March 6: Trump Job Approval Again Underwater, Where It Belongs
As an inveterate poll-watcher, I have been waiting for the moment when Donald Trump’s job approval numbers went underwater, his accustomed position for nearly all of his presidential career. It arrived around the time he made his speech to Congress, as I noted at New York:
Even as he was delivering the most partisan address to Congress maybe ever, Donald Trump’s public support seemed to be regularly eroding. An updated FiveThirtyEight average of Trump’s approval ratings on March 4 (released just as news broke that ABC was shutting down the revered data site) showed him going underwater for the first time since reoccupying the White House, with 47.6 percent approval and 47.9 percent disapproval. That puts Trump back in the same territory of public opinion he occupied during his first term as president, where (per Gallup) he never achieved more than 50 percent job approval, and averaged a mere 41 percent.
Perhaps Trump will get lucky and conditions in the country will improve enough to validate his agenda, but it’s more likely that the same sour public climate that overwhelmed Joe Biden will now afflict his predecessor and successor.
The Reuters/Ipsos survey that pushed Trump’s numbers into negative territory showed a mood very different from the 47th president’s boasts about a new “golden age” for our country:
“Thirty-four percent of Americans say that the country is headed in the right direction, compared to 49% who say it is off on the wrong track. When it comes to several specific issues, Americans are more likely to say things are off on the wrong track than going in the right direction: cost of living (22% right direction / 60% wrong track), the national economy (31% right direction / 51% wrong track), national politics (33% right direction / 50% wrong track), American foreign policy (33% right direction / 49% wrong track), and employment and jobs (33% right direction / 47% wrong track).”
So all the hype about Trump being a popular president who was in the midst of engineering a major realignment of the American electorate is already looking more than a bit hollow. Trump has a solid Republican base of support and a solid Democratic opposition, with independents currently leaning towards the Democratic Party on most issues. Perhaps Trump’s agenda will gain momentum and support, but since he’s not trying to reach out beyond his party’s base at all, he’s going to need a lift from Americans who only voted for him in 2024 as the lesser of evils and may not vote in the 2026 midterms at all.
At present Trump has lost whatever presidential “honeymoon” he initially enjoyed after his return to the White House, and needs to find new converts to return to genuine popularity. He’s not off to a great start.
Its interesting that the GOP keeps creating some unique selling points for the DEMS… This thing about keeping closed door meetings and only allowing registered GOPs inside is really utter nonsense. Its something that the DEMS can attack from a number of fronts and win some points.
In contrast, the DEMS have open house sessions for whoever wants to be there, including hecklers with megaphones. That too is a great selling point. The message is for all, even those who dont think they need it.
Things are still going well for the DEM candidates.
Big crowds, and open-to-all-comers crowds. On t’other hand, Bush has only appeared at venues that are closed to all but Bush supporters. This is very telling about how scared the Repubs really are. They are deathly afraid of having demonstrators appear in front of Bush – perhaps because he might unravel, lose his temper or something…?
I read that in Davenport, Iowa they asked people to sign a pledge of support before they were allowed in. Amazing.
Iowa Electronic Markets says Kerry is still trailing (but by less).
There are newspaper reports of big crowds in Arizona, Iowa. Big crowds in small places.
Big crowds says something is happening, something Karl Rove should be very worried about.
Social phenomena spread by crowds. They become mass phenomena that way. Once Kerry starts to attract that rock star momentum he will be very very hard to stop.
It feels as if the ground is beginning to move out there.