP convention starts in late August. Kerry won’t get as many good opportunities to make his case e.g. due to the Olympics. So the Republicans are planning a big media blitz. But the first week of this month has been dominated by unexpectedly bad news about the economy, and additional violence in Iraq. This is deadly stuff, since it re-focuses voter attention on this Administration’s track record in 2000-04 while rendering Kerry’s negative “intangibles” (=aloof French-lookin’ Taxachusetts aristocrat out of sync with All-American values etc.) increasingly irrelevant.
Time is running out for “Shrub”. He is the incumbent trying to defend his 1st term achievements. He cannot change the subject to Kerry’s shortcomings as a candidate, unless he has good news to report about the economy or the War on Terror. Right now it seems he needs to place his bets on Pakistan managing to catch bin Laden shortly before Nov.2.
MARCU$