Having closely watched congressional developments over the last few weeks, I’ve concluded that one much-discussed Democratic tactic for dealing with Trump 2.0 is probably mistaken, as I explained at New York:
No one is going to rank Mike Johnson among the great arm-twisting Speakers of the House, like Henry Clay, Tom Reed, Sam Rayburn, or even Nancy Pelosi. Indeed, he still resembles Winston Churchill’s description of Clement Atlee as “a modest man with much to be modest about.”
But nonetheless, in the space of two weeks, Johnson has managed to get two huge and highly controversial measures through the closely divided House: a budget resolution that sets the stage for enactment of Donald Trump’s entire legislative agenda in one bill, then an appropriations bill keeping the federal government operating until the end of September while preserving the highly contested power of Trump and his agents to cut and spend wherever they like.
Despite all the talk of divisions between the hard-core fiscal extremists of the House Freedom Caucus and swing-district “moderate” Republicans, Johnson lost just one member — the anti-spending fanatic and lone wolf Thomas Massie of Kentucky — from the ranks of House Republicans on both votes. As a result, he needed not even a whiff of compromise with House Democrats (only one of them, the very Trump-friendly Jared Golden of Maine, voted for one of the measures, the appropriations bill).
Now there are a host of factors that made this impressive achievement possible. The budget-resolution vote was, as Johnson kept pointing out to recalcitrant House Republicans, a blueprint for massive domestic-spending cuts, not the cuts themselves. Its language was general and vague enough to give Republicans plausible deniability. And even more deviously, the appropriations measure was made brief and unspecific in order to give Elon Musk and Russ Vought the maximum leeway to whack spending and personnel to levels far below what the bill provided (J.D. Vance told House Republicans right before the vote that the administration reserved the right to ignore the spending the bill mandated entirely, which pleased the government-hating HFC folk immensely). And most important, on both bills Johnson was able to rely on personal lobbying from key members of the administration, most notably the president himself, who had made it clear any congressional Republican who rebelled might soon be looking down the barrel of a Musk-financed MAGA primary opponent. Without question, much of the credit Johnson is due for pulling off these votes should go to his White House boss, whose wish is his command.
But the lesson Democrats should take from these events is that they cannot just lie in the weeds and expect the congressional GOP to self-destruct owing to its many divisions and rivalries. In a controversial New York Times op-ed last month, Democratic strategist James Carville argued Democrats should “play dead” in order to keep a spotlight on Republican responsibility for the chaos in Washington, D.C., which might soon extend to Congress:
“Let the Republicans push for their tax cuts, their Medicaid cuts, their food stamp cuts. Give them all the rope they need. Then let dysfunction paralyze their House caucus and rupture their tiny majority. Let them reveal themselves as incapable of governing and, at the right moment, start making a coordinated, consistent argument about the need to protect Medicare, Medicaid, worker benefits and middle-class pocketbooks. Let the Republicans crumble, let the American people see it, and wait until they need us to offer our support.”
Now to be clear, Congressional GOP dysfunction could yet break out; House and Senate Republicans have struggled constantly to stay on the same page on budget strategy, the depth of domestic-spending cuts, and the extent of tax cuts. But as the two big votes in the House show, their three superpowers are (1) Trump’s death grip on them all, (2) the willingness of Musk and Vought and Trump himself to take the heat for unpopular policies, and (3) a capacity for lying shamelessly about what they are doing and what it will cost. Yes, ultimately, congressional Republicans will face voters in November 2026. But any fear of these elections is mitigated by the realization that thanks to the landscape of midterm races, probably nothing they can do will save control of the House or forfeit control of the Senate. So Republicans have a lot of incentives to follow Trump in a high-speed smash-and-grab operation that devastates the public sector, awards their billionaire friends with tax cuts, and wherever possible salts the earth to make a revival of good government as difficult as possible. Democrats have few ways to stop this nihilistic locomotive. But they may be fooling themselves if they assume it’s going off the rails without their active involvement.
This will probably be the Convention:
Thursday, July 29, 2004
Official GOP Chaplain to lead convention prayer
The General was pleased to see that Jerry Falwell has been tapped to give the opening prayer at the Republican Convention. As the following quotes demonstrate, there is no other pastor in this country who better embodies the values of Our Leader, the Anointed One.
“The idea that religion and politics don’t mix was invented by the Devil to keep Christians from running their own country.
If you’re not a born-again Christian, you’re a failure as a human being.
It appears that America’s anti-Biblical feminist movement is at last dying, thank God, and is possibly being replaced by a Christ-centered men’s movement which may become the foundation for a desperately needed national spiritual awakening.
The Bible is the inerrant … word of the living God. It is absolutely infallible,without error in all matters pertaining to faith and practice, as well as in areas such as geography, science, history, etc.
Grown men should not be having sex with prostitutes unless they are married to them.
I hope I live to see the day when, as in the early days of our country, we won’t have any public schools. The churches will have taken them over again and Christians will be running them. What a happy day that will be!
AIDS is not just God’s punishment for homosexuals; it is God’s punishment for the society that tolerates homosexuals.
God continues to lift the curtain and allow the enemies of America to give us probably what we deserve.
The ACLU’s got to take a lot of blame for this [terrorist attacks].
And, I know that I’ll hear from them for this. But, throwing God out successfully with the help of the federal court system, throwing God out of the public square, out of the schools. The abortionists have got to bear some burden for this because God will not be mocked. And when we destroy 40 million little innocent babies, we make God mad. I really believe that the pagans, and the abortionists, and the feminists, and the gays and the lesbians who are actively trying to make that an alternative lifestyle, the ACLU, People for the American Way — all of them who have tried to secularize America — I point the finger in their face and say, “You helped this [terrorist attacks] happen.”
Eldon and rachel, I love your approach with a certain amount of intensity. Its very reassuring, please pass the word around so that the other democrats and kerry supporters can get some of these butterflies outta their stomachs. This level of anxiety can lead to stress.
I also agree that Bush really has no issues on which to run. I have posted this several times and hence I think Kerry supporters need not worry so much. In the final analysis, I am pretty certain that America will vote with its heart and mind. If this is the case, then Bush has no platform on which to run and certainly none on which to win.
I just cant wait to hear and see the contents of this convention. I perceive a meeting full of hype and rhetoric and begging. What’s new that BUsh can bring to the public domain now? He had his chance, he made his promises and he failed. Is he going to outline a whole new batch of promises? Who wll consume these promises this time?
All that Bush has any choice of saying is that “we have turned the corner and we cant turn back now” and any fool can see thats a generic statement and can mean just about anything.. and I mean anything. It can even mean that Bush has turned the corner outta the white house and cant turn back now too.
I await the convention and I join with other believers to say that Kerry and Edwards will win and I have no qualms about saying it either. The moral fibre of the American people is at stake here and Bush has scuttled it so badly over the past four years thats its important for the people to simply get it back because they know that Bush does not know what on earth the term “moral fibre” means.
Lets also note that the world needs a change. Pay attention to the quality of the results in athens, the international press coverage and the crowd responses and you will see how much the US needs to change this president and reubuild its alliances. Its needed sooooooooooooo badly that it hurts.
Go campaign for your team..
Cheers
I agree with rachelrachel. People are underestimating Kerry’s shrewdness. He set himself up, for instance, as a target for the Swift Boat Liars, and they fell for it, looking in the final analysis like third string basketball players who should be back on the bench. All of their best chances for slinging slime will be yesterday’s news on the bottom of the birdcage, and Bush will be left with nothing to talk about except the issues, which is hard to do when you can’t put a sentence together with both a subject and a verb.
The Kerry camp immediately came back with speeches where Bush talked about the importance of being sensitive, the excerpt of which was played on the networks, the effect of which is that Cheney no longer lashes out at Kerry for his “sensitive” remark. Like any candidate in a competitive race, Kerry sometimes has to play defense, and here he did it effectively.
The swift boat attacks seem to have fizzled out.
No matter how emotionally satisfying some people find it, the AWOL stuff is useless against Bush, about whom most voters already have an opinion.
Anybody who has been following Kerry knows that (even though he has vowed to stay positive) he has been attacking Bush on his record.
Kerry knows what he’s doing, and unless the dynamic changes dramatically before November, he will be the next occupant of the White House.
“Both Kerry and Edwards voted to send troops into harm’s way and then voted against the funds to support troops in Iraq and Afghanistan with supplies like body armor and ammunition,” said Jones.
To the casual reader, the above statement by Jones of the GOP seems like an indictment on both Kerry and Edwards but technically, its not. Its fuel for the DEMS.
Its really an acceptance and admission by the GOP that the president did send the troops in harms way. Add this to the many revelations regarding this invasion, then add it again to the many untruths from the president and his cohorts and then add it again, for good measure, to the shifting reasons for the invasion and you will see that the president, knowingly sent the troops into harms way, knowing also that the reasons were unjustified, knowing also that he concopted his stories, knowing also that he never intended to pursure the perpetrators of 9/11.
So, this statement is not a negative but an open admission by the president’s men that he failed this country and its people, yet again.
Can the democrats ask for more fodder and fuel than this? They have all the amunition they need at their finger tips, their fingers are on the triggers, they just need to act decisively on the information and fuel which they have in hand… and trust me, they have arsenals of it.
I am not really sure what they are waiting for.. but I think they are holding until after the convention and hence nullify any possible responses that the GOP might want to make at the convention.
But even then, it might not be a bad idea to pepper the GOP so badly, that they need to be on the defensive at the convention.. it might not be bad idea to have them gasping for breath while they speak and literally seek to throw them off topic.
If only the democrats had strategists and real PR people and such… they could have considered a two pronged approach, where they give the GOP tons of questions to answer just about the time they go into the convention… and then.. as soon as the convention is over, have a blitz to refute every plan of action which they propose.
Its always a good idea to keep your opponent on the back foot, on the defensive, wondering whats next, breathing heavy and gasping for air.
Ask Al Quaida about this method of winning battles. These guys still have the world second guessing, still wondering where next, still looking over its shoulders and yet, they live such a primitive life. Its so fascinating. hmm
It would do the democrats a good to try hitting the GOP around the knees and throwing them off balance just before and during the convention… they should not leave that up to the protestors.
Cheers
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/3562470.stm
when you read the above, you will find that Kerry can easily be the next president. I cant see how he can lose it. The electorate wants to have a change and they will get one.
From reading and receiving the many comments on this wild wild web, its obvious that every person who wants a change in the white house is a bit worried about the methods of the kerry campaign.
I have e-chatted with people in the US and other places around the world and just about everyone, who fits the above mold, is kinda concerned.
My response however is that I dont genuinely think that there should be a whole lots of butterflies and those squelchy feelings which we tend to get in our stomachs when we are anxious. I think that we need to do the analysis and not the complex analyses which we get from the polls but that simple analysis which we get from the human heart.
I cannot think of any right minded, right thinking american who would want to live thru what this adminstration has created for its people in the past four years. Forget about pandering to the rich, forget about invading Iraq for sinister reasons and you will still realise that this administration has taken its people on a horrific ride of failures, lies, deceit and hair splitting explanations.
While I am quick to admit that the GOP functions in the same mode as AL Quaida and hence, it will rally around its man, I think that there are enough angry and disillusioned republicans who will either vote for Kerry or, will simply stay at home and not vote.
I know that the press is thinking twice about giving Kerry good and open publicity but its not the press that decides the outcome of the elections, its the electorate. The fact that the polls keep showing the two prospects in a tight neck and neck race is a clear indicator that the electorate is not following the press’ leads and are making up their own minds based on their own experiences and real life visuals of the situation in the US today.
I am not even convinced that those being polled are giving the polsters accurate information or that the polsters are offering balanced questions.
In any event, I dont think that kerry supporters or whitehouse changers need to catch butterflies during this election period because I have enogh confidence in the peoples of the US to vote with their hearts and minds and experiences.
I feel pretty sure that the GOP will fall on a surprise in November.
For those who are not so convinced, start beating the pavements and canvas for you man.
Cheers
Well… its good that the dems are getting their own to talk… the next steop now will be to find the best media and use them.
I too wonder if it wont be better to keep targetting local media as they are more inclined to do the actual reporting.
Sometimes it doesnt hurt to pay for PR either..
Cheers
Does Kerry have surrogates in the swing states? While the national media seem to be ignoring the nuances and lies of the Bush/Cheney team, the local media seem to eat up local visits with more in depth coverage. Are Howard Dean, Wes Clark and Gephardt speaking to local groups and finding their comments reported?
Are the local media in swing states more important than national media in winning this election?
Polling is one indication. I am wondering about the larger than usual crowds that come to see Kerry. Is this an energized base? Or are the polls missing something?
This site always calms my nerves:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
The kerry camp doesnt seem to care…. how could they allow Cheney and wife to talk so much nonsense about being sensitive in war and not blanket the media with stern rebuttals?
How could they let them get away with this crap?
The media does not care to report the truth either and they certain are not interested in investigative journalism. I am yet to hear a single journalist confront the GOP or even Cheney to expand on his rant about Kerry and sensitive wars. Are they really this afraid of Cheney, Bush and the GOP?
Why are the journalist always asking Kerry to define and defend his position and never asking Bush or Cheney to define and explain their variants on the truth. When are the journalists going to call these people on their lies?
What a weak democratic camp and what a woeful bunch of journalists.
cheers
you are right warp resident.. if kerry and crew cant push bush onto the back foot and onto the floor because of his four year record, then he really does not deserve to be president.. and I mean that. He wont be able to contain the four years of relentless attacks from the GOP during his presidency. They wont let him run the place.. so I agree…. if he cant knock this guy off based on his presidency, then he dont deserve the position..
cheers
Few have mentioned that Kerry may have a strategy in mind. He may have made a blunder with his phrasing of the response to the question of supporting the war knowing what we now know. But his campaign has said that it won’t shrink back from taking on negative attacks. The question is when and how. My guess is they think it is still too early to attack Bush on his record. Kerry is still trying to define himself and his platform to the undecided voters. Once they have laid out the foundation he will come out swinging. There is no need to bring up old attacks like the AWOL charge or Bush’s oil ties. This administation has a four year record to answer for. If Kerry doesn’t make that record an issue and hit back hard with the incompetence charge he doesn’t deserve to be elected.
Bel, was there ever a time when Christians wouldn’t lie, steal, murder and pillage to get their way? Ever hear of a little thing called the Crusades? Or the Thirty Years War? More recently, the most “Christian” part of this country held their fellow men in slavery for 246 years, then erected an apartheid system whose effects are still in evidence today.
Bush and his thugs are much more steeped in the 2000-year history of Christianity than the Quakerish pacifist tradition that only began in the 17th Century.
The Washington Post has an article declaring that Al Quaida seems to be showing new signs of life. I cannot fathom how intelligent people can write articles of this nature. Where do we get the idea that Al Quaida was dieing?
Organisations of this type, with their level of organisations dont die. They go thru phases and as such, they become dormant, hibernate and in some instances, they mutate. One thing is certain, they dont die. These organisations conform very snuggly with the laws of nature and hence, those very laws perpetuate their survival. So no one should talk about the death of Al Quaida. We will all be dead and gone and they will still be hanging around in whatever form they have mutated towards in that ear, and fighting whatever is the current cause.
Dont be misled by Bush and his crew that they have done something about Al Quaida and terrorism. Its a silly statement and its not true. I cant be true. There may be latent periods, there may be a batch of docile leaders but Bush has not and will not impact on Al Quaida to the extent that they are dead.
Its like telling me that the PLO is dead… it wont die.
Cheers
If Kerry is behind in the personality arena, then I think the party should push and sell the team concept. In other words, take some of the heat from Kerry by using the edwards persona… let kerry stay focussed on the issues.
It will be very important what will be the net results of the hurricane in FLorda as it related to the elections. I am sure bush will be down there as soon as the hurricane passes, trying to show how much he cares and why they need to vote for him. I am sure he will use this event to muster more votes for himself… and the thing is, the democrats wont be able to do anything about it… no more than to use the media to higlight the possibilit of Bush politicizing the hurricane.. hmm
Again, I still dont think that Kerry is losing anything at this point. I think he has to worry after the convention. Its at that point that the worse attack dogs of the GOP will be released because it will be the last lap. I dont have enough confidence in the democrats to be prepared to counter their onslaught so I guess we have to fuel the other grass root organisations to counter their onslaught.. but it will be ravenous. Thats what I believe.
I cant help but be fascinated by the GOP…. as christian as they pretend to be, they will do anything to get their own way. Its hard to see people classify Bush as a devout christian by yet he wont denounce adverts that are distinct lies and I wont be surprised of most of those he puts his name on aint untruths too…. the GOP must be commended.
Cheers
Even if there’s some slippage for Kerry in the national polls, what matters is the swing states. Bush is getting 68% in Wyoming but 41% in Florida.
I wonder how much money and attention the Bush brothers will throw at Florida in the name of disaster relief. I guess if you’re in a swing state and you’ve got to have a disaster, now’s the time to have it.
Dismissing things as dirty politics is all well and good, but as numerous bloggers have pointed out today, the Kerry camp hasn’t explained WHY its dirty politics.
I wish RT were here to provide some analysis of the Swiftboat vet attacks. It sure seems to me that the story is dying already. I think the end result of these attacks will be to clarify that Kerry’s service record was stellar. By the way, I think Kerry is wise to avoid going so far as to mention the AWOL charge now. He is riding the high road, and that has its own advantages, because he can dismiss attacks as “dirty politics”—especially since several attacks have been shown to be baseless already.
It’s better to keep the AWOL charge for later in the campaign, if necessary. Look, the whole problem with the swiftboat ads is that they came WAY too early, which Kerry forced by emphasizing his military record. The single thing that would help Kerry most is to articulate a clear difference with Bush on Iraq; this is quite difficult to do without limiting h is options once he is President.
Shit. Don’t say that I’m going to get a drink now.
I think both camps are just throwing money and time to the wind. The polls have not changed much for months and the R convention will not make them change much either. The voters have made up thair minds and the few people who vote that haven’t don’t care untill election day is almost here. That’s why I think the debates are going to be what desides our next President. They should forget this campaining and concentrate on the debates. who ever wins those will be our next President.
According to Josh Marshall the Swift Boat Lies are getting some traction and are the primary culprit for these numbers.
I don’t think there is slipping in the Pew poll. Kerry leads by the same margin as the last.
This is two polls showing Kerry slipping. It might be right. Bush has got a clear, well-defined political strategy. He and his team are ruthless executing it.
It doesn’t appear that Kerry is ready to let the negative campaign go. He’s got his positive message, but boy is he passing up some huge opportunities by refusing to fire away.
For example, is he sure now it was a good idea not to let Democrats go after the National Guard business in the Spring? When the story had some traction.
And who’s speaking for the campaign? Does he have someone like Carville to let fly those nasty quips that reporters love to print?
You need both a good offense and defense.